Space Heating Market Report – UK 2020-2024

The 6th edition of the ‘Space Heating Market Report UK 2020-2024’ has been published by AMA Research. The report represents an informed and up-to-date detailed review of the Residential and non-Residential space heating market.

The report reviews developments within the industry, with emphasis on both qualitative and quantitative market assessment – essential requirements to good marketing planning. Recent trends, key influencing factors and forecasts of future developments are assessed.

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The 6th edition of the ‘Space Heating Market Report UK 2020-2024’ has been published by AMA Research. The report represents an informed and up-to-date detailed review of the Residential and non-Residential space heating market.

With the UK Government target for carbon net zero emissions by 2050 and growing concerns about energy efficiency and the environment, both Residential and non-Residential space heating products are increasingly designed to deliver improved thermal performance and produce lower carbon emissions.

Key Issues Covered in the Report

Residential Space Heating – gas and electric fires; installed electric heating; portables; solid fuel stoves; radiant bar fires.
Non-Residential Space Heating – commercial and industrial boilers; commercial radiators; heat emitters; warm air heaters; radiant heaters; commercial heating controls.

Areas of Particular Interest

An assessment of the effects that Covid-19 and UK exit from the EU will have on this market in the short to medium term, including current weakness of Sterling and the high cost of imports.
Impact of increasing legislation – Part L 2020, SAP 10, Future Homes Standard, Clean Growth Strategy, ErP 2022 (critical limits on PM emissions for solid fuel stoves).
As the UK moves towards the decarbonisation of the electricity supply, demand for energy efficient electric space heating systems is in greater demand.
Replacement opportunities in the solid fuel stoves sector – around one thirds of stoves do not meet DEFRA standards for PM; around 5 million inefficient storage heaters 15+ years old.
With Covid-19 and trend towards home-working; energy efficient portables, fires, and stoves are increasingly used for day-time heating of the home.
Growing use of IoT smart heating controls in commercial buildings, to manage energy efficiency and support preventative maintenance measures.
Since of the start of the Covid-19 pandemic and the subsequent lockdowns, the level of online purchases has risen dramatically and remain high.
Growing importance of renewables; many new commercial projects specifying systems that use energy from renewable sources, including CHP district heating with commercial boilers.

Some of the Companies listed within the report:

ACR Heat Products, ACV UK , AEL Heating Solutions Ltd, Babcock Wanson, Banico Controls, Barbas Bellfires, Baxi Heating UK, Bosch Thermotechnology Ltd, Burley Appliances, Byworth Boilers, Caledonian Control Technology,
CFB Boilers, Dyson, Ecostrad, ELCO Heating Solutions, Electric Radiators Direct, Fischer Future Heat, Flamerite Fires, Focal Point Fires Plc, Glen Dimplex Heating & Ventilation, Hamworthy Heating, Haverland UK, Heat Electric, Herschel Infrared, Purmo Group, Siemens Plc, Technotherm, Terma, TFC Group, Vaillant, Wavin, Wolseley

Key areas covered in the Report

Market Overview

The report reviews developments within the industry, with emphasis on both QUALITATIVE AND QUANTITATIVE market assessment – essential requirements to good marketing planning. Recent trends, key influencing factors and forecasts of future developments are assessed.

Product Sectors

Residential Space Heating
Product mix – gas and electric fires, installed electric heating, portables, solid fuel stoves, radiant bar fires etc.
Gas and electric fires. Market size, share etc. Product innovation, designs etc.
Installed electric heating – storage heaters, electric radiators, electric towel warmers, fixed panel heaters, infrared panel heaters, tubular heaters. Market size, trends, market prospects, designs, features etc.
Portables – fan heaters, convector heaters, portable panel heaters, LPG heaters, oil filled & oil free radiators etc. Market size, mix by type, trends, market prospects etc.
Solid fuel stoves – wood burners and multi-fuel. Market size, growth in sales, product trends, and impact of legislation, self-build etc.
Radiant bar fires – gas-fired and electric. Market size, trends etc.

Commercial Space Heating
Commercial boilers > 44kW – market size, market prospects etc. Product trends, features, shift to condensing, modular systems, off-site constructed plant, heat networks etc.
Commercial radiators – market size, forecasts, product trends etc.
Heat emitters – air curtains, fan convectors, fan coil units, perimeter/trench heaters, unit heaters, radiant panel heaters etc. Overall market size, trends, market prospects etc.
Warm air heaters – indirect-fired warm air heaters, direct gas-fired warm air systems, portable electric warm air heaters etc. Overall market size, trends, market prospects etc.
Radiant heaters – gas or oil-fired tube heaters, gas plaque and electric radiant heaters etc. Overall market size, trends, forecasts etc.
Non-domestic heating controls – market size, trends including IoT smart controls, market prospects etc.

Market Prospects

Residential Space Heating
Overall market size, trends, and forecasts – legislative changes, impact of UFH, domestic central heating etc. Ownership levels, source of fuel, imports & exports. Forecasts through to 2024.

Commercial Space Heating
Overall market size, trends and forecasts. Legislative changes – Part L 2020, MCPD, EPBD, ErP 2018 etc. Government initiatives – PSDS, ECA, ETL, ESOS, NDRHI. Impact of IoT. Forecasts through to 2024.

Market prospects in all product sectors.

Supply and Distribution

Residential Space Heating
Major manufacturers – Market share, factors influencing market position, characteristics, turnover etc.
Review of distribution by product group – key channels and developments.

Commercial Space Heating
Leading manufacturers – market shares, characteristics, turnover etc.
Review of distribution by product group – key channels and developments.

The UK space heating market saw moderate to steady growth of 1-3% per annum in the 5-year period 2015-19. Improving levels of consumer and business confidence and higher levels of expenditure supported value growth at this time. However, this growth was tempered somewhat by the uncertainty surrounding the Brexit transition process.

Key drivers include housebuilding & construction, and RMI activity, with the private sector having the greatest influence on non-residential space heating demand, particularly in sectors such as industrial, offices, leisure and retail. The higher cost of imports, given the current weakness of Sterling, also supported value growth.

CONTENTS

RESEARCH SERVICES OFFERED BY AMA RESEARCH 3
1. INTRODUCTION 8
1.1 BACKGROUND 8
1.2 SOURCES OF INFORMATION 8
2. SUMMARY AND MARKET PROSPECTS 10
2.1 SUMMARY 10
2.2 KEY TRENDS 12
2.3 MARKET PROSPECTS 13
3. SPACE HEATING – RESIDENTIAL 16
3.1 MARKET OVERVIEW 16
3.1.1 Definition 16
3.1.2 Market Size & Development 16
3.1.3 Household Penetration 20
3.1.4 Source of Fuel 21
3.1.5 Imports and Exports (EU, Non-EU) 22
3.2 KEY MARKET INFLUENCES 24
3.2.1 Residential Housing Market – New Build & Refurbishment 24
3.2.2 Residential Central Heating Market 28
3.2.3 Underfloor Heating Market 29
3.2.4 Environmental Legislation 30
3.3 PRODUCT TRENDS 33
3.3.1 Product Mix 33
3.3.2 Gas & Electric Fires 34
3.3.3 Solid Fuel Stoves and Fires 39
3.3.4 Installed Electric Heating 41
3.3.5 Portable Space Heating 45
3.3.6 Radiant Bar Fires 48
3.4 SUPPLIERS 48
3.4.1 Market Shares 48
3.4.2 Key Company Profiles 49
3.4.3 Other Suppliers 52
3.5 DISTRIBUTION 56
4. SPACE HEATING – NON-RESIDENTIAL 58
4.1 MARKET OVERVIEW 58
4.1.1 Definition 58
4.1.2 Market Size & Development 58
4.2 KEY MARKET INFLUENCES 61
4.2.1 Non-Residential Construction 61
4.2.2 Energy Efficiency Schemes (PSDS, ECA, ETL, ESOS, NDRHI) 63
4.2.3 Environmental Legislation 65
4.2.4 Smart Building Technologies 67
4.2.5 Heat Networks 67
4.2.6 Non-Residential Underfloor Heating (UFH) 68
4.3 PRODUCT TRENDS 69
4.3.1 Product Mix (Heating Systems, Stand-Alone Heaters, Heating Controls) 69
4.3.2 Commercial Heating Systems (Boilers, Radiators, Heat Emitters) 70
4.3.3 Stand-Alone Heaters (Warm Air Heaters, Radiant Heaters) 79
4.3.4 Heating Controls 83
4.4 SUPPLIERS AND MARKET SHARES 85
4.4.1 Commercial Heating Systems (Boilers, Radiators, Heat Emitters) 85
4.4.2 Stand Alone Heaters (Warm Air Heaters, Radiant Heaters) 92
4.4.3 Heating Controls 94
4.5 DISTRIBUTION (COMMERCIAL HEATING SYSTEMS, STAND-ALONE HEATERS) 96
APPENDICES 98
APPENDIX A: ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT 98
A.1 OVERVIEW AND OUTLOOK 98
A.2 GDP 98
A.3 INFLATION & INTEREST RATES 100
A.4 EMPLOYMENT & WAGES 101
A.5 HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION 102
A.6 STERLING 103

 

TABLES & CHARTS

CHART 1: UK SPACE HEATING MARKET BY VALUE (£M MSP) 2015-2024 10
TABLE 2: UK RESIDENTIAL SPACE HEATING MARKET (£M MSP) 2015-2024 17
CHART 3: NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS WITH SPACE HEATING AS MAIN HEATING SYSTEM IN ENGLAND 2009 – 2019 20
CHART 4: PERCENTAGE SPLITS OF UK HOUSEHOLDS WITH SPACE HEATING AS MAIN HEATING SYSTEM; BY TYPE BY TENURE 2019 21
CHART 5: MARKET MIX BY SOURCE OF FUEL (ELECTRICITY, GAS, SOLID FUEL) BY VALUE 2019 22
TABLE 6: IMPORTS AND EXPORTS OF RESIDENTIAL SPACE HEATING PRODUCTS 2019 (£M) 23
TABLE 7: RESIDENTIAL NEW HOUSING STARTS AND COMPLETIONS (ENGLAND, WALES AND SCOTLAND) (000’S) 2015 TO 2024 24
CHART 8: HOUSEBUILDING COMPLETIONS BY ENGLISH REGION % MIX BY TYPE OF DWELLING 2018/19 25
CHART 9: PERCENTAGE OF UK HOUSEHOLDS WITH CENTRAL HEATING – 1996, 2006 AND 2019 28
TABLE 10: UK UNDERFLOOR HEATING MARKET BY VALUE (£M MSP) 2018-2022 29
CHART 11: MARKET MIX BY PRODUCT TYPE (GAS & ELECTRIC FIRES, STOVES, INSTALLED ELECTRIC HEATING, PORTABLES, RADIANT BAR FIRES) BY VALUE 2019 33
CHART 12: GAS AND ELECTRIC FIRES % MARKET MIX BY VOLUME 2001 AND 2019 35
TABLE 13: FEATURES AND BENEFITS OF ELECTRIC FIRES 36
TABLE 14: FEATURES AND BENEFITS OF GAS FIRES 37
TABLE 15: RESIDENTIAL SPACE HEATING SUPPLIERS % MARKET SHARES BY VALUE 2019 49
CHART 16: UK RESIDENTIAL SPACE HEATING MARKET DISTRIBUTION BY CHANNEL BY VALUE 2019 56
TABLE 17: UK NON-RESIDENTIAL SPACE HEATING MARKET (£M MSP) 2015-2024 59
CHART 18: GB NON-RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION OUTPUT NEW WORK AND RMI 2015 TO 2024 – BY VALUE (£ BILLION AT CURRENT PRICES) 62
CHART 19: NON-RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION NEW WORK OUTPUT BY SECTOR, 2015 TO 2024, BY VALUE (£BN AT CURRENT PRICES) 63
CHART 20: NON-RESIDENTIAL SPACE HEATING MARKET MIX BY PRODUCT TYPE 2019 70
TABLE 21: UK COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL BOILER MARKET (£M MSP) 2015-2024 71
TABLE 22: UK COMMERCIAL RADIATOR MARKET (£M MSP) 2015-2024 74
TABLE 23: UK COMMERCIAL HEAT EMITTER MARKET (£M MSP) 2015-2024 76
TABLE 24: UK STAND-ALONE HEATERS MARKET (£M MSP) 2015-2024 80
TABLE 25: UK COMMERCIAL HEATING CONTROLS MARKET (£M MSP) 2015-2024 83
TABLE 26: COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL BOILER SUPPLIERS % MARKET SHARES BY VALUE 2019 86
TABLE 27: COMMERCIAL RADIATOR SUPPLIERS % MARKET SHARES BY VALUE 2019 89
TABLE 28: HEAT EMITTER SUPPLIERS % MARKET SHARES BY VALUE 2019 91
TABLE 29: STAND ALONE HEATER SUPPLIERS % MARKET SHARES BY VALUE 2019 93
CHART 30: MARKET DISTRIBUTION BY CHANNEL (DIRECT, DISTRIBUTOR) BY VALUE 2019 96
TABLE 31: MARKET DISTRIBUTION BY APPLICATION TYPE (INDUSTRIAL, COMMERCIAL, PUBLIC) BY VALUE 2019 97
CHART A1: GVA CHAINED VOLUME MEASURES, 2015-2020, KEY CONSTITUENT ELEMENTS 100
CHART A2: CPI INFLATION AND BANK OF ENGLAND BASE RATE, 2008-2023 101
CHART A3: AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS DATA – GB – TOTAL PAY – 2014-2019 (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 102
CHART A4: DI PER CAPITA & SAVINGS RATIO AT CURRENT PRICES 2008-2023 102
CHART A5: EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONS 2015-2019, STERLING TO THE DOLLAR AND THE EURO, SPOT RATES 104


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