Offsite Housing Market Report UK 2019-2023
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The 1st edition of the ‘Offsite Housing Market Report – UK 2019-2023′ has been published by AMA Research. Incorporating original input and primary research, this brand new report represents an up-to-date and informed review of this potentially fast growing and complex market.
AMA have published a range of reports covering the construction sector including House building, DIY Multiples, Builders and Plumbers’ Merchants, Electrical Wholesalers, Non-Domestic Construction Sectors, in addition to building and plumbing materials.
In this first edition of the UK Offsite Housing report AMA presents a detailed review of the development of the market. along with key suppliers and influences.
This report also analyses the level of house building and the influences on the offsite housing market including types of housing development, off-site manufacturing capabilities, shortage of construction skills and BIM.
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The 1st edition of the “Offsite Housing Market Report – UK 2019-2023” has been published by AMA Research. Incorporating original input and primary research, this brand new report represents an up-to-date and informed review of this potentially fast growing and complex market.
Key areas covered in the report
MARKET OVERVIEW
Overview of size by volume and value and trends in the house building market and market shares by construction method
Estimates of total market for offsite housing systems by value 2017-2018 and forecasts to 2023
Assessment of recent trends and market prospects,the key underlying drivers and expected barriers to growth; Key factors covered include: quality assurance & building warranties; Homes England funding; increasing offsite capacity; growth in Build to Rent and Affordable Housing; skills shortages; developers business models; new product to market; sustainability issues
SECTOR REVIEWS FOR KEY OFFSITE BUILDING METHODS
Timber frame panelised & volumetric; light steel frame panelised & volumetric; cross-laminated timber panelised & volumetric; structural insulated panel systems; precast offsite components; bathroom & bedroom ‘pods’.
By sector – market size estimates by value and identification of key drivers and trends
By sector – identification of manufacturers and suppliers, with a focus on market leaders and recent market entrants. Where possible, market share estimates; offsite housing manufacturers profiles
HOUSING DEVELOPERS USING OFFSITE SYSTEMS
House builders – identification of top 12 using offsite systems on a regular basis, total number of homes sold in 2018, systems used. Profiles for Barratt, Persimmon, Taylor Wimpey, Redrow, Crest Nicolson, Countryside, Keepmoat, Willmott Dixon, Lovell Homes, Stewart Milne, Weston Homes
Housing associations & local authorities – for largest 20+, number of starts 2017/2018 and 2018/2019; % of which offsite was used; 5-year plans and potential use of offsite. Profiles for London & Quadrant, Hyde, Home, Sanctuary, Orbit, Clarion, A2 Dominion, Wheatley, Network, Swan, Midland Heart.
Private developers – profiles of top 20+ using offsite, Includes; Pocket Living, Essential Living Aurora Living, Urban Splash, Capital & Centric, CITU, Regal Homes, Tide Construction.
Until 2017, the use of off-site modular products in housing has largely been limited to softwood open & closed panel timber frame and, to a much lesser extent, other wood-based systems i.e. structural insulated panels (SIPS) and cross laminated timber (CLT) panels.
Our review covers the following off-site house building systems:
– Timber frame;
– Structural Insulated Panel Systems;
– Light Gauge Steel Frame Systems;
– Cross Laminated Timber and Glue Laminated Timber;
– Pre-cast Concrete off-site systems;
– Pods – bathroom, bedroom & kitchen.
This report also analyses the level of house building and the influences on the off-site housing market including types of housing development, off-site manufacturing capabilities, shortage of construction skills and BIM.
CONTENTS
1. INTRODUCTION 7
1.1 INTRODUCTION 7
1.2 SOURCES OF INFORMATION 7
2. SUMMARY 9
3. ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT 12
3.1 OVERVIEW AND OUTLOOK 12
3.2 KEY DATA 13
3.2.1 GDP 13
3.2.2 Inflation & Interest Rates 13
3.2.3 Employment & Wages 14
3.2.4 Household Consumption 15
3.2.5 Sterling 16
4. OVERALL MARKET SIZE AND INFLUENCES 18
4.1 OVERVIEW OF HOUSE BUILDING MARKET 18
4.1.1 Market Size and Recent Trends 18
4.1.2 Market Mix by Superstructure Material 19
4.2 OFFSITE HOUSE BUILDING MARKET 20
4.2.1 Recent Market Size and Trends 20
4.2.2 Market Prospects 22
4.3 MAIN INFLUENCES ON MARKET DEVELOPMENT 25
4.3.1 Availability of Quality Assurance for Off-Site Housing 25
4.3.2 Homes England Funding for Off-Site Housing 26
4.3.3 Affordable Housing Development 27
4.3.4 Growth in Off-Site Manufacturing Capacity 28
4.3.5 New Products to Market 30
4.3.6 Sustainability 31
4.3.7 Growth in Adoption of Building Information Modelling (BIM) 32
4.3.8 Growth in Build to Rent Development 33
4.3.9 Growth in Self/Custom Build 35
4.3.10 Shortages in Construction Skills 36
4.3.11 Build for Sale Housing Developers Business Models 37
5. TIMBER FRAME SYSTEMS 39
5.1 DEFINITION 39
5.2 MARKET SIZE AND TRENDS 39
5.3 SUPPLY 41
6. STRUCTURAL INSULATED PANEL SYSTEMS (SIPS) 45
6.1 DEFINITION 45
6.2 MARKET SIZE AND TRENDS 45
6.3 SUPPLY 46
7. LIGHT GAUGE STEEL FRAME SYSTEMS (LGSF) 48
7.1 DEFINITION 48
7.2 MARKET SIZE AND TRENDS 48
7.2.1 Panellised Systems 48
7.2.2 Volumetric Modules 49
7.3 SUPPLY CHAIN 52
7.3.1 Light Gauge Steel Frame (LGSF) Panellised Systems 52
7.3.2 Light Gauge Steel Frame (LGFS) Volumetric Building Systems 54
8. CROSS LAMINATED TIMBER (CLT) AND GLUE LAMINATED TIMBER (GLULAM) 59
8.1 DEFINITION 59
8.2 MARKET SIZE AND TRENDS 59
8.3 SUPPLY 60
8.3.1 CLT Manufacturers 60
8.3.2 UK Suppliers and Contractors 62
9. BATHROOM, BEDROOM & KITCHEN PODS 65
9.1 DEFINITION 65
9.2 MARKET SIZE AND TRENDS 65
9.3 SUPPLY 67
9.3.1 UK Manufacturers 67
9.3.2 Imports 68
10. PRECAST CONCRETE OFFSITE SYSTEMS 70
10.1 DEFINITION 70
10.2 SECTOR SIZE AND TRENDS 70
10.3 SUPPLY 70
11. DEVELOPERS USING OFF-SITE HOUSING SYSTEMS 72
11.1 DEFINITIONS AND MARKET STRUCTURE 72
11.2 PRIVATE HOUSING DEVELOPERS USING OFF-SITE BUILDING SYSTEMS 72
11.3 SOCIAL HOUSING PROVIDERS 76
11.4 PRIVATE SECTOR DEVELOPERS OTHER THAN TRADITIONAL HOUSE BUILDERS 81
TABLES & CHARTS
TABLE 1: UK MARKET FOR OFF-SITE HOUSING SYSTEMS (£M MSP) 2017 AND 2018, FORECASTS 2019-2023 9
CHART 2: GDP DATA – 2015-2019 – KEY CONSTITUENT ELEMENTS 13
CHART 3: CPI INFLATION AND BANK OF ENGLAND BASE RATE, 2008-2023 14
CHART 4: AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS DATA – GB – TOTAL PAY – 2014-2019 (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 15
CHART 5: PDI & SAVINGS RATIO AT CURRENT PRICES 2008-2023 16
CHART 6: EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONS 2015-2021 – STERLING TO THE DOLLAR, AND THE EURO, SPOT RATES 17
CHART 7: UK HOUSING CONSTRUCTION MARKET BY CONTRACTORS OUTPUT AND VOLUMES (NEW BUILD COMPLETIONS & CONVERSIONS – ‘000S) 2011/12 – 2017/2018 AND FORECASTS TO 2022/2023 18
CHART 8: UK HOUSING NEWBUILD LEGAL COMPLETIONS 2012/13- 2018/19 AND FORECASTS TO 2021/22 19
CHART 9: UK MARKET FOR OFF-SITE HOUSING BY SUPERSTRUCTURE MATERIAL BY % OF COMPLETIONS 2017/18 20
TABLE 10: UK MARKET FOR OFF-SITE HOUSING SYSTEMS (£M MSP) 2017 AND 2018, FORECASTS 2019-2023 21
TABLE 11: SUMMARY OF MARKET DRIVERS AND BARRIERS TO GROWTH FOR OFF-SITE HOUSING 23
TABLE 12: LARGEST MANUFACTURERS OF OFF-SITE SYSTEMS ACTIVE IN NEW BUILD HOUSING SECTOR BY 2017 OR 2018 TURNOVER 29
TABLE 13: RECENT OFF-SITE HOUSING START UPS AND EXISTING MANUFACTURERS ADDING MODULAR HOUSING TO THEIR RANGE 30
CHART 14: GROWTH OF THE PRS SECTOR (MILLION DWELLINGS) 2015-16 TO 2029-30 33
CHART 15: BUILD TO RENT MARKET BY CONTRACTORS OUTPUT (£BN AT CURRENT PRICES) AND NUMBER OF DWELLINGS 2013-2017 AND FORECASTS TO 2022 35
CHART 16: SELF-BUILD MARKET – COMPLETIONS BY VOLUME (NO. DWELLINGS) 2011-2017 36
CHART 17: UK NEW BUILD COMPLETIONS ESTIMATED MIX BY TENURE BY % OF COMPLETIONS 2018 38
CHART 18: UK TIMBER FRAME HOUSE BUILDING – ESTIMATED COMPLETIONS BY NUMBER OF DWELLINGS (‘000) 2011 – 2018 40
CHART 19: UK TIMBER FRAME HOUSING ESTIMATED COMPLETIONS BY SECTOR (SOCIAL, PRIVATE, SELF-BUILD) % BY VOLUME 2018 41
TABLE 20: OVERALL TIMBER FRAME MARKET – SHARES FOR MAJOR MANUFACTURERS AND MAIN SECTORS SUPPLIED 42
CHART 21: UK MARKET FOR VOLUMETRIC BUILDING SYSTEMS AND TEMPORARY ACCOMMODATION BY APPLICATION BY VALUE (MSP) 51
TABLE 22: MAJOR MANUFACTURERS OF LGSF PANELLISED OFF-SITE BUILDING SYSTEMS 53
TABLE 23: LGSF VOLUMETRIC MODULAR BUILDING MANUFACTURERS OFFERING HOUSING SYSTEMS 56
TABLE 24: LEADING EUROPEAN MANUFACTURERS OF CROSS LAMINATED PANEL OFF-SITE BUILDING SYSTEMS – ANNUAL PRODUCTION CAPACITIES (M2) 2016 TO 2020 62
TABLE 25: UK SUPPLIERS OF CROSS LAMINATED TIMBER OFF-SITE BUILDING SYSTEMS 63
CHART 26: UK BATHROOM, BEDROOM AND KITCHEN PODS MARKET BY VALUE (£ MSP) & VOLUME (THOUSAND UNITS) 2013-2022 67
CHART 27: BATHROOM, BEDROOM AND KITCHEN PODS – % MIX BY VOLUME BY END USER SECTOR 68
TABLE 28: LEADING HOUSE BUILDERS USING OFF-SITE HOUSING SYSTEMS 74
TABLE 29: LARGER HOUSING ASSOCIATIONS ACTIVE IN THE USE OF OFF-SITE HOUSING SYSTEMS BETWEEN MARCH 2017 AND MARCH 2019 79
TABLE 30: HOUSING ASSOCIATIONS WITH LARGEST 5-YEAR NEW BUILD PIPELINES 1 APRIL 2019 TO 31 MARCH 2024. 80
TABLE 31: PRIVATE SECTOR HOUSING DEVELOPERS USING OFF-SITE SYSTEMS 83
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