The UK Domestic Conservatory Market
2005 -2012 By Volume
 |
Sales of conservatories increased
substantially from the late 1990s to 2004 when they peaked at an
estimated 232,000 units, and for those years they represented the
best performing sector of any major consumer durable. At that time,
consumer awareness and interest in the product was still very high,
with most householder surveys indicating conservatories high on the
list of preferred home improvements.
However, since 2004, the conservatory market has
experienced a significant fall in demand right through to 2008,
with no prospects of any major upturn until 2010 at the earliest
depending on the length and severity of the ‘credit crunch’. As
with many higher value consumer durables, the conservatory market
has experienced rapidly deteriorating market conditions in 2008 as
consumer confidence collapses and the economy falls into recession.
As a result, overall volumes in 2008 are likely to have declined by
at least 20%, which equates to an overall decline of around 50%
from the 2004 peak.
|
PVCu remains the dominant
frame material for conservatories with an estimated current share of 85%.
Timber continues to retain popularity and now accounts for an estimated
share of around 15%, with aluminium now virtually disappearing from the
market.
In overall terms, the supply
structure is still very fragmented and there has been more consolidation
in 2007/08. The uncertainty in the housing market has started to impact
severely on the glazing and conservatory industry, with a series of
business failures in the glazing sector since late 2007, with further
casualties anticipated given volatile market conditions.
Replacement window companies
remain the major distribution channel for conservatories, accounting for
an estimated 66% of sales by volume, though the sector is very fragmented
in itself and contains a wide range of retail operations. The DIY
Multiples account for an estimated volume share of 20%, though supply
issues in late-2008 may impact on the level of commitment in the sector –
at least in the short term.
Looking to the future, it is
estimated that the decline in volume sales will continue, at least in
2009, with volumes forecast to fall to below 100,000 units reflecting an
economy in deep recession. Forecasting short term prospects, however, are
extremely difficult, with no significant reference points for
conservatories. In the recession of the early-1990s, conservatories
continued to grow strongly, but the market was in its early stages at
that period and therefore it is impossible to draw any parallels for
performance in 2009-10.
However, longer term
prospects for the conservatory market should be more positive, providing
the housing and financial markets stabilise, and our forecasts for
2010-12 indicate a modest market recovery – though it is difficult to
estimate the timing and scale of any recovery at this stage.
Conservatories still remain an attractive option for many homeowners and
relatively low penetration rates to date suggest some cause for optimism
in the medium term.
|
