|
The UK Market for Residential Doors 2005 - 2013
 The
UK market for residential doors is large but has been in steady
decline since 2002 and in 2009 faces a significant challenge in the
face of a major downturn in new housebuilding and considerably
reduced spending in the home improvement sector. The table left
highlights how the market has reduced to 2008 and our forecasts of
further decline in 2009-10 before a possible recovery later in that
year and into 2011. Our estimate of the total value of the
residential doors market in 2008 is around £998m, at manufacturers
selling prices. This is made up from the total estimated value of
the market for patio doors at around £56m, internal doors at £567m
and entrance doors at £375m.
Low
consumer confidence and uncertainty in the housing market, the
requirements of legislation and the issue of sustainability are
significant factors in this market.
Up to the
mid-1990s, the performance of the residential door market was
closely linked to the UK economy, a buoyant housing market and high
levels of consumer confidence combining to provide a strong
framework for the market. However, as the market has matured, this
link has been broken with sales relatively flat between 2002 and
2007.
In 2008, the private home improvement market for
doors has declined, with a high percentage of homes in the private
sector already fitted with replacement doors. The proportion of
‘replacements of replacements’ in this market has increased in
recent years, but this has not made up for the decline overall. The
social housing sector has been buoyant in 2007/08, with the
government’s Decent Homes initiative driving refurbishment
programmes.
Consolidation is a major feature of the doors and windows
market and the uncertainty in the housing market during 2008 and into
2009 has started to impact severely on the industry. Trade sources
indicate that there have been many business failures in the windows and
doors sector in 2007/08 in addition to some consolidation.
At the date of publication, it is extremely difficult to
forecast the timing and severity of the current downturn. The financial
climate is volatile and 2009/10 are likely to be particularly difficult
years, and for the housing market, including new build, repair and
maintenance and new conservatories, recovery is unlikely to be rapid and
will remain fragile for some time.
Forecasts for 2009 are changing constantly, but our
estimates are for a decline of 21% in value in 2008, followed by a
further decline of around 13% in 2009, before experiencing modest
recovery in 2010. This forecast may prove optimistic if market conditions
continue to deteriorate, though potentially new Government initiatives
may offset some decline.
Overall prospects in the longer term should see some
steady recovery in the market. Housebuilding levels will recover to meet
demand, though the speed of recovery remains uncertain. Replacement
demand for both external and internal doors will be dependent on a
recovery in consumer confidence.
|
