Construction and Housing Forecast Bulletin - GB 2017-2021
Issue 37 - July 2017
Introduction and Overview
The 'Construction and Housing Forecast Bulletin - GB' is published four times a year. The bulletin provides analysis of the overall construction market in current prices, in terms of new work and RMI activity, also public and private sectors and detailed reviews of the two main sectors with sub-sector analysis for quarterly output and new orders, housing starts and completions, new work and RMI, as well as forecasts of new work and RMI activity to 2021.
Data sources used in the compilation of this report include government statistics, existing published data, websites, trade magazines, etc, while a range of interviews with construction product suppliers, distributors, etc has also contributed to the development of the report. In addition, our research background in construction and related sectors has been used to provide an understanding of the market and key factors that could influence trends and forecasts for the construction industry.
Each Issue covers:
- Recent and current trends in the construction industry in Great Britain
- Changes in output overall and by residential and non-residential sectors.
- Revised forecasts based on the latest statistics and information available
- Key influencing factors: GDP growth, inflation, interest rates etc.
- Impact of government strategy and review.
- Forecasts to 2021 for new work and RMI in each of the residential and non-residential sectors.
Issue 37 Includes:
This issue of the bulletin includes preliminary data for Q1 2017, for output and new orders for total GB construction as well as the residential and non-residential sectors. Non-residential new work decreased by 4% in Q1 2017, whilst residential new work decreased by 6% following 4% growth in Q4 2016. Into H2 2017, the construction sector remains relatively positive but with evidence of a slowing of the growth rates for the residential and offices sectors, in particular. The industrial sector has been affected by the uncertainty of the UK's position post 2019 with both output and new orders showing significant decreases. The residential sector remains positive on the whole but with sales of new houses reported by leading national housebuilders as being "on target". However, there are increasing concerns regarding affordability particularly given the winding down process for some mortgage assistance programmes. This more modest forecast takes into account the slowing of new orders in H2 2016 and Q1 2017 coupled with the continuing uncertainty surrounding the Brexit process affecting the timing of business investment decisions, alongside the uncertainty created by the election result.
- Actual figures for the full year 2016 & preliminary for Q1 2017 - construction output (new work and RMI) and new orders.
- Sector performance since 2012 with detailed analysis of output and new orders.
- Forecasts to 2021 in the residential and the non-residential sub-sectors, including the potential impact of Brexit on construction activity.
- Recovery in the residential sector in particular, also in the private commercial non-residential sector.
- Output mix by new work and RMI.
- 57 pages of analysis and informed reporting with 41 tables and charts.
- Comment and interpretation on trends and forecasts.
Construction Sectors Covered:
- Private Housing
- Public Housing
- Leisure & Entertainment
- Agriculture & Misc.
How to Subscribe
A subscription to the Forecast Bulletin costs £395 per annum for four quarterly issues in PDF format, delivered electronically. The subscription price includes a 3-user license allowing subscribers to circulate report content freely within their organisation.
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