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Housebuilding Market Report - UK 2016-2020 Analysis

Published: 26/07/2016 / Number of Pages: 102 / Price: £795.00

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Introduction and Overview

The 12th edition of this report reviews the UK housebuilding market, and should be of particular interest to private housebuilders, developers, housing associations, local authorities, private and social housing contractors and their supply chains. In 2015, low interest rates and low unemployment, rising incomes and high consumer confidence have all helped underpin the strongest trading conditions for the housebuilding sector for a number of years. The referendum decision to leave the EU has resulted in some economic uncertainty and housebuilders are likely to remain cautious in the short term, which may result in a lower level of housing starts.

Key sections covered:

  • Market overview - structure and size of the UK Housebuilding market in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland - in terms of housing stock, housebuilding targets, performance, starts and completions.
  • Government policy for housing - e.g. Housing & Planning Bill.
  • A review of the housebuilders - overall market performance, market shares and company profiles.
  • Forecast of annual housebuilding - starts and completions to 2020-21.
  • Analysis and discussion of the potential impact of the EU Referendum results on the housing market.

Key areas of insight include:

  • While housing completions have increased significantly between 2013 and 2015, they still remain significantly below the pre-recession peak of 218,000.
  • Review of Government measures to increase housebuilding rates including plans for 200,000 starter homes and 135,000 shared ownership homes.
  • Review of planning reforms set out in the Housing and Planning Bill, which aims to release more publicly-owned land for starter homes and facilitate housing development on brownfield sites.
  • Review of the impact of Help to Buy on the house-building market, which has been credited with a recent increase in housing starts and is now being extended to 2021.
  • Analysis of the use of Build-to-Rent as a means of increasing housing supply.
  • Analysis of key constraints to housing development including delays in the planning system, the problem of land supply and availability and the lack of skilled labour in the construction industry.
  • Analysis of leading UK housebuilders and developers: activities, completion levels, future strategies and development pipelines.
  • Smaller builders continue to struggle to secure funding and this is restricting the scale of projects undertaken.

Some of the companies included:

A & J Stephen (Builders) Ltd, Abbey New Homes, Argent, Avant Homes, Balfour Beatty, Barratt Developments, Bellway, Berkeley Group, Bewley Homes Plc, Bloor Homes, Bovis Homes Group Plc, CALA, Connolly Homes, Countryside Properties, Crest Nicholson, Croudace Homes Group, Durkan Ltd, Elan Homes, Fairview New Homes, Galliard Homes, Galliford Try Plc, Hill Partnership, Hopkins Homes, Inland Homes, Jelson Homes, Keepmoat, Kendrick Homes, Kier Group, Laing O'Rourke, Land Securities, MacTaggart & Mickel, McCarthy & Stone, Martin Grant Homes, The Miller Group, MJ Gleeson Group, M organ Sindall, Morris Homes, Norfolk Homes, Persimmon Plc, Quintain, Redrow Group, Scotia Homes, Shepherd Homes, Stewart Milne Group, Strata Homes, Taylor Wimpey Plc, Telford Homes, Tulloch Homes Group, Wainhomes, Weston Homes Plc, Willmott Dixon

Market Review

  • Housebuilding targets and market performance - housing starts, completions and forecasts from 2011-2020. The impact of the EU referendum on the housing sector and other key market influences..
  • Public and private sector housebuilding - UK completions by sector and by region/country 2011-2016.
  • Segmentation of the housing market - by type of dwelling, e.g. houses and flats and the custom build/self-build segment.
  • Land and house prices - average house prices, house prices by country, mortgage lending and housing affordability, land values and housing construction costs.
  • Existing housing stock and residential property transactions.

Government Policy for Housing

  • Government Housing Policy - Housing and Planning Bill, 2015 Spending Review, 2016 Budget and Government policies to increase housebuilding 2016 to 2020.
  • Low Cost Home Ownership Schemes: Statutory Purchase Schemes; Equity Loan Schemes; Affordable Homes Programme 2011-2015 and 2015-18.
  • Planning Issues: Housing and Planning Bill; Land Availability and Land Values; Use of public sector and Brownfield Land for housing; Housebuilders Land-banks.

Housing and Planning

  • Brownfield sites, land availability (housebuilders land banks, use of public sector land for schemes.)
  • Sustainability and Housebuilding, e.g. Energy Efficiency.
  • Other measures to improve housing supply: Eco Towns and Garden Cities; Housing Zones and the NHS Healthy New Towns Programme.

The Housebuilders

  • Analysis of market shares of leading housebuilders - key players, comparisons of changing shares and supply structure.
  • Housebuilders and the Private Rented/Build to Rent Sector.
  • Major review of leading national housebuilders - analysis of key indicators for UK housebuilding (completions, turnover, private/affordable mixes, apartments etc, where available), recent trends, current market position etc.
  • Rationalisation of industry structure, mergers & acquisitions, review of leading commercial developers in housebuilding, impact of new entrants, future prospects etc.
  • Review of leading regional and local housebuilders, recent corporate activity. Analysis covering turnover, pre-tax profit, completions etc.

Report Summary

The UK housebuilding market remains buoyant after a successful year in 2015 boosted by good mortgage availability, high consumer confidence and a number of government schemes for first-time buyers. This includes the extension of Help to Buy until 2021, as well as the launch of a Help to Buy ISA to top up first-time buyers' savings for a deposit. Total annual housing starts have experienced good growth from 2013-2015, and rose by 6% in 2015, and annual housing completions increased significantly in 2015 by 19%. In the medium to longer term, a number of factors will provide underlying support for the housebuilding sector. However, prospects for output growth in the residential sector are likely to be affected by the decision to leave the EU. Lower levels of investment and economic uncertainty are likely to result in the housebuilders taking a more cautious approach in the short term, with a lower level of starts expected in 2017. The impact is likely to vary on a regional scale with investment in upmarket London developments more severely affected due to the high level of overseas investors in recent years. In the short to medium term, the economic uncertainty is expected to continue while the Brexit package is negotiated.

Private sector housing completions in the UK increased by 17% in 2015. These increases have been driven by demographic changes, a higher demand for family homes, competitive mortgage deals and an upsurge in the wider UK economy, with demand also driven by government policies, including Help to Buy. Average house prices have risen by around 45% since 2005, whilst, at the same time, average prices for new dwellings have risen by around 30 in the same time period. The situation in the social housing sector is less positive, with variable completion levels in recent years falling well below Government targets. However, in the medium to longer term, the social housing sector should be supported by a number of Government initiatives to boost levels of affordable and social housing - presuming these initiatives will go ahead following the referendum decision. The impact of a reduction in revenue streams for housing associations and local authorities and cuts to social rents in 2016 is likely to be tempered by affordable housing programmes.

The number of larger housebuilders, building over 500 units a year, has remained more or less stable in 2015. The volume builders have begun to experience healthy levels of recovery over the last 18 months - 2 years and there has been a substantial turn in the market back towards larger builders. However, smaller builders continue to struggle to secure funding and this is restricting the scale of projects undertaken. Small and medium-sized builders were worst affected by the downturn and are still finding many barriers to developing new homes. The impact of the recession has led to a highly concentrated housebuilding market in the UK with the vast majority of all private sector output now being produced by the largest housebuilders. Joint ventures between construction groups and commercial developers had been a major trend in the housebuilding sector for a number of years, partly due to the Government's drive to see more mixed-use developments and urban regeneration.

In 2015, the Government set ambitious targets in an attempt to tackle the housing crisis and get more new homes built over the course of the current parliament. As part of these plans, the Government set a target of delivering 1m new homes by 2020, of which 400,000 will be affordable homes. A number of new policies were announced as part of delivering these targets. These commitments will be principally delivered through planning reforms to release more publicly-owned land for starter homes and require a proportion of starter homes to be developed as part of section 106 affordable housing contributions. In January 2016, the Government also announced a £1.2bn fund to build 30,000 affordable 'starter homes' on underused brownfield land in the next 5 years. However, despite these reforms current rates of housebuilding are still way below government targets and the level needed to meet existing and anticipated demand for new homes. This consistent and chronic undersupply of house building, combined with government policies in recent years has led to consistent increases in house prices and a fall in affordability, especially in key areas of demand.


List of Report Contents

  1. Contents Listing
  2. 1. INTRODUCTION 8
  3. 1.1 INTRODUCTION 8
  4. 1.2 SOURCES OF INFORMATION 9
  5. 2. SUMMARY AND FUTURE PROSPECTS 10
  6. 2.1 SUMMARY 10
  7. 2.2 GOVERNMENT DRIVERS AND MARKET PROSPECTS 12
  8. 3. ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT 14
  9. 3.1 GDP 14
  10. 3.2 INFLATION & INTEREST RATES 16
  11. 3.3 UNEMPLOYMENT 17
  12. 3.4 HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION 17
  13. 3.5 HOUSING & CONSTRUCTION 18
  14. 3.6 STERLING 18
  15. 3.7 POPULATION PROFILE 19
  16. 3.8 CONCLUSIONS 19
  17. 4. THE HOUSING MARKET 21
  18. 4.1 DEFINITION 21
  19. 4.2 HOUSEBUILDING TARGETS AND HOUSING MARKET PERFORMANCE 21
  20. 4.2.1 Overview 21
  21. 4.2.2 Housebuilding Performance 23
  22. 4.2.3 Housing Starts 25
  23. 4.2.4 Housing Completions 26
  24. 4.3 IMPACT OF THE EU REFERENDUM AND MARKET PROSPECTS 27
  25. 4.4 SEGMENTATION OF THE HOUSING MARKET 28
  26. 4.4.1 Segmentation by Region 28
  27. 4.4.2 Segmentation by Property Tenure - England 29
  28. 4.4.3 Segmentation by Type of Dwelling - Houses and Flats 32
  29. 4.4.4 Custom Build / Self-build Segment 34
  30. 4.5 NET ADDITIONAL DWELLINGS 39
  31. 4.6 LAND AND HOUSE PRICES, BUILD COSTS 41
  32. 4.6.1 Average House Prices 41
  33. 4.6.2 House Prices by Country and Region 42
  34. 4.6.3 Mortgage Lending and Housing Affordability 43
  35. 4.6.4 Land Values 45
  36. 4.6.5 Housing Construction Costs 46
  37. 4.7 EXISTING HOMES MARKET 47
  38. 4.7.1 Residential Property Transactions 47
  39. 4.7.2 Existing Housing Stock 48
  40. 5. GOVERNMENT POLICY FOR HOUSING 50
  41. 5.1 FIXING THE FOUNDATIONS - GOVERNMENT'S PLAN FOR INCREASING PRODUCTIVITY 50
  42. 5.2 HOUSING AND PLANNING BILL 52
  43. 5.3 GOVERNMENT SPENDING 54
  44. 5.3.1 2015 Spending Review 54
  45. 5.3.2 2016 Budget 54
  46. 5.4 LOW COST HOME OWNERSHIP SCHEMES 55
  47. 5.4.1 Statutory Purchase Schemes 55
  48. 5.4.2 Equity Loan Schemes 57
  49. 5.4.3 Other Schemes 61
  50. 5.4.4 Affordable Homes Programme (AHP) 61
  51. 6. HOUSING AND PLANNING 66
  52. 6.1 HOUSING AND PLANNING BILL 66
  53. 6.2 BROWNFIELD SITES 67
  54. 6.3 LAND AVAILABILITY 68
  55. 6.3.1 Housebuilders' Land Banks 68
  56. 6.3.2 Use of Public Sector Land for PRS schemes 69
  57. 6.4 HOUSING ZONES 69
  58. 6.5 ECO TOWNS AND GARDEN CITIES 72
  59. 6.5.1 Eco Towns 72
  60. 6.5.2 Garden Cities 72
  61. 6.5.3 NHS Healthy New Towns Programme 73
  62. 6.6 ENVIRONMENTAL INFLUENCES 74
  63. 6.6.1 Code for Sustainable Homes 74
  64. 6.6.2 Energy Efficiency (SAP) 75
  65. 7. THE HOUSEBUILDERS 76
  66. 7.1 DEFINITIONS 76
  67. 7.2 OVERALL MARKET PERFORMANCE 76
  68. 7.2.1 Current Supply Structure 76
  69. 7.2.2 Housebuilders - Key Trends in 2015 and 2016 78
  70. 7.2.3 Housebuilders and the Private Rented/Build to Rent (PRS) Sector 79
  71. 7.3 HOUSEBUILDERS MARKET SHARES 81
  72. 7.4 COMPANY PROFILES 83
  73. 7.4.1 National Housebuilders 83
  74. 7.4.2 Other Housebuilders 93
  75. 7.4.3 Construction Groups and Developers 95
  76. 7.4.4 Regional and Local Housebuilders 99
  1. Tables & Charts
  2. CHART 1 UK HOUSEBUILDING STARTS AND COMPLETIONS FORECAST 2011-2020 10
  3. TABLE 2 GDP DATA - 2013-2016 - KEY CONSTITUENT ELEMENTS 15
  4. CHART 3 INTEREST RATES AND INFLATION (CPI) FROM 2000-2020 16
  5. CHART 4 PDI & SAVINGS RATIO AT CURRENT PRICES 2000-2020 17
  6. TABLE 5 EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONS 2012-2017 - STERLING TO THE DOLLAR, AND THE EURO, SPOT RATES 19
  7. CHART 6 HOUSEBUILDING STARTS & COMPLETIONS AND FORECASTS (UK) BY NUMBER OF DWELLINGS 2011 -2020 23
  8. TABLE 7 UK HOUSING STARTS - ALL PRIVATE AND LOCAL AUTHORITY 2011-2020 (VOLUME OF DWELLINGS) 25
  9. TABLE 8 UK - NEW HOUSING COMPLETIONS 2011-2020 (VOLUME OF DWELLINGS) 26
  10. CHART 9 TOTAL HOUSEBUILDING COMPLETIONS - 2015 BY COUNTRY (% SHARE BY NUMBER OF COMPLETIONS) 29
  11. TABLE 10 ENGLAND - HOUSING STARTS 2011 TO 2020 BY SECTOR ('000) - PRIVATE, PRP AND LOCAL AUTHORITY 30
  12. CHART 11 PRIVATE HOUSEBUILDING COMPLETIONS- ENGLISH LOCAL ENTERPRISE PARTNERSHIP (LEP) REGIONS BY VOLUME 2011 & 2015 30
  13. CHART 12 PUBLIC SECTOR HOUSEBUILDING COMPLETIONS 2011-2015 - ENGLISH LOCAL ENTERPRISE PARTNERSHIP (LEP) REGIONS BY VOLUME 31
  14. CHART 13 HOUSING COMPLETIONS IN ENGLAND - MIX BY TYPE OF HOME 2005-2020 (% BY VOLUME) 32
  15. CHART 14 UK SELF-BUILD MARKET - COMPLETIONS BY VOLUME 2011-2021 ('000 DWELLINGS) 35
  16. TABLE 15 COMPONENTS OF NET HOUSING SUPPLY IN ENGLAND 2011 TO 2016 - NEW BUILD, CONVERSIONS, CHANGE OF USE, DEMOLITIONS 40
  17. CHART 16 UK - AVERAGE PRICE OF NEW DWELLINGS 2005 -2015 (£) 41
  18. CHART 17 UK HOUSE PRICE TRENDS - NEW DWELLINGS - 2005-2015 BY COUNTRY (AVERAGE PRICE £) 42
  19. TABLE 18 AVERAGE PRICE OF NEW DWELLINGS 2010-2015 BY ENGLISH REGION (£) 43
  20. TABLE 19 AFFORDABILITY FACTORS - SIMPLE AVERAGE PRICE, MORTGAGE ADVANCE AND INCOME (£M) FOR NEW AND ALL DWELLINGS 2005 - 2015 44
  21. TABLE 20 UK RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY TRANSACTIONS VALUED AT £40K OR ABOVE 2011-2020 47
  22. TABLE 21 STAMP DUTY LAND TAX (SDLT) - STANDARD RATES AND ADDITIONAL HOME/BUY TO LET RATES (AS OF 1ST APRIL 2016) 48
  23. TABLE 22 STOCK OF DWELLINGS IN THE UK - 2004-05 TO 2014-15 ('000) 48
  24. TABLE 23 RIGHT TO BUY SALES IN ENGLAND - Q1 2006-07 TO Q1 2014-15 56
  25. TABLE 24 RIGHT TO ACQUIRE SALES IN ENGLAND - 2006-07-2014-15 56
  26. TABLE 25 SOCIAL HOMEBUY SALES IN ENGLAND - 2006-07 TO 2014-15 57
  27. TABLE 26 HELP TO BUY SALES IN ENGLAND - 2013 - 2015 BY NUMBER OF LEGAL COMPLETIONS AND VALUE OF EQUITY LOANS (£M) 58
  28. TABLE 27 HELP TO BUY - % OF HOUSEBUILDER COMPLETIONS BY COMPANY 59
  29. TABLE 28 HELP TO BUY SCOTLAND - PARTICIPATING HOUSEBUILDERS 60
  30. TABLE 29 ENGLAND - AFFORDABLE HOMES PROGRAMME 2011-2015 - TOTAL FUNDING AND NUMBER OF UNITS BY HCA OPERATING UNIT (£M/DWELLINGS) 62
  31. TABLE 30 ENGLAND - AFFORDABLE HOMES PROGRAMME 2015-2018 - TOTAL FUNDING AND NUMBER OF UNITS BY HCA OPERATING UNIT (£M/DWELLINGS) 63
  32. TABLE 31 ENGLAND - AFFORDABLE HOMES PROGRAMME 2015-18 - GRANTS TO TOP HOUSING ASSOCIATIONS AND HOUSEBUILDERS (£M) AND NO. OF HOMES PLANNED 64
  33. TABLE 32 LONDON - MAYOR'S HOUSING COVENANT PROGRAMME 2015-18 - GRANTS AWARDED TO TOP HOUSING ASSOCIATIONS (£M) 65
  34. TABLE 33 HOUSEBUILDERS' LAND BANKS BY APPROX. NO. UNITS 2015 68
  35. TABLE 34 HOUSING ZONES IN THE UK BY REGION 70
  36. TABLE 35 LONDON HOUSING ZONES BY BOROUGH 71
  37. TABLE 36 NHS HEALTHY NEW TOWNS PROGRAMME - SELECTED SITES BY NO. RESIDENTIAL UNITS 74
  38. CHART 37 ESTIMATED % OF HOUSEBUILDERS BY NUMBER OF COMPLETIONS 2015 77
  39. TABLE 38 UK HOUSEBUILDERS (COMPLETING 500+ UNITS PER YEAR) - NUMBER OF COMPLETIONS AND MARKET SHARE 2015 82
  40. TABLE 39 UK HOUSEBUILDING KEY INDICATORS- BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS PLC 2010-2015 (TURNOVER, UNIT COMPLETIONS AND TENURE MIX) 84
  41. TABLE 40 UK HOUSEBUILDING KEY INDICATORS - PERSIMMON 2010-2015 (TURNOVER, UNIT COMPLETIONS AND TENURE MIX) 85
  42. TABLE 41 UK HOUSEBUILDING KEY INDICATORS - TAYLOR WIMPEY PLC 2010-2015 (TURNOVER, UNIT COMPLETIONS AND TENURE MIX) 86
  43. TABLE 42 UK HOUSEBUILDING KEY INDICATORS - BELLWAY 2010-2015 (TURNOVER, UNIT COMPLETIONS AND TENURE MIX) 87
  44. TABLE 43 UK HOUSEBUILDING KEY INDICATORS - REDROW 2010-2015 (TURNOVER, UNIT COMPLETIONS AND TENURE MIX) 88
  45. TABLE 44 UK HOUSEBUILDING KEY INDICATORS - BOVIS HOMES 2010-2015 (TURNOVER, UNIT COMPLETIONS AND TENURE MIX) 89
  46. TABLE 45 UK HOUSEBUILDING KEY INDICATORS - BERKELEY GROUP 2010-2015 (TURNOVER, UNIT COMPLETIONS AND AVERAGE SELLING PRICE) 90
  47. TABLE 46 UK HOUSEBUILDING KEY INDICATORS - GALLIFORD TRY 2010-2015 (TURNOVER, UNIT COMPLETIONS AND AVERAGE SELLING PRICE) 90
  48. TABLE 47 UK HOUSEBUILDING KEY INDICATORS - CREST NICHOLSON 2010-2015 (TURNOVER, UNIT COMPLETIONS AND AVERAGE SELLING PRICE) 91
  49. TABLE 48 UK HOUSEBUILDING KEY INDICATORS - COUNTRYSIDE PROPERTIES 2010-2015 (TURNOVER, UNIT COMPLETIONS AND AVERAGE SELLING PRICE) 92

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