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The timber frame housing market is
comprised of 2 distinct sectors. Firstly, pre fabricated panels
which are produced in manufacturing operations with a typical output
of between 1200-4000 housing units a year and who supply to the
major housebuilders and, secondly, timber frame kits from suppliers
who each produce up to 1000 a year and supply mainly to the self
build market and some to housebuilders.
AMA estimate that, in
2007, the number of timber frame completions for residential
housing was around 45,000, which represents growth of 134% over
2000 levels.
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The forecast growth in timber
frame houses in the 5 years from 2007-2012 is expected to be around 25%
across all housebuilding sectors in the UK. The private housebuilding
sector currently accounts for the dominant market share of around 69%,
with the social sector at 23% and the self build sector accounting for
around 8%. However, our forecasts show that providing the Government
delivers what has been promised in terms of affordable housing, the growth
rate of timber frame in the social and private sectors in England will be
strong.
The focus on MMC (Modern Methods of Construction) and OSM
(Off Site Manufacturing) has increased significantly in the last 5 years,
primarily driven by the Government to improve quality, speed and delivery
of housing, and overcome the significant problems of supply shortages in
many parts of the UK. Growth of timber frame will be dependent on the
acceptability and growth of other materials used in MMC, such as steel and
concrete, which are also gaining acceptance in many application sectors.
The National Affordable Housing
Programme (NAHP) 2008-11 commences on 1 April 2008 and includes a target
to increase output by up to 100% over the next 3 years to around 70,000
annual completions – though many regard this as a very ambitious target..
New government funding is conditional on committing at least 25% of the
development budget to MMC – in reality this figure much higher at almost
50%, with timber frame a major beneficiary.
Manufacturers of prefabricated
panels will need to be convinced that there is sufficient demand for
timber framed houses before investing further by increasing plant capacity
or building new facilities dedicated to timber frame production. This
demand will only come about if the major builders are convinced that there
is public acceptability in the private and social sectors and there is
evidence that the cost differential between timber frame and traditional
brick and block construction is relatively favourable.
The short to medium term future
for timber frame houses although still optimistic remains more uncertain.
This primarily reflects the high uncertainty surrounding the housebuilding
market in general in early 2008. Housing completions are likely to fall in
the short term in response to a downturn in prices and a loss of consumer
confidence, which will inevitably impact on all materials, but the medium
term prospects remain optimistic, particularly if targets for affordable
housing are achieved.
AMA Research’s report “Timber Frame Housing Market”
is available in hard copy or electronic format for £625 and can be ordered
online at
www.amaresearch.co.uk
or by calling 0871 3103450.
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