Underfloor Heating Market Report - UK 2022-2026 - AMA Research

Underfloor Heating Market Report – UK 2022-2026

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Underfloor heating is one of the fastest-growing sectors of the UK heating industry, accounting for around 8% share by value in 2021. The report focuses on market size and trends, regulatory developments, product mix, industry supply, distribution, and market prospects.

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The 11th edition of the Underfloor Heating Market Report UK 2022-2026 focuses on market size and trends, regulatory developments, product mix, industry supply, distribution, and market prospects. Underfloor heating is one of the fastest-growing sectors of the UK heating industry, accounting for around 8% share by value in 2021.

Key Issues Covered in the Report

  • An assessment of the impact of Brexit, the pandemic and cost-of-living crisis on the UK underfloor heating market, including the ongoing supply chain issues, the high price of imports and escalating production costs.
  • Review and market size estimates of the water-based and electric UFH product sectors, including product mix, end-use application mix, and market mix in terms of new build and retrofit installations.
  • Assessment of key end-use applications with a focus on the sectors that offer the greatest potential for growth – new housebuilding, residential RMI, self-build housing, non-residential applications, public sector applications etc.
  • Overview of the leading UK UFH manufacturers including company profiles and financials.
  • Supply chain review including market map, main distributors, and key channels.

Some of the Companies Featured:

Travis Perkins, Wolseley UK, UK Plumbing Supplies, Saint Gobain, Grafton, Plumbase, Online Home Retail, Plumbworld, Huws Gray, Frontline Bathrooms, Bathroom Distribution Group and more.

Areas of Particular Interest

  • Changing legislation impacting market demand for underfloor heating including Interim Part L 2021, 2025 Future Homes Standard, SAP 10 etc.
  • The government 2050 target for carbon net zero emissions and the influence of increasing environmental legislation regarding energy efficiency.
  • The increasing focus on renewable technologies, particularly heat pumps, and the impact this has on underfloor heating market demand.
  • Product innovation and technological developments such as hybrid and retrofit solutions and the development of smart UFH controls. The increased requirement for interoperability and remote control of intelligent UFH systems.

Key Areas Covered in this Report

Market summary

  • Market size by value 2017 to 2022, rates of change. Market overview including the main benefits of underfloor heating. Market share estimates of the leading UFH suppliers.
  • Market splits including mix by product type – water-based, electric UFH; by end-use application – residential, non-residential; by type of installation – new build, retrofit.

Market influences & drivers

  • Main influences that drive the underfloor heating industry including detailed PESTLE analysis.
  • Analysis including impact of Brexit, the pandemic, and cost-of-living crisis.
    • Changes in government leadership, policy, and standards.
    • Economic forecasts and impact on confidence levels.
    • Social factors such as interior design trends including open-plan living, growth of wetrooms and floorcovering trends.
    • Product innovations including hybrid and retrofit solutions and the development of smart UFH controls.
    • Environmental influences including the uptake of renewables, particularly heat pumps, and their compatibility with underfloor heating systems.

End use sectors

  • Summary of sectors driving demand for underfloor heating products, market split by sector.
  • Residential new build prospects and influences including housebuilding starts and completions, mix by type of dwelling, self-build market activity, affordable housing.
  • Residential RMI prospects and influences including growth in home improvements. UFH in conservatories and glazed extensions and garden buildings for ‘all year round’ use.
  • Non-residential new work prospects and influences including construction activity, overall and by key end-use sectors – with a focus on health and education.

Product subsectors

  • Water-based UFH – sector size by value 2017 to 2022. Market overview including trends and influences, product developments. Market split by end-use application. End users, key players, leading company market shares and profiles.
  • Electric UFH – market size by value 2017 to 2022. Market overview – cable systems, electric mat systems. Market split by end-use application. End users, key suppliers, leading company market shares and profiles.

Distribution

  • Review of distribution – market map, key channels, direct and indirect supply.
    • Company overview and financials of key distributors – merchants, electrical wholesalers, home improvement multiples, online retailers, tile specialists etc.
    • Underfloor heating contractors.

Market forecasts

  • Ten-year UK underfloor heating market view 2017 – 2021, plus forecasts to 2026, rates of change.
  • Summary of market prospects and influences.

In recent years market demand for underfloor heating has grown steadily in the UK, particularly within the residential sector. Advances in technology, making systems easier to install and control, coupled with the requirement for improved energy efficiency and added comfort, have all contributed towards this growth.

Underfloor heating is increasingly viewed as a viable alternative to more traditional methods of home heating by many UK households. It offers many advantages over radiators including added comfort, cleaner air and it is cheaper to run. Its suitability and compatibility with many popular hard floorcoverings – such as ceramic tiles and stone – means that further penetration in UK homes is expected.

Growth is also projected within the non-residential sector, despite the current uncertain economic climate with new government leadership and the cost-of-living crisis. Adoption of underfloor heating systems is steadily increasing in non-residential buildings such as schools, hospitals, and commercial offices.

One significant driver of underfloor heating is the increasing focus on energy efficiency, with the government drive towards carbon net zero emissions by 2050 and the implementation of the Future Homes Standard by 2025.

Given that the central heating demand of new build homes to meet this new housing standard is likely to be exceptionally low, the relatively low output of a heat pump is anticipated to be suitable for most UK residential housing. Water-based underfloor heating systems are particularly compatible with this low-carbon home energy solution.

In addition, there is a greater focus upon home energy ratings via Standard Assessment Procedures (SAP 10) and the 2021 interim uplift to Part L of the Building Regulations. These have contributed towards growth in demand for more energy efficient home heating solutions such as water-based and electric underfloor heating.

Another positive influence on the UK underfloor heating market is the growing number of plumbing & heating engineers which have been trained in the installation of underfloor heating systems. Greater product awareness and knowledge amongst installers is likely to boost recommendations to customers.

Product developments have made underfloor heating systems easier to install, broadening their appeal for the retrofit market. This has led to the emergence of systems (both water-based and electric) which can be laid over existing floors, thereby minimising disruption and speeding up installation time.

The prospects for the UK underfloor heating market in Q4-2022 are positive, with a strengthening construction pipeline of new work and RMI activity going forward. The market is expected to achieve a CAGR of 4.91% between 2022 and 2026, with the annual growth rate increasing towards the end of the forecast period.

CONTENTS

1. INTRODUCTION 7
1.1 CONTEXT 7
1.2 SOURCES OF INFORMATION 7
1.3 DEFINITION 8
1.4 ABBREVIATIONS 9
2. MARKET SUMMARY 11
2.1 MARKET SIZE 11
2.2 MARKET OVERVIEW 12
2.3 MARKET SPLITS 15
2.3.1 Market mix by product category (water-based, electric) 15
2.3.2 Market mix by type of application (residential, non-residential) 16
2.3.3 Market mix by type of installation (new build, retrofit) 17
3. MARKET INFLUENCES AND DRIVERS 19
3.1 MAIN MARKET INFLUENCES AND DRIVERS 19
3.2 POLITICAL INFLUENCES AND DRIVERS 19
3.3 ECONOMIC INFLUENCES AND DRIVERS 21
3.4 SOCIAL INFLUENCES AND DRIVERS 23
3.5 TECHNOLOGICAL INFLUENCES AND DRIVERS 25
3.6 LEGAL INFLUENCES AND DRIVERS 28
3.7 ENVIRONMENTAL INFLUENCES AND DRIVERS 28
4. END USE SECTORS 31
4.1 END-USE MIX BY APPLICATION 31
4.2 RESIDENTIAL SECTOR PROSPECTS AND INFLUENCES 32
4.2.1 Overview 32
4.2.2 New build starts and completions 33
4.2.3 Completions by type of dwelling 34
4.2.4 Self-build market 36
4.2.5 Affordable housing 38
4.2.6 Residential RMI activity 39
4.2.7 Conservatories & glazed extensions 41
4.2.8 Garden buildings for ‘all year use’ 42
4.3 NON-RESIDENTIAL SECTOR PROSPECTS AND INFLUENCES 42
4.3.1 Overview 42
4.3.2 Health construction 44
4.3.3 Education construction 46
4.3.4 Other construction sectors 47
5. MARKET SUB SECTORS 51
5.1 WATER-BASED UFH SYSTEMS – MARKET SIZE (VALUE) 51
5.1.1 Water-based UFH systems – sub sector market summary 52
5.1.2 Water-based UFH systems – sub sector application mix 54
5.1.3 Water-based UFH systems – sub sector end users 55
5.1.4 Water-based UFH systems – sub sector suppliers / key players 55
5.1.5 Water-based UFH systems – company market shares and profiles 56
5.2 ELECTRIC UFH PRODUCTS – MARKET SIZE (VALUE) 65
5.2.1 Electric UFH systems – sub sector market summary 66
5.2.2 Electric UFH systems – sub sector application mix 68
5.2.3 Electric UFH systems – sub sector end users 69
5.2.4 Electric UFH systems – sub sector suppliers / key players 70
5.2.5 Electric UFH systems – company market shares and profiles 70
6. DISTRIBUTION 75
6.1 MARKET STRUCTURE 75
6.2 CHANNEL SHARES BY SUPPLIER 77
6.2.1 Residential 77
6.2.2 Non-residential 78
6.3 KEY COMPANY PROFILES 78
6.3.1 Merchants 78
6.3.2 Plumbing and heating distributors 82
6.3.3 Electrical wholesalers 82
6.3.4 Home improvement multiples 84
6.3.5 Online retailers 85
6.3.6 Tile specialists 86
6.3.7 Underfloor heating contractors 87
7. MARKET FORECASTS 90
7.1 TEN-YEAR MARKET VIEW (FIVE YEARS BACK, FIVE YEARS FORWARD) 90
7.2 UNDERFLOOR HEATING MARKET PROSPECTS AND INFLUENCES 90
APPENDICES 93
APPENDIX A: ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT 93
A.1 OVERVIEW AND OUTLOOK 93
A.2 GDP 93
A.3 INFLATION & INTEREST RATES 95
A.4 EMPLOYMENT & WAGES 96
A.5 HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION 97
A.6 STERLING 98
A.7 TRADE & BUSINESS INVESTMENT 99
RESEARCH SERVICES OFFERED BY AMA RESEARCH 100

TABLES & CHARTS

CHART 1: UK UNDERFLOOR HEATING MARKET BY VALUE (£M MSP) 2017 – 2022 11
TABLE 2: THE BENEFITS AND LIMITATIONS OF UNDERFLOOR HEATING 14
TABLE 3: UNDERFLOOR HEATING SUPPLIERS % MARKET SHARES BY VALUE 2021 15
CHART 4: UK UNDERFLOOR HEATING MARKET MIX BY PRODUCT CATEGORY 2021 (% BY VALUE) 16
CHART 5: UK UNDERFLOOR HEATING MARKET MIX BY TYPE OF APPLICATION 2021 (% BY VALUE) 17
CHART 6: UK UNDERFLOOR HEATING MARKET MIX BY TYPE OF INSTALLATION 2021 (% BY VALUE) 18
TABLE 7: UK UNDERFLOOR HEATING MARKET PESTLE SUMMARY 2022 19
TABLE 8: KEY ECONOMIC VARIABLES 2019 – 2023 22
TABLE 9: UK WETROOM MARKET BY VALUE (£M MSP) 2017-2021 23
TABLE 10: UK FLOORCOVERINGS MARKET BY VALUE (£M MSP) 2017-2021 24
CHART 11: UK FLOORCOVERINGS MARKET MIX BY PRODUCT CATEGORY 2021 (% BY VALUE) 25
CHART 12: UK HOUSEHOLD PENETRATION OF SMART HEATING CONTROLS (2018, 2021, 2025) 26
TABLE 13: UK HEAT PUMP MARKET BY VALUE (£M MSP) 2017-2021 29
CHART 14: UK UNDERFLOOR HEATING MARKET MIX BY TYPE OF APPLICATION 2021 (% BY VALUE) 31
TABLE 15: RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION OUTPUT BY VALUE (£ BILLION AT CURRENT PRICES) 2017 – 2026 32
TABLE 16: GB RESIDENTIAL STARTS AND COMPLETIONS (ENGLAND, WALES, AND SCOTLAND) (000’S) 2017 – 2024 33
CHART 17: NEW BUILD COMPLETIONS MIX BY TYPE OF DWELLING 2007 – 2021 35
TABLE 18: UK SELF-BUILD MARKET BY NO. OF COMPLETIONS 2017-2021 37
TABLE 19: UK RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY TRANSACTIONS VALUED AT £40K OR ABOVE 2017-2021 40
TABLE 20: UK RESIDENTIAL CONSERVATORY & GLAZED EXTENSIONS MARKET 2017 – 2021 41
TABLE 21: UK GARDEN BUILDINGS FOR ‘ALL YEAR USE’ MARKET 2017 – 2021 42
CHART 22: NON-RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION OUTPUT NEW WORK & RMI BY VALUE 2017 – 2026 (£BN AT CURRENT PRICES) 43
CHART 23: NON-RESIDENTIAL NEW CONSTRUCTION OUTPUT ANALYSIS BY SECTOR 2021 AND 2026 (% BY VALUE) 44
CHART 24: VALUE OF CONTRACTORS OUTPUT IN THE HEALTH SECTOR (£BN AT CURRENT PRICES) 2017 – 2026 45
CHART 25: VALUE OF CONTRACTORS OUTPUT IN THE EDUCATION SECTOR (£BN AT CURRENT PRICES) 2017 – 2026 46
CHART 26: WATER-BASED UFH MARKET BY VALUE (£M MSP) 2017 – 2022 51
CHART 27: WATER-BASED UFH MARKET MIX BY TYPE OF APPLICATION 2021 (% BY VALUE) 54
TABLE 28: WATER-BASED UFH SUPPLIERS % MARKET SHARES BY VALUE 2021 56
TABLE 29: WAVIN UK LTD 57
TABLE 30: WARMAFLOOR GB LTD 58
TABLE 31: POLYPIPE LTD 59
TABLE 32: RELIANCE WORLDWIDE CORPORATION UK LTD 60
TABLE 33: NU-HEAT UK LTD 61
TABLE 34: PURMO GROUP UK LTD 62
TABLE 35: REHAU LTD 63
CHART 36: ELECTRIC UFH MARKET BY VALUE (£M MSP) 2017 – 2022 66
CHART 37: ELECTRIC UFH MARKET MIX BY TYPE OF APPLICATION 2021 (% BY VALUE) 69
TABLE 38: ELECTRIC UFH SUPPLIERS % MARKET SHARES BY VALUE 2021 70
TABLE 39: WARMUP PLC 71
TABLE 40: DANFOSS LTD 72
CHART 41: DISTRIBUTION STRUCTURE FOR UNDERFLOOR HEATING PRODUCTS 75
CHART 42: DISTRIBUTION OF UNDERFLOOR HEATING PRODUCTS TO END USERS 2021 76
CHART 43: DISTRIBUTION OF RESIDENTIAL UNDERFLOOR HEATING PRODUCTS BY CHANNEL 2021 77
TABLE 44: TRAVIS PERKINS LTD 80
TABLE 45: WOLSELEY UK LTD 81
TABLE 46: EDMUNDSON ELECTRICAL LTD 82
TABLE 47: CITY ELECTRICAL FACTORS LTD (CEF) 83
TABLE 48: REXEL UK LTD 83
TABLE 49: B & Q LTD 84
TABLE 50: THE UNDERFLOOR HEATING STORE LTD 86
TABLE 51: TOPPS TILES UK LTD 87
CHART 52: UK PLUMBING AND HVAC CONTRACTORS REGISTERED FOR VAT / PAYE BY EMPLOYMENT SIZE BAND 2021 88
TABLE 53: ENTERPRISES REGISTERED FOR VAT INVOLVED IN PLUMBING & HVAC INSTALLATION BY TURNOVER SIZE BAND 2021 89
TABLE 54: UK UNDERFLOOR HEATING MARKET BY VALUE (£M MSP) 2017 – 2026 90
CHART A1: GROSS VALUE ADDED BY SECTOR 95
CHART A2: CPI INFLATION AND BANK OF ENGLAND BASE RATE 96
CHART A3: AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS BY SECTOR 97
CHART A4: DISPOSABLE INCOME PER CAPITA & SAVINGS RATIO 98
CHART A5: STERLING EXCHANGE RATES TO THE DOLLAR AND THE EURO 98
CHART A6: TRADE & BUSINESS INVESTMENT, 2018-2020 99

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