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The UK Market for Residential Doors 2005 - 2010
The residential door
market has shown steady decline up to 2007 before declining steeply
in 2008/09 and we have estimated a further decline of about 4% in
2010 over the previous year. Being linked solely with new
housebuilding and spending on home improvement it is no surprise
that the last 3 years have impacted heavily on the sales of
residential doors with low consumer confidence and uncertainty in
the housing market, the requirements of legislation and the issue
of sustainability all significant factors in this market.
Our estimate of the total
value of the residential doors market in 2010 is around £553m, at
manufacturers selling prices. This is made up from the total estimated
value of the market for patio doors at around £55m, internal doors at
£340m and entrance doors at £158 m.
The market for patio doors in
particular has been declining over the last decade and although
conservatory installation did help to maintain sales this market has also
slowed considerably in recent years. Up to 2008, the patio door market
had benefited from growth in the new build sector, in addition the
proportion of patio doors is estimated to have increased as the
proportion of flats being built has increased, however 2010 has seen a
change in the housing mix with flats in the private sector declining to
40% of total housing compared to 50% in earlier years.
Recent years have seen both
sales turnover and profit margins decline for many door manufacturers
with raw materials continuing to rise. Although there has been
comparatively little consolidation during 2010 it is hard to see how many
companies will survive lower sales and reduced profit margins without the
need to either merge or be subject to acquisition.
New housebuilding completions
(not sales) declined substantially in 2010 (-12 %) following 2 years of
negative growth as a result of the credit crunch and the subsequent
housing market recession although there was a substantial increase in new
housing starts in the year. Housing starts in 2010 in England were up 32%
on the previous year and it is estimated that there will be an increase
in housing starts in Wales, Scotland and N. Ireland - although much more
modest by comparison. The considerable growth in starts in England which
is by far the largest market in the UK for new build residential doors
should see a modest rise in the residential doors market overall which we
forecast will be around 3%, from £553m to £572m in 2011.and this should
go some way to help the market recover modestly during 2011.
Home improvement is by far
the largest market for residential doors - around 80% of total - and
contractors output in RMI (repairs, maintenance and improvement) in both
the private and public housing sectors in 2010 has shown marginal decline
of around 1% compared to the previous year. There is still ongoing
funding under the Decent Homes programme, detailed in the report, which
will carry through until 2015, although cuts in public sector expenditure
will no doubt affect refurbishment projects. In the private sector,
however, RMI is forecast to slowly recover over the next 3-4 years.
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