Private Housebuilding Market Report – UK 2020-2024 – Covid-19 Updated

This is the first edition of the Private Housebuliding Market UK 2020-2024 which pays specific attention to GB’s regional markets; starts & completions, output values, contract awards 2020 and top 20 housing developers.

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The previous edition of the Housebuilding Market Report has been superseded by the 1st edition of a new report, the Private Housebuilding Market Report UK 2020-2024. This is because the new housing market comprises sub-sectors that have different market drivers and largely different key stakeholders.

There are existing AMA Research reports on Social Housing newbuild, the Private Rental Sector and Self-Build so it is only right the largest sub-sector, the private or open market newbuild merited specific focus.

Furthermore, rather than being a homogenous UK market, the private newbuild housing sector should probably be considered as a collection of regional markets, with some areas -particularly London – having unique characteristics and . This report pays specific attention to GB’s regional markets; starts & completions, output values, contract awards 2020 and top 20 housing developers.

Key issues analysed in the report:

  •  Size of the GB private residential construction market: contractor’ output (£bn), starts & completions, forecasts 2020 – 2024
  • Regional reviews: contractor’ output (£bn), starts & completions, new orders, leading developers
  • Profiles of GBs top 20 housing developers – overall market performance, company profiles, annual completions by tenure.

Areas of interest:

  • Quantitative assessment of impact of Covid-19 and the lockdown on housebuilding activities.
  • Reviews of private residential construction by region; English regions, Scotland and Wales:-starts & completions, contractors output 2015-2019. Identification of top 20+ developers in each region by turnover and where possible by completions.
  • Review of the impact of Help to Buy on the housebuilding market, which has been credited with a recent increase in completions and is now extended to 2023.
  • Assessment of use of offsite methods in housebuilding
  • Profiles of top 30+ private housing developers including 2019/20 turnovers, completions by tenure, average sales prices, completions by region where available

Some of the companies included:

BoKlok Housing, CITU Works, Cloud Off-Site Construction, Countryside Modular, Elite Systems – Housing system, Enevate Building Systems, Explore Manufacturing AMF, Go Modular Technologies, Housing Homes, Ideal Modular Homes, Ilke Homes, Legal & General Modular, MassBespoke, McAvoy Group Living, Marley Modular, nHouse /Lesko Modular, Nowhaus, NU Living, Osco Homes, Parabuild Solutions, Simply Modular Solutions, Project Etopia, Trillium Homes Construction, Persimmon, Taylor Wimpey, Countryside Properties, Redrow, London Square, Regal Homes, Howarth Homes, Bellway, Mace, Berkley Group and more.


Key areas covered in the report:

GB Private Residential Construction

  • Private housing starts & completions; contractors output 2015-2019.
  • Forecasts 2020-2024
  • Evaluation of impact of covid-19 and the March-June lockdown on building activities, with charts showing number and values of delayed projects
  • Review of market drivers: macro-economic factors; impact of Help to Buy; skills shortages; covid-19 stamp duty holiday; house price trends by region etc
  • New housing by types of dwelling 2019; GB mix; England-trends in house construction and in flats construction 2014-2019
  • Uptake in offsite housing systems and suppliers

Private Residential Construction by Region

  • Comparative overview of regions by number of completions and by contractors output 2017 and 2019
  • Regions included: -Greater London, South East, East of England, South West, West Midlands, East Midlands, North West, Yorkshire & Humberside, North East, Scotland, Wales.
  • Each region covered individually– starts and completions 2015-2019 and short-term market prospects by number and value of contract awards at July 2020; tables of top 20 developers in each region -counties covered, annual turnovers; brief reviews of the leading 5-10, completions in each region where possible

Leading Developer Profiles

  • Overview of housing developers’ sector – shares by types of developer e.g. larger private housebuilders, SME housebuilders, housing associations and self-builders
  • Chart for top 30+ developers – latest year turnovers, total completions, private completions
  • Review of 36 largest housing developers (500+ completions a year) – number of completions (private & affordable) and average sales prices; 2017 – 2019
  • Overview of 20 largest housing associations developing homes for open market sale- number of completions

Tables and Charts

  • There are 50 tables and charts included in this report.

Despite wider macro-economic and political uncertainty, largely due to issues concerning the UK’s departure from the EU at the end of 2020, overall the residential newbuild market remained stable during 2019.

However, the impact of Covid-19 and the Spring lockdown is forecast to lead to at least a 30% decline in contractor’s output in 2020 and over 40,000+ fewer private homes being built. At the peak of the first wave of Covid-19 in the UK, around 2,600 private residential building projects with an aggregate value of £40bn were shut down.

Currently, forecasting for the medium term is particularly challenging. Not only is it unknown how long the Covid-19 pandemic will continue but, in 2021, uncertainties will be compounded by the impact of the UK finally leaving the EU. Assumptions for 2021 have been based on anticipating the pandemic persisting well into the year.

Therefore for 2021, we expect ongoing difficulties in the private housebuilding sector to persist. The level of mortgage applications and approvals may well be lower than in 2019 due to lower levels of confidence in the market among potential homebuyers and lenders. Lenders may also impose tighter restrictions on borrowing and unemployment levels will probably rise substantially, once furlough schemes end and more businesses go into liquidation. We would therefore expect demand for new homes to be impacted although offsetting this will be the continuance of Help to Buy and other financial assistance schemes.

Contents Listing

1. INTRODUCTION 9
1.1 SCOPE OF THIS REPORT 9
1.2 SOURCES OF INFORMATION 9
2. SUMMARY 11
2.1 MARKET SIZE AND TRENDS 11
3. PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION MARKET – UK REVIEW 13
3.1 MARKET SIZE AND RECENT TRENDS 13
3.3 GENERAL MARKET INFLUENCES (OTHER THAN THE IMPACT OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC) 16
3.3.1 Economic, social and demographic factors 16
3.3.2 Affordability 17
3.3.3 Stamp Duty Relief 20
3.3.4 Trends in Newbuild Housing Prices 21
3.3.5 Land availability and planning Issues 22
3.3.6 Shortages of On-site Trades and Professionals 23
3.4. PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION BY TYPE OF DWELLING 25
3.5 UPTAKE IN OFFSITE CONSTRUCTION METHODS 27
4. RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION BY REGION 31
4.1 OVERVIEW AND DEFINITIONS 31
4.2 GREATER LONDON 32
4.2.1 Market summary 32
4.2.2 Leading developers 33
4.3 SOUTH EAST AND EAST OF ENGLAND 35
4.3.1 Market summary 36
4.3.2 Leading developers 39
4.4 THE MIDLANDS 40
4.4.1 Market summary 40
4.4.2 Leading developers 43
4.5 NORTHERN ENGLAND 44
4.5.1 Market summary 44
4.5.2 Leading developers 47
4.6 SOUTH WEST & HAMPSHIRE AND WALES 48
4.6.1 Market summary 48
4.6.2 Leading developers 51
4.7 SCOTLAND 53
4.7.1 Market summary 53
4.7.2 Leading developers 54
5. DEVELOPERS 56
5.1 DEFINITIONS AND MARKET STRUCTURE 56
5.2 LARGER PRIVATE HOUSEBUILDING DEVELOPERS 57
5.2.1 Overview 57
5.2.2 Review of the 15 leading housebuilding companies in the private sector 59
5.3 SOCIAL/AFFORDABLE HOUSING PROVIDERS (PRP) 77
APPENDICES 79
APPENDIX A: ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT 79
A.1 OVERVIEW AND OUTLOOK 79
A.2 GDP 79
A.3 INFLATION & INTEREST RATES 80
A.4 EMPLOYMENT & WAGES 81
A.5 HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION 82
A.6 STERLING 83

 

Tables & Charts

CHART 1: GB PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION – COMPLETIONS AND CONTRACTORS’ OUTPUT (£BN NON-SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 2015 TO 2019 AND FORECASTS TO 2022 11
CHART 2: GB PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION – COMPLETIONS AND CONTRACTORS’ OUTPUT (£BN NON-SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 2015 TO 2019 AND FORECASTS TO 2022 13
CHART 3: RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION – TRENDS IN CONTRACT AWARDS BY VALUES AND BY NUMBERS OF PROJECTS JAN 2019 – JULY 2020 14
CHART 4: RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION – TRENDS IN CONTRACT AWARDS BY VALUES AND BY NUMBERS OF PROJECTS JAN 2019 – JULY 2020 15
TABLE 5: HOUSEHOLD SIZE ESTIMATES ENGLAND (‘000S) 2014 – 2039 16
CHART 6: AVERAGE MORTGAGE INTEREST RATES MARCH 2015 – MARCH 2020 17
CHART 7: HELP TO BUY LEGAL COMPLETIONS AND AS % OF TOTAL COMPLETIONS IN ENGLAND 2015-2019 18
CHART 8: AVERAGE HOUSE PRICES AND STAMP DUTY PAYABLE AT JUNE 2020 21
CHART 9: NEWBUILD AVERAGE PRICE TRENDS BY REGION MARCH 2015 -MARCH 2020 22
CHART 10: FEDERATION OF MASTER BUILDERS STATE OF TRADE SURVEY Q1 2020 % OF RESPONDENTS REPORTING SKILLED TRADES IN SHORT SUPPLY 24
CHART 11: UK ALL NEW HOUSING COMPLETIONS – MIX BY TYPE OF DWELLING 2019 25
CHART 12: ENGLAND NEW PRIVATE HOUSES – TOTAL NUMBER OF COMPLETIONS BY DWELLING SIZES (NUMBERS OF BEDROOMS) 26
CHART 13: UK ENGLAND NEW PRIVATE FLATS – TOTAL NUMBER OF COMPLETIONS BY DWELLING SIZES (NUMBERS OF BEDROOMS) 26
CHART 14: ENGLAND – PRIVATE APARTMENT COMPLETIONS AS % OF TOTAL PRIVATE COMPLETIONS BY REGION 2014/15 -2018/19 27
TABLE 15: RECENT ENTRANTS TO THE OFFSITE HOUSING MARKET 29
CHART 16: PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION COMPLETIONS BY REGION 2018 AND 2019 31
CHART 17: GREATER LONDON PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION, STARTS, COMPLETIONS & CONTRACTORS OUTPUT (£M) 2015-2019 32
CHART 18: LONDON – NUMBER OF CONTRACTS AWARDED AND AGGREGATE CAPITAL VALUES, JANUARY TO JULY 2020 33
TABLE 19: LEADING PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPERS IN GREATER LONDON 34
CHART 20: SOUTH EAST ENGLAND – PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION, STARTS, COMPLETIONS & CONTRACTORS OUTPUT (£M) 2015-2019 36
CHART 21: EAST OF ENGLAND – PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION, STARTS, COMPLETIONS & CONTRACTORS OUTPUT (£M) 2015-2019 37
CHART 22: SOUTH WEST – NUMBER OF CONTRACTS AWARDED AND AGGREGATE CAPITAL VALUES, JANUARY TO JULY 2020 37
CHART 23: EAST OF ENGLAND – NUMBER OF CONTRACTS AWARDED AND AGGREGATE CAPITAL VALUES, JANUARY TO JULY 2020 38
TABLE 24: LEADING PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPERS ACROSS THE SOUTH EAST AND EAST OF ENGLAND 39
CHART 25: EAST MIDLANDS – PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION, STARTS, COMPLETIONS & CONTRACTORS’ OUTPUT (£M) 2015-2019 41
CHART 26: WEST MIDLANDS – PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION STARTS, COMPLETIONS AND CONTRACTORS’ OUTPUT (£M) 2015 TO 2019 41
CHART 27: EAST MIDLANDS – NUMBER OF CONTRACTS AWARDED AND AGGREGATE CAPITAL VALUES, JANUARY TO JULY 2020 42
CHART 28: WEST MIDLANDS – NUMBER OF CONTRACTS AWARDED AND AGGREGATE CAPITAL VALUES, JANUARY TO JULY 2020 42
TABLE 29: LEADING PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPERS ACROSS THE MIDLANDS 43
CHART 30: NORTH WEST – PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION, STARTS, COMPLETIONS & CONTRACTORS’ OUTPUT (£M) 2015-2019 45
CHART 31: YORKSHIRE, HUMBERSIDE & THE NORTH EAST – PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION, STARTS, COMPLETIONS & CONTRACTORS’ OUTPUT (£M) 2015-2019 45
CHART 32: NORTH WEST – NUMBER OF CONTRACTS AWARDED AND AGGREGATE CAPITAL VALUES, JANUARY TO JULY 2020 46
CHART 33: YORKSHIRE AND THE NORTH EAST – NUMBER OF CONTRACTS AWARDED AND AGGREGATE CAPITAL VALUES, JANUARY TO JULY 2020 46
TABLE 34: LEADING PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPERS ACROSS THE NORTH OF ENGLAND 47
CHART 35: SOUTH WEST – PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION, STARTS, COMPLETIONS & CONTRACTORS’ OUTPUT (£M) 2015-2019 49
CHART 36: WALES – PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION, STARTS, COMPLETIONS & CONTRACTORS’ OUTPUT (£M) 2015-2019 49
CHART 37: SOUTH WEST – NUMBER OF CONTRACTS AWARDED AND AGGREGATE CAPITAL VALUES, JANUARY TO JULY 2020 50
CHART 38: WALES – NUMBER OF CONTRACTS AWARDED AND AGGREGATE CAPITAL VALUES, JANUARY TO JULY 2020 50
TABLE 39: LEADING HOUSEBUILDERS IN SOUTH WEST, HAMPSHIRE AND WALES 51
CHART 40: SCOTLAND – PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION, STARTS, COMPLETIONS & CONTRACTORS’ OUTPUT (£M) 2015-2019 53
CHART 41: SCOTLAND – NUMBER OF CONTRACTS AWARDED AND AGGREGATE CAPITAL VALUES, JANUARY TO JULY 2020 53
TABLE 42: LEADING HOUSEBUILDERS IN SCOTLAND 54
CHART 43: NEWBUILD HOUSING COMPLETIONS – DEVELOPERS SHARES BY SIZE RANGE 2019 57
TABLE 44: LEADING PRIVATE SECTOR HOUSEBUILDERS 58
TABLE 45: 15 LEADING PRPS DEVELOPING HOUSING FOR OPEN MARKET SALE (100+ UNITS IN 2019/2020) 78
CHART A1: GVA CHAINED VOLUME MEASURES KEY CONSTITUENT ELEMENTS – 2015-2020 80
CHART A2: CPI INFLATION AND BANK OF ENGLAND BASE RATE – 2008 TO 2023 81
CHART A3: AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS DATA (GB) TOTAL PAY – 2014-2019 (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 82
CHART A4: DISPOSABLE INCOME PER CAPITA AND THE SAVINGS RATIO AT CURRENT PRICES – 2008-2023 83
CHART A5: EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONS – STERLING TO DOLLAR AND THE EURO SPOT RATES – 2015-2019 84

 


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