Social Housing Newbuild Market Report – UK 2020-2024 including Covid-19 Insight

The 13th edition of the ‘Social Housing Newbuild – UK 2020-2024’ has been published by AMA Research. This report has been revamped to focus in greater detail on new affordable housing  and in particular the re-emergence of local authorities as housing developers.

The ‘Social Housing Construction and Maintenance Market Report – UK 2020-2024’ costs £945+VAT (if applicable) for a PDF version.

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The 13th edition of the ‘Social Housing Newbuild – UK 2020-2024’ has been published by AMA Research. This report has been revamped to focus in greater detail on new affordable housing  and in particular the re-emergence of local authorities as housing developers.

Key content covered in the report

  • Structure and size of social housing provision in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland by stock and tenure.
  • Analysis of UK private registered providers by stock and tenure – activities and development pipelines. Arrival of for-profit PRPs.
  • Role of local authorities in social housing development
  • Social / affordable housing newbuild completions by volume; by region, by tenure and by funding mechanisms
  • Impact of covid-19 on output
  • Review of contracting – private housebuilders (section 106), PRPs, local housing companies••

Areas of particular interest

  • Analysis of the re-emergence of local authorities as housing developers following the removal of the Housing Revenue Account debt cap in late 2018. Growth in number of local housing companies
  • Review of the emergence of the for-profit PRP sector in social housing provision
  • Analysis of completions by tenure – e.g. social rent, affordable rent, shared-ownership within each of the 4 home nations – and by funding mechanism e.g. section 106, Homes England grants etc
  • Review of key developers – private housebuilders, large-scale PRP groups
  • 26 detailed charts illustrating annual trends in affordable homes completions by region, by tenure, by funding

Some Companies Included:

Berkeley Modular, BoKlok Housing, CITU Works, Cloud Off-Site Construction, Countryside Modular, F1 Modular, Elite Systems – Housing system, Enevate Building Systems, Explore Manufacturing AMF, Go Modular Technologies, Housing Homes, Ideal Modular Homes, Ilke Homes, Legal & General Modular, MassBespoke, McAvoy Group Living, Marley Modular, nHouse /Lesko Modular, Nowhaus, NU Living, Osco Homes, Parabuild Solutions, Simply Modular Solutions, Project Etopia, Trillium Homes Construction, Top Hat, Totally Modular Homes, Trivselhus UK, Tufeco Build Systems, Urban Splash Modular, WELink Live Verde, Keepmoat Homes, Barratt, Taylor Wimpey, Westbury P’ships, Bellway Homes, Kier Living, Countryside Props, Wates Residential, Redrow Homes, Vistry Partnerships, Lovell, Crest Nicholson, Miller Homes, Robertson Partnership Homes, Springfield Props., Rydon Homes, Avant Homes

Key areas covered in the report

SOCIAL HOUSING PROVISION

  • Analysis of annual trends in social housing dwelling stock 2010 -2019 by tenure with each of the 4 UK countries.
  • Review of key groups providing social / affordable housing: non-profit private registered providers (PRPs), local authorities (and ALMOs) and the emerging for-profit PRP sector.
  • Analysis of PRP dwelling stock in England by tenure

SOCIAL /AFFORDABLE HOUSING NEWBUILD

  • Market overview  of trends– UK affordable housing completions  and output by value 2015/16 -2019/20 and forecasts to 2022/23
  • Trends in completions 2015/16 -2019/20 and forecasts to 2022/23 for PRPs vs local authorities.
  • Review of key market drivers: – socio-economic & demographic factors, impact of reductions in governmenr funding, impact of Rent To Buy, resumption of local authority housing delivery, Homes England Strategic Plan 2018/19 -2022/23, Affordable Housing Programme, land availability, shortage of skilled trades, grwoth in use of offsite construction, impact of covid-19 on developments.

SOCIAL HOUSING NEWBUILD MARKET MIXES

  • Trends in newbuild completions by region 2015/16 – 2018/19
  • Trends in newbuild completions for UK and by country 2015/16 – 2018/19: social rent, affordable rent, shared ownership
  • Trends in newbuild completions in England by funding mechanism: section 106, grants, housing guarantees
  • Trends in new house completions in England by size of dwelling by numbers of bedrooms 2014/15 – 2018/19
  • Trends in new flats completions in England by size of dwelling by numbers of bedrooms 2014/15 – 2018/19

NEWBUILD CONTRACTING IN THE SOCIAL HOUSING SECTOR

  • Private housing developers – identifies top 20 active in the social /affordable housing market according to number and value of completions. Review of key contractors e,g, Keepmoat, Barratt, Taylor Wimpey, Persimmon, Bellway.
  • Not-for profit PRPs delivering new homes – identifies top 20 active in the social /affordable housing market according to number and value of completions by tenure. Review of key companies e.g. London & Quadrant, Places for People, Clarion, Home, Platform, Sovereign.
  • Local authorities – review of those delivering new homes through housing revenue accounts and local housing companies. Analysis of 5-year pipeline to 2024/25

The shortage of good quality social/affordable housing has been widely covered in the mainstream and trade media, showing that over a million people are on council housing waiting lists.  A key reason for this has been the sale of over two and a half million homes former council houses to tenants under the Right To Buy scheme, introduced in 1980 by the then Conservative government.

Over the 40 years that the scheme has been running in England, these homes have not been replaced by new public sector housing stock. Instead the focus of governments has been on home ownership, which has received considerable support through initiatives such as Help To Buy.

With regards to social housing development there has been a trend among governments for reducing the level of grants, with loans and revenue funding to be used by social housing landlords. However, getting loans depends on whether they can cover interest payments from forecast rental income and has been a key factor hindering sufficient growth in social housing newbuild.

In 2010, the Coalition government introduced affordable rent – more than social rent but less than private rent-  to enable social housing landlords to borrow from private lenders. Since then, there has been a steady increase in new affordable rent housing in England, which has driven overall growth in total output.

CONTENTS

 

RESEARCH SERVICES OFFERED BY AMA RESEARCH 3
1. INTRODUCTION 8
1.1 INTRODUCTION 8
1.2 SOURCES OF INFORMATION 9
1.3 GLOSSARY OF TERMS 10
2. SUMMARY 11
3. SOCIAL HOUSING PROVISION IN THE UK 14
3.1 DEFINITION 14
3.2 OVERARCHING ORGANISATIONS 14
3.2.1 England 14
3.2.2 Wales 14
3.2.3 Scotland 14
3.2.4 Northern Ireland 15
3.3 UK OVERVIEW OF SOCIAL HOUSING PROVISION 15
3.4 SOCIAL HOUSING PROVISION IN ENGLAND 16
3.4.1 Overview 16
3.4.2 Private registered providers 17
3.4.3 Local authorities 20
3.5 SOCIAL HOUSING PROVISION IN SCOTLAND 21
3.6 SOCIAL HOUSING PROVISION IN WALES 22
4. SOCIAL HOUSING CONSTRUCTION 23
4.1 RECENT DEVELOPMENTS AND TRENDS 23
4.2 KEY MARKET FACTORS 27
4.2.1 Socio-economic and demographic 27
4.2.2 Impact of reductions in funding on social housing output 28
4.2.3 Resumption in local authority housing delivery 29
4.2.4 Impact of Right to Buy on size of social housing stock 31
4.2.5 Homes England’s strategic plan 32
4.2.6 Affordable housing programmes 33
4.2.7 Land Availability 35
4.2.8 Shortages of construction trades and professionals 35
4.2.9 Growth in uptake of offsite housing in social housing sector 37
4.2.10 Impact of the covid-19 pandemic on housing output 40
4.2.11 Impact of the UK leaving the EU 41
5. SOCIAL/AFFORDABLE HOUSING NEWBUILD MARKET MIXES 42
5.1 NEWBUILD ACTIVITY BY REGION 42
5.2 NEWBUILD ACTIVITY BY TENURE 42
5.2.1 UK 42
5.2.2 England 43
5.2.3 Scotland 44
5.2.4 Wales 45
5.3 NEWBUILD ACTIVITY BY FUNDING MECHANISM 46
5.4 NEWBUILD ACTIVITY BY TYPES OF DWELLING 47
6. CONTRACTING IN THE SOCIAL HOUSING SECTOR 50
6.1 OVERVIEW 50
6.2 PRIVATE SECTOR FOR-PROFIT HOUSING DEVELOPERS 50
6.3 NOT-FOR-PROFIT PROVIDERS / HOUSING ASSOCIATION DEVELOPERS 55
6.4 LOCAL AUTHORITIES  – DIRECT DELIVERY AND LOCAL HOUSING COMPANIES 61
7. PROCUREMENT 64
APPENDICES 67
APPENDIX A: ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT 67
A.1 OVERVIEW AND OUTLOOK 67
A.2 GDP 67
A.3 INFLATION & INTEREST RATES 69
A.4 EMPLOYMENT & WAGES 70
A.5 HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION 71
A.6 STERLING 72

TABLES AND CHARTS

 

CHART 1: UK AFFORDABLE HOUSING NEWBUILD COMPLETIONS BY NUMBER OF DWELLINGS AND BY VALUE 2015-2016 TO 2019-2020 AND FORECASTS TO 2022-2023 11
CHART 2: DWELLING STOCK BY COUNTRY AND TENURE BY NUMBERS OF UNITS AT 1 APRIL 2019 15
CHART 3: UK SOCIAL HOUSING STOCK – NUMBERS OF SELF-CONTAINED DWELLINGS BY TENURE 2010-2019 16
CHART 4: ENGLAND SOCIAL HOUSING STOCK –  NUMBERS OF SELF-CONTAINED DWELLINGS BY TENURE 2010-2019 17
CHART 5: ENGLAND – PRP OWNED STOCK BY % TYPES OF TENURE 2019 (3 MILLION UNITS / BEDSPACES) 19
CHART 6: ENGLAND – REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF PRP OWNED HOUSING STOCK BY NUMBER OF DWELLINGS, 2019 19
CHART 7: SCOTLAND SOCIAL HOUSING STOCK – NUMBERS OF SELF-CONTAINED DWELLINGS BY TENURE 2010-2019 21
CHART 8: WALES SOCIAL HOUSING STOCK – NUMBERS OF SELF-CONTAINED DWELLINGS BY TENURE 2010-2019 22
CHART 9: UK AFFORDABLE HOUSING NEWBUILD COMPLETIONS BY NUMBER OF DWELLINGS AND BY VALUE 2015-2016 TO 2019-2020 AND FORECASTS TO 2022-2023 24
CHART 10: UK SOCIAL HOUSING COMPLETIONS BY NUMBERS OF DWELLINGS BY SOCIAL LANDLORD TYPE 2015-2016 TO 2019-2020  AND FORECASTS TO 2022-2023 26
TABLE 11: ENGLAND – HOUSEHOLD SIZE ESTIMATES BY ‘000S OF DWELLINGS 2014 – 2039 28
CHART 12: TRENDS IN ANNUAL RIGHT TO BUY SALES BY NUMBER BY COUNTRY 2010-2011 TO 2019-2020 31
TABLE 13: SHARED OWNERSHIP AND AFFORDABLE HOMES PROGRAMME (SOAHP) 2016-2021: GRANT ALLOCATION BY REGION 34
CHART 14: FEDERATION OF MASTER BUILDERS STATE OF TRADE SURVEY Q4 2019 % OF RESPONDENTS REPORTING SKILLED TRADES IN SHORT SUPPLY 36
TABLE 15: RECENT ENTRANTS TO THE OFFSITE HOUSING MARKET 39
CHART 16: UK AFFORDABLE/SOCIAL HOUSING NEWBUILD – NUMBER OF COMPLETIONS BY REGION 2015-2016 TO 2018-2019 42
CHART 17: UK AFFORDABLE/SOCIAL HOUSING  – NUMBER OF COMPLETIONS BY NUMBER OF DWELLINGS BY TENURE 2015-2016 TO 2018-2019 43
CHART 18: ENGLAND AFFORDABLE/SOCIAL HOUSING  – NUMBER OF COMPLETIONS BY NUMBER OF DWELLINGS BY TENURE  2015-2016 TO 2018-2019 44
CHART 19: SCOTLAND AFFORDABLE/SOCIAL HOUSING  – NUMBER OF COMPLETIONS BY NUMBER OF DWELLINGS BY TENURE 2015-2016 TO 2018-2019 45
CHART 20: WALES AFFORDABLE/SOCIAL HOUSING – NUMBER OF COMPLETIONS BY NUMBER OF DWELLINGS BY TENURE 2015-2016 TO 2018-2019 46
CHART 21: ENGLAND AFFORDABLE/SOCIAL HOUSING – NUMBER OF COMPLETIONS BY NUMBER OF DWELLINGS BY FUNDING MECHANISM 2015-2016 TO 2018-2019 47
CHART 22: ENGLAND PUBLIC SECTOR HOUSES – TOTAL NUMBER OF COMPLETIONS BY DWELLING SIZES (NUMBERS OF BEDROOMS) 2014-2015 TO 2018-2019 48
CHART 23: ENGLAND PUBLIC SECTOR FLATS – TOTAL NUMBER OF COMPLETIONS BY DWELLING SIZE (NUMBERS OF BEDROOMS)     2014-2015 TO 2018-2019 49
TABLE 24: LARGEST PRIVATE HOUSEBUILDER DEVELOPERS OF AFFORDABLE HOUSING BY NUMBER OF COMPLETIONS IN 2019 51
TABLE 25: 20 LARGEST HOUSING ASSOCIATION DEVELOPERS AND COMPLETIONS BY TENURE 2018 TO 2019 56
CHART 26: 2019-2020 TO 2023-2024 DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE BY DELIVERY MECHANISM BY NUMBER OF HOMES TO BE BUILT 63
CHART A1: GVA CHAINED VOLUME MEASURES, 2015-2020, KEY CONSTITUENT ELEMENTS 68
CHART A2: CPI INFLATION AND BANK OF ENGLAND BASE RATE, 2008-2023 69
CHART A3: AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS DATA – GB – TOTAL PAY – 2014-2019 (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 70
CHART A4: DI PER CAPITA & SAVINGS RATIO AT CURRENT PRICES 2008-2023 71
CHART A5: EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONS 2015-2019, STERLING TO THE DOLLAR AND THE EURO, SPOT RATES 72

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