Within the UK new housing market, timber frame
houses account for around 34,000 units across the private and
social housebuilding sectors in 2005. According to trade sources
the self build sector accounts for around an additional 3,000
timber frame houses, though these are primarily kit form units.
In England, timber frame’s share of new house
starts has almost quadrupled in the last 6 years from 3% to 11%,
but is still very low compared to many other developed
countries. This growth has been due mainly to a buoyant
housebuilding market coupled with a political drive for a
greater use of modern methods of construction in the South of
England.
This more rapid rise in England reflects growing
pressure on site skills and affordability of housing as
developers look towards timber frame (and other MMC) usage in
both the private and social housing sectors. More specifically,
timber frame is particularly attractive in the construction of
affordable housing which can cover both private and social
sectors.
At present, it is the Housing Corporation and
English Partnerships with their insistence on minimum levels of
MMC that is underpinning construction of timber frame housing in
England. Historically, timber frame has been much lower in
England due primarily to adverse publicity in the 1980s and it
has taken 20 years to recover from this negative image.
Evidence of cost differences between MMC (mainly
timber frame) and traditional brick and block construction has
been difficult to identify. However, recent surveys suggest
that there is now little difference in the cost between these
two methods which may encourage further growth in timber frame.
The 2006–08 National Affordable Housing Programme
(formally the Approved Development Programme) is a key strategic
investment programme to fund high quality affordable homes and
at £3.9 billion will be largest ever investment programme to
date.
The recent high growth rate in MMC, and
consequently timber frame housing in England, has been primarily
driven by the supply and demand of affordable housing.
Since 2000, construction of timber frame houses
in England has grown from 8,500 units to an estimated 19,700 – a
growth rate of 132%. This growth rate is a result of the
political drive to build low cost affordable homes more quickly
than traditional brick and block construction. Timber frame has
also grown in popularity in Wales and Northern Ireland where
volumes have more than doubled in the past 5 years. Scotland,
although showing steady growth rates in recent years, has fallen
behind England in volume and growth rate terms, constructing an
estimated 15,000 timber frame houses in 2005 – historically,
timber frame has always been more popular in Scotland.
Volumes of timber frame housing vary throughout
the Regions depending on government led initiatives such as the
Sustainable Communities Plan , the Northern Way and the proposed
Solent Gateway. All of these initiatives, many of which still
need to be agreed by the local communities, will require high
volumes of affordable housing in regions such as London, the
South East and Eastern England.
The volume of timber frame flats constructed in
the UK has risen considerably since 2000. The majority of this
growth has been in England and is a result of the need to build
at higher densities because of land prices and availability.
The highest volume of timber frame multi storey
flats has, in recent years, been in the 1-3 storey range and we
estimate that about 80% or 8,000 of these will be started in
2005 with approximately 2000 being started in the 4+ storeys
category.
Whereas construction of timber frame and
traditional brick and block multi storey flats of 1-3 storeys
has grown significantly in the last 5 years the market share of
traditional brick and block in the same category has declined
from 95% to an estimated 86% in 2005. Conversely, timber frame
has more than doubled market share in the same period. Equally,
steel and concrete MMC are growing in the flats sector and
compete directly with timber frame.
Flats of 1-3 storeys now form a substantial
proportion of total timber frame housing in England. Timber
frame starts in 2005 are estimated at 17,800 (excluding self
build) of which approximately 8,000 will be flats of between 1-3
storeys. Regional differences are dependent on the political
agenda with regard to affordable homes targets and it is London
and the South East which constitutes over 50% of total
completions in 2004.
Overall, timber frame housing in the UK could
increase from current volumes of around 37,000 in 2005
(including self-build) to around 55,000 units in the 5 year
period to 2010, representing average annual growth rates of
around 7 - 8%. The strongest growth rates are forecast in the
affordable housing sector - a combination of social housing for
rent and government subsidised housing for part ownership. More
modest growth rates are expected in the self build sector.
Ultimately, medium-longer term growth prospects
will be dependent on underlying growth in housing completions,
particularly low-cost housing. Current supply levels are well
below demand and there is a strong need to increase volumes in
key regions of the country. Prospects for timber frame will
also be dependent on overall housing levels, acceptance levels
of MMC (in both the public and private sectors) and attitudes
towards timber, steel and concrete in different applications.
Indications are that there are around 100
suppliers of timber frame housing in the UK, reflecting the
highly fragmented supply structure of the whole sector. It is
also worth emphasising that several leading manufacturers are
based in Scotland (Stewart Milne, Walker Timber, Robertson),
reflecting the traditional dominance of the region in timber
frame housing. However, there are some other significant
players including Space 4, Prestoplan, Pinewood, Pace, Century
etc.
