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Housing Associations Market Report - UK 2016-2020 Analysis

Published: 28/01/2016 / Number of Pages: 106 / Price: £745.00

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Introduction and Overview

The 11th edition of the 'Housing Associations Market Report - UK 2016-2020 Analysis' represents a unique, up to date review of the market and its development. The report provides a quantiative and qualitative analysis of the Private Registered Providers (more generally known as housing associations) market focusing on market size and trends, housing mix, new development pipelines and future prospects.

Key sections covered:

  • Review of the UK social housing market - local authority and housing association sectors - size, structure, growth, political issues, future trends.
  • Identification of major housing associations - England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
  • New build - review of AHP programmes - future prospects.
  • Repair, maintenance and improvement (RMI) - expenditure levels, activity, trends and forecasts.
  • Future prospects - funding, changing roles of HA's and local authorities, stock transfer, public/private funding, new build programmes.

Key areas of insight include:

  • Market activity levels with forecasts to 2019/20, including stock, new build completions and refurbishment.
  • Review of housebuilding targets under the AHP 2011-15 and 2015-18 and the London Mayor's Housing Covenant 2015-18.
  • Top 30 HAs with development pipelines/volume estimates - profiles of top players. Review of starts/completions so far under AHP, changing portfolios etc.
  • Intention to double the annual public housing budget to £2bn pa in 2018/19 and 2019/20 - 400,000 affordable new homes by end of the current Parliament.
  • Procurement issues - key contractors, framework agreements, consortia (Alliance, PEI etc.).
  • Review of key market influences and schemes - HCA funding, 'London Help to Buy' and Help to Buy shared ownership scheme, Affordable Rents Model etc.

Housing Associations Market

  • Review of social housing structure. Market size in stock terms from 2006 with forecasts through to 2018. Overview of total UK housing stock/share by sector, regional mix. Mix between LA's and HA's - changing trends.
  • Market size - Social Housing new build starts and completions - forecast through to 2019/20.
  • Analysis of Repair Maintenance and Improvement in Housing Association properties - Total RMI spend up to 2019 - breakdown of major repairs, planned maintenance etc. Decent Homes Programme - backlog volumes, funding support up to 2018.
  • Review of key market influences - economic factors, government policies, housing affordability, Large Scale Voluntary Transfers, Right to Buy, etc.
  • Key regulatory and funding organisations and their role (HCA, National Housing Federation etc). Planning issues.
  • Future prospects for the market.

Housing Associations

  • Review of major Housing Associations - dwelling stock, key characteristics, regional strengths, market positioning etc in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
  • Market shares/Units managed of major HA's in each of England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland - mix of stock by HA size and region in 2015.
  • Housing Associations developing new business models - regional breakdown within shared ownership, Top 15 HA ExtraCare Housing providers, Top 20 Voluntary Sector providers of care homes, HA's providing purpose built student accommodation etc.

Social Housing Development Plans

  • Overview of HCA funding in 2015-2018.
  • Review of key government affordable housing programmes - end of 2011-2015 AHP programme, new AHP (Affordable Homes Programme) - investment levels 2015-2018. Split by year by value and volume. Review of programmes in England and Scotland.
  • New Build programmes - targets, grants awarded to key HAs - key players in the development market.
  • G15 top HAs with development pipelines/volume estimates up to 2020.
  • Alternative financing - sources of private finance, major lenders, areas of significant expenditure. New entrants/schemes. Recent bond issues.

Specification and Buying Process

  • Specification process - key influencers on the process.
  • Growth of buying consortia - Alliance - procurement initiative between Procurement for Housing, Fusion 21 and Northern Housing Consortium. Re:allies consortia etc.
  • Buying and specification - partnering arrangements, framework agreements (New Build frameworks), PEI (Procurement Efficiency Initiative) - 13 consortia.
  • Key contractors - key schemes, value of contracts. Future trends and changes.

Report Summary

Housing associations form the largest not-for-profit group in the country, working closely with both private and public organisations. In 2015, total UK housing association stock increased to 2,828,000 units with increases in all types of housing. Around 75% of market stock owned or managed by housing associations is general needs housing, which is primarily social rental accommodation. Though the housing association sector is diverse, with over 1,700 UK associations varying in size from under 10 homes to more than 50,000, over 95% of homes are managed by the top 400 housing associations.

There is currently a period of unprecedented change in the sector, with changes to the welfare system and a greater use of the Affordable Rents Model representing new challenges. In addition, the policies of the government to increase the supply of affordable housing are now firmly focused on home ownership rather than affordable housing for rent. A number of housing associations are considering building more private rented housing - known as 'build to rent' - to fund development. Indeed, some major housing associations have now dropped affordable and social rent from their development plans, in a response to government cuts and changes outlined in the 2015 Budget.

Housing associations now face significant new risks - not least the introduction of the Affordable Rent investment model which is expected to have a considerable effect on income streams. The Government acknowledged a number of challenges to the housing association sector in the 2015 Budget, including a decision to impose a 1% annual rent reduction in the social rented sector for 4 years from April 2016, which will directly reduce social landlords' rental income and welfare payments made to tenants. Further reforms to the social housing sector are also expected under the Government's Housing and Planning Bill 2015, which had its second reading in the Commons on 2nd November 2015. The Bill aims to provide legislation for the creation of more affordable homes, with a focus on 'starter homes' and 'custom or self-built' homes, for increased home ownership.

Going forward, prospects for the housing association sector in the short-term remain challenging. The Government's focus on starter homes is likely to be led by private sector developers exempted from Section 106 obligations, rather than building by councils or housing associations. The limited grant funding under the AHP, driven by the emphasis by the Government on the Affordable Rent investment model, will also severely affect housing association building activity. In addition, revenue streams are also likely to be sharply reduced by welfare changes and housing associations will find their capacity to borrow or secure finance from capital markets will continue to be constrained. In 2015-16, the number of HA completions is expected to rise by around 2% and thereafter are expected to remain in relatively flat until 2019. The sector is forecasting around 170,000 homes to be built by housing associations across the UK.


List of Report Contents

  1. Contents Listing
  2. 1. INTRODUCTION 8
  3. 2. SUMMARY AND FUTURE PROSPECTS 9
  4. 3. SOCIAL HOUSING IN THE UK 13
  5. 3.1 SOCIAL HOUSING MARKET - DEFINITIONS 13
  6. 3.2 HOUSING MARKET STRUCTURE 13
  7. 3.2.1 All Dwellings 13
  8. 3.2.2 Social Housing 15
  9. 3.3 SOCIAL HOUSING REGULATION AND CONTROL 18
  10. 3.3.1 England 18
  11. 3.3.2 Wales 20
  12. 3.3.3 Scotland 21
  13. 3.3.4 Northern Ireland 22
  14. 3.4 FUNDING FOR THE SOCIAL HOUSING MARKET 22
  15. 3.4.1 Spending Review 2015 22
  16. 3.4.2 Public Sector Funding - England 24
  17. 3.4.3 Public Sector Funding - Wales 30
  18. 3.4.4 Public Sector Funding - Scotland 32
  19. 3.4.5 Public Sector Funding - Northern Ireland 34
  20. 3.4.6 Private Sector Funding 34
  21. 4. HOUSING ASSOCIATIONS MARKET 37
  22. 4.1 MARKET DEFINITION 37
  23. 4.2 MARKET SIZE AND TRENDS 37
  24. 4.3 MARKET MIX 39
  25. 4.4 HOUSING ASSOCIATION NEW STARTS AND COMPLETIONS 42
  26. 4.4.1 Mix of Housing Association Completions 43
  27. 4.4.2 Social Housing Development Pipeline 44
  28. 4.5 PUBLIC HOUSING RMI 49
  29. 4.5.1 Total Spending on Repairs & Maintenance 49
  30. 4.5.2 Social Housing RMI Output 52
  31. 4.6 KEY MARKET INFLUENCES 53
  32. 4.6.1 Economic, Demographic and Social Trends 53
  33. 4.6.2 Government Policy on Social Housing and Planning 54
  34. 4.6.3 Housing Affordability 57
  35. 4.6.4 Large Scale Voluntary Transfers (LSVTs) 59
  36. 4.6.5 Right to Buy 59
  37. 4.7 BUYING AND SPECIFICATION 61
  38. 4.7.1 Overview 61
  39. 4.7.2 Procurement Routes - Future Changes 64
  40. 4.7.3 Key Contractors in the Social Housing Sector 67
  41. 5. HOUSING ASSOCIATION ACTIVITIES 72
  42. 5.1 HOUSING MIX 72
  43. 5.2 SOCIAL RENTED HOUSING - GENERAL NEEDS STOCK 73
  44. 5.2.1 Size of Stock 73
  45. 5.2.2 Geographical Location of PRP Stock 73
  46. 5.2.3 Social Housing Rents 74
  47. 5.2.4 Decent Homes 76
  48. 5.3 SOCIAL HOMEBUY 78
  49. 5.4 CARE HOMES 79
  50. 5.4.1 Size of the Market 79
  51. 5.4.2 Supply and Demand 80
  52. 5.4.3 Care Home Stock 82
  53. 5.4.4 Private Care Home Market 83
  54. 5.4.5 Voluntary/Not-for-Profit Sector 84
  55. 5.4.6 The Extra Care Sector 86
  56. 5.5 STUDENT ACCOMMODATION 88
  57. 5.5.1 Market Overview & Size 88
  58. 5.5.2 Student Accommodation Development Pipeline 89
  59. 5.5.3 Leading Providers of Student Accommodation 91
  60. 6. KEY HOUSING ASSOCIATIONS 93
  61. 6.1 MARKET STRUCTURE 93
  62. 6.2 ENGLAND - KEY HOUSING ASSOCIATIONS 93
  63. 6.2.1 Overview 93
  64. 6.2.2 Housing Associations in London 95
  65. 6.2.3 Housing Association Profiles 96
  66. 6.3 SCOTLAND - KEY HOUSING ASSOCIATIONS 102
  67. 6.4 WALES - KEY HOUSING ASSOCIATIONS 104
  68. 6.5 NORTHERN IRELAND - KEY HOUSING ASSOCIATIONS 105
  1. Tables & Charts
  2. CHART 1 UK HOUSING ASSOCIATION STOCK 2009-2020 ('000S) 9
  3. TABLE 2 ENGLAND DWELLING STOCK BY TENURE ('000S) 2008-2014 14
  4. CHART 3 HOUSING STOCK BY COUNTRY AND TENURE 2014 (%) 14
  5. CHART 4 UK SOCIAL HOUSING COMPLETIONS 1993-2014 16
  6. CHART 5 SOCIAL HOUSING COMPLETIONS 2013-14 BY COUNTRY 17
  7. TABLE 6 UK SOCIAL HOUSING - % DWELLING STOCK 2004-2014 BY TENURE - MIX BETWEEN PRP AND LA 18
  8. CHART 7 HCA BUDGET BY PROGRAMME 2011 - 2015 (%) - DECENT HOMES, AFFORDABLE HOUSING, FIRSTBUY ETC 19
  9. TABLE 8 SUMMARY OF DCLG BUDGET 2015-2020 - CAPITAL/RESOURCE 24
  10. TABLE 9 ENGLAND - AFFORDABLE HOMES PROGRAMME 2011-2015 - TOTAL FUNDING AND NO. OF UNITS BY HCA OPERATING REGION (£M/DWELLINGS) 26
  11. TABLE 10 ENGLAND - AFFORDABLE HOMES PROGRAMME 2015-18: GRANTS AWARDED TO TOP 25 HOUSING ASSOCIATIONS BY NO. HOMES PLANNED & BY TENURE- APPROVALS 27
  12. TABLE 11 GLA - MAYOR'S HOUSING COVENANT PROGRAMME 2015-18: GRANTS AWARDED TO TOP 25 HOUSING ASSOCIATIONS (HOMES PLANNED) 28
  13. CHART 12 WALES - SOCIAL HOUSING GRANT FUNDING (£M) 2007-2016 31
  14. TABLE 13 SCOTLAND - AFFORDABLE HOMES SUPPLY PROGRAMME (AHSP) 2012-2016: ALLOCATIONS BY COUNCIL (£M) 33
  15. TABLE 14 UK HOUSING ASSOCIATION STOCK 2009-2020 ('000S) 38
  16. CHART 15 DISTRIBUTION OF HOUSING ASSOCIATIONS IN ENGLAND BY NUMBER OF DWELLINGS 2015 (%) 39
  17. CHART 16 DISTRIBUTION OF HOUSING ASSOCIATIONS AND STOCK HOLDINGS IN ENGLAND BY SIZE OF ASSOCIATION 2015 40
  18. CHART 17 DISTRIBUTION OF HOUSING ASSOCIATION STOCK BY REGION - ENGLAND 2015 (%) 40
  19. CHART 18 HOUSING ASSOCIATION NEW STARTS AND COMPLETIONS UK 2009 - 2020 - BY VOLUME OF DWELLINGS 42
  20. TABLE 19 HOUSING ASSOCIATION COMPLETIONS BY SIZE OF DWELLING 2010-11 TO 2014-15: ENGLAND (% OF DWELLINGS) 44
  21. TABLE 20 AHP AND NAHP - TOTAL STARTS AND COMPLETIONS BY YEAR: 2011-2015 45
  22. TABLE 21 AFFORDABLE HOMES DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE: TOP 30 HOUSING ASSOCIATIONS BY NO. AFFORDABLE UNITS DEVELOPED/APPROVED FOR THE AHP 2011-2015 AND NO. HOMES APPROVED/PLANNED FOR 2015-2020 48
  23. TABLE 22 EXPENDITURE ON HOUSING ASSOCIATION PROPERTIES - MAJOR REPAIRS, PLANNED MAINTENANCE, SERVICE COSTS: 2010-14 (£M) 49
  24. TABLE 23 TOP 30 HOUSING ASSOCIATIONS BY TOTAL SPEND ON REPAIRS & MAINTENANCE - 2013 AND 2014 (£M) 50
  25. CHART 24 ESTIMATED TOTAL EXPENDITURE ON HOUSING ASSOCIATION RMI: 2011 -2020 52
  26. CHART 25 PUBLIC SECTOR HOUSING RMI OUTPUT 2009/10 - 2019/20 (£M) 53
  27. TABLE 26 HOUSEHOLD SIZE ESTIMATES UK 2012 - 2037 ('000S) 54
  28. TABLE 27 AFFORDABILITY FACTORS UK - SIMPLE AVERAGE PRICE, MORTGAGE ADVANCE AND INCOME (£) 2004-2014 58
  29. TABLE 28 'RIGHT TO BUY' AND 'RIGHT TO ACQUIRE' SALES, ENGLAND 60
  30. TABLE 29 LEADING CONTRACTORS IN THE SOCIAL HOUSING/MAINTENANCE SECTOR 2014-15 (VALUE OF CONTRACTS & KEY CLIENTS) 69
  31. CHART 30 HA STOCK IN ENGLAND BY TYPE 2015 (%) 72
  32. TABLE 31 ENGLAND - GENERAL NEEDS SOCIAL HOUSING STOCK BY SIZE OF DWELLING 2015 (%) 73
  33. TABLE 32 ENGLAND - REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF GENERAL NEEDS SOCIAL HOUSING STOCK 2015 - LARGE PRPS (%)* 73
  34. TABLE 33 ENGLAND - GENERAL NEEDS HOUSING RENTS PER REGION 2015 (£/WK) 74
  35. TABLE 34 ENGLAND - GENERAL NEEDS HOUSING RENTS PER REGION 2015 (£/WK) - AFFORDABLE RENTS MODEL VS. GENERAL RENTS 75
  36. TABLE 35 HOUSING ASSOCIATION PROPERTIES FAILING TO MEET THE DECENT HOMES STANDARD 2007-2014 77
  37. TABLE 36 NUMBER OF HOMES MADE DECENT WITHIN PRP SECTOR AND AVERAGE COST PER UNIT (£) 2011 - 2015 77
  38. TABLE 37 ENGLAND - SOCIAL HOUSING SALES - ANNUAL SOCIAL HOMEBUY SALES 2006-2015 78
  39. TABLE 38 LONG-TERM CARE MARKET BY OWNERSHIP TYPE - NUMBER OF CARE HOMES/BED-SPACES 2014-15* 80
  40. CHART 39 FUTURE DEMAND FOR CARE HOMES 2015 - 2020 82
  41. CHART 40 PERCENTAGE OF INDEPENDENT CARE HOME BUILDINGS BY AGE 82
  42. TABLE 41 LEADING 20 PRIVATE PROVIDERS OF LONG-TERM CARE* NUMBER OF HOMES AND BED SPACES - 2015 84
  43. TABLE 42 LEADING 20 VOLUNTARY SECTOR PROVIDERS OF LONG-TERM CARE 2015* 85
  44. TABLE 43 TOP 15 HOUSING ASSOCIATION PROVIDERS OF EXTRACARE HOUSING 87
  45. CHART 44 TYPES OF STUDENT ACCOMMODATION IN THE UK - APPROXIMATE SHARE BY TYPE 2014-15 89
  46. CHART 45 FORWARD PIPELINE OF STUDENT BED-SPACES BY OPERATOR 2015/16-2018/19 90
  47. CHART 46 ESTIMATED NUMBER OF NEW STUDENT BED SPACES BUILT PER YEAR - 2009-2020 91
  48. TABLE 47 MARKET SHARES OF LEADING COMMERCIAL OPERATORS OF STUDENT ACCOMMODATION IN THE UK 2014-15 92
  49. TABLE 48 TOP 30 HA GROUPS IN ENGLAND BY TOTAL STOCK OWNED (2015) UNITS OWNED/MANAGED AND MARKET SHARE (%) 94
  50. TABLE 49 G15 DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE 2015-2020 BY HOUSING ASSOCIATION MEMBER (NO. AND VALUE OF UNITS) (£M) 96
  51. CHART 50 SANCTUARY HOUSING GROUP HOUSING MIX 2015 97
  52. CHART 51 LONDON & QUADRANT HOUSING GROUP HOUSING MIX 2015 98
  53. CHART 52 CIRCLE HOUSING GROUP HOUSING MIX 2015 99
  54. CHART 53 GUINNESS PARTNERSHIP HOUSING MIX 2015 100
  55. CHART 54 AFFINITY SUTTON HOUSING MIX 2015 101
  56. TABLE 55 TOP 30 HA GROUPS IN SCOTLAND BY TOTAL STOCK OWNED (2015) UNITS MANAGED / MARKET SHARE 103
  57. TABLE 56 MAJOR HOUSING ASSOCIATIONS IN WALES 2015: UNITS MANAGED/OWNED - MARKET SHARES 104
  58. TABLE 57 MAJOR HOUSING ASSOCIATIONS IN NORTHERN IRELAND 2014-15 UNITS MANAGED / MARKET SHARES 106

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