CONTENTS
RESEARCH SERVICES OFFERED BY AMA RESEARCH 3
1. INTRODUCTION 8
1.1 INTRODUCTION 8
1.2 SOURCES OF INFORMATION 9
1.3 GLOSSARY OF TERMS 10
2. SUMMARY 11
3. SOCIAL HOUSING PROVISION IN THE UK 14
3.1 DEFINITION 14
3.2 OVERARCHING ORGANISATIONS 14
3.2.1 England 14
3.2.2 Wales 14
3.2.3 Scotland 14
3.2.4 Northern Ireland 15
3.3 UK OVERVIEW OF SOCIAL HOUSING PROVISION 15
3.4 SOCIAL HOUSING PROVISION IN ENGLAND 16
3.4.1 Overview 16
3.4.2 Private registered providers 17
3.4.3 Local authorities 20
3.5 SOCIAL HOUSING PROVISION IN SCOTLAND 21
3.6 SOCIAL HOUSING PROVISION IN WALES 22
4. SOCIAL HOUSING CONSTRUCTION 23
4.1 RECENT DEVELOPMENTS AND TRENDS 23
4.2 KEY MARKET FACTORS 27
4.2.1 Socio-economic and demographic 27
4.2.2 Impact of reductions in funding on social housing output 28
4.2.3 Resumption in local authority housing delivery 29
4.2.4 Impact of Right to Buy on size of social housing stock 31
4.2.5 Homes England’s strategic plan 32
4.2.6 Affordable housing programmes 33
4.2.7 Land Availability 35
4.2.8 Shortages of construction trades and professionals 35
4.2.9 Growth in uptake of offsite housing in social housing sector 37
4.2.10 Impact of the covid-19 pandemic on housing output 40
4.2.11 Impact of the UK leaving the EU 41
5. SOCIAL/AFFORDABLE HOUSING NEWBUILD MARKET MIXES 42
5.1 NEWBUILD ACTIVITY BY REGION 42
5.2 NEWBUILD ACTIVITY BY TENURE 42
5.2.1 UK 42
5.2.2 England 43
5.2.3 Scotland 44
5.2.4 Wales 45
5.3 NEWBUILD ACTIVITY BY FUNDING MECHANISM 46
5.4 NEWBUILD ACTIVITY BY TYPES OF DWELLING 47
6. CONTRACTING IN THE SOCIAL HOUSING SECTOR 50
6.1 OVERVIEW 50
6.2 PRIVATE SECTOR FOR-PROFIT HOUSING DEVELOPERS 50
6.3 NOT-FOR-PROFIT PROVIDERS / HOUSING ASSOCIATION DEVELOPERS 55
6.4 LOCAL AUTHORITIES – DIRECT DELIVERY AND LOCAL HOUSING COMPANIES 61
7. PROCUREMENT 64
APPENDICES 67
APPENDIX A: ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT 67
A.1 OVERVIEW AND OUTLOOK 67
A.2 GDP 67
A.3 INFLATION & INTEREST RATES 69
A.4 EMPLOYMENT & WAGES 70
A.5 HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION 71
A.6 STERLING 72
TABLES AND CHARTS
CHART 1: UK AFFORDABLE HOUSING NEWBUILD COMPLETIONS BY NUMBER OF DWELLINGS AND BY VALUE 2015-2016 TO 2019-2020 AND FORECASTS TO 2022-2023 11
CHART 2: DWELLING STOCK BY COUNTRY AND TENURE BY NUMBERS OF UNITS AT 1 APRIL 2019 15
CHART 3: UK SOCIAL HOUSING STOCK – NUMBERS OF SELF-CONTAINED DWELLINGS BY TENURE 2010-2019 16
CHART 4: ENGLAND SOCIAL HOUSING STOCK – NUMBERS OF SELF-CONTAINED DWELLINGS BY TENURE 2010-2019 17
CHART 5: ENGLAND – PRP OWNED STOCK BY % TYPES OF TENURE 2019 (3 MILLION UNITS / BEDSPACES) 19
CHART 6: ENGLAND – REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF PRP OWNED HOUSING STOCK BY NUMBER OF DWELLINGS, 2019 19
CHART 7: SCOTLAND SOCIAL HOUSING STOCK – NUMBERS OF SELF-CONTAINED DWELLINGS BY TENURE 2010-2019 21
CHART 8: WALES SOCIAL HOUSING STOCK – NUMBERS OF SELF-CONTAINED DWELLINGS BY TENURE 2010-2019 22
CHART 9: UK AFFORDABLE HOUSING NEWBUILD COMPLETIONS BY NUMBER OF DWELLINGS AND BY VALUE 2015-2016 TO 2019-2020 AND FORECASTS TO 2022-2023 24
CHART 10: UK SOCIAL HOUSING COMPLETIONS BY NUMBERS OF DWELLINGS BY SOCIAL LANDLORD TYPE 2015-2016 TO 2019-2020 AND FORECASTS TO 2022-2023 26
TABLE 11: ENGLAND – HOUSEHOLD SIZE ESTIMATES BY ‘000S OF DWELLINGS 2014 – 2039 28
CHART 12: TRENDS IN ANNUAL RIGHT TO BUY SALES BY NUMBER BY COUNTRY 2010-2011 TO 2019-2020 31
TABLE 13: SHARED OWNERSHIP AND AFFORDABLE HOMES PROGRAMME (SOAHP) 2016-2021: GRANT ALLOCATION BY REGION 34
CHART 14: FEDERATION OF MASTER BUILDERS STATE OF TRADE SURVEY Q4 2019 % OF RESPONDENTS REPORTING SKILLED TRADES IN SHORT SUPPLY 36
TABLE 15: RECENT ENTRANTS TO THE OFFSITE HOUSING MARKET 39
CHART 16: UK AFFORDABLE/SOCIAL HOUSING NEWBUILD – NUMBER OF COMPLETIONS BY REGION 2015-2016 TO 2018-2019 42
CHART 17: UK AFFORDABLE/SOCIAL HOUSING – NUMBER OF COMPLETIONS BY NUMBER OF DWELLINGS BY TENURE 2015-2016 TO 2018-2019 43
CHART 18: ENGLAND AFFORDABLE/SOCIAL HOUSING – NUMBER OF COMPLETIONS BY NUMBER OF DWELLINGS BY TENURE 2015-2016 TO 2018-2019 44
CHART 19: SCOTLAND AFFORDABLE/SOCIAL HOUSING – NUMBER OF COMPLETIONS BY NUMBER OF DWELLINGS BY TENURE 2015-2016 TO 2018-2019 45
CHART 20: WALES AFFORDABLE/SOCIAL HOUSING – NUMBER OF COMPLETIONS BY NUMBER OF DWELLINGS BY TENURE 2015-2016 TO 2018-2019 46
CHART 21: ENGLAND AFFORDABLE/SOCIAL HOUSING – NUMBER OF COMPLETIONS BY NUMBER OF DWELLINGS BY FUNDING MECHANISM 2015-2016 TO 2018-2019 47
CHART 22: ENGLAND PUBLIC SECTOR HOUSES – TOTAL NUMBER OF COMPLETIONS BY DWELLING SIZES (NUMBERS OF BEDROOMS) 2014-2015 TO 2018-2019 48
CHART 23: ENGLAND PUBLIC SECTOR FLATS – TOTAL NUMBER OF COMPLETIONS BY DWELLING SIZE (NUMBERS OF BEDROOMS) 2014-2015 TO 2018-2019 49
TABLE 24: LARGEST PRIVATE HOUSEBUILDER DEVELOPERS OF AFFORDABLE HOUSING BY NUMBER OF COMPLETIONS IN 2019 51
TABLE 25: 20 LARGEST HOUSING ASSOCIATION DEVELOPERS AND COMPLETIONS BY TENURE 2018 TO 2019 56
CHART 26: 2019-2020 TO 2023-2024 DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE BY DELIVERY MECHANISM BY NUMBER OF HOMES TO BE BUILT 63
CHART A1: GVA CHAINED VOLUME MEASURES, 2015-2020, KEY CONSTITUENT ELEMENTS 68
CHART A2: CPI INFLATION AND BANK OF ENGLAND BASE RATE, 2008-2023 69
CHART A3: AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS DATA – GB – TOTAL PAY – 2014-2019 (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 70
CHART A4: DI PER CAPITA & SAVINGS RATIO AT CURRENT PRICES 2008-2023 71
CHART A5: EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONS 2015-2019, STERLING TO THE DOLLAR AND THE EURO, SPOT RATES 72
