Self Build Housing Market Report - UK 2021-2025 - AMA Research

Self Build Housing Market Report - UK 2021-2025

The 8th edition of the Self Build Housing Market Report – UK 2021-2025 contains analysis of the key influencing factors, recent market trends, regional analysis of self build opportunities and market prospects into the medium-term.

£995.00 Exc. VAT

The 8th edition of the Self Build Housing Market Report – UK 2021-2025 contains analysis of the key influencing factors, recent market trends, regional analysis of self-build opportunities and market prospects into the medium-term. This report contains original input and a detailed assessment of the market and represents excellent value for money to companies in the industry or considering entry.

Key Issues Covered in the Report

  • Market size by volume and value, historical & recent trends, sector share 2015-2020, medium-term forecasts 2021-2025.
  • Market mixes – routes to market, construction methods, use of renewable energy systems. and key influences.
  • Regional analysis – levels of activity and opportunities available for self- build in the English regions, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
  • Key product distribution channels

Some of the companies listed in this report:

Scotframe Timber Engineering, Kingspan Timber Solutions, Deeside Timberframe, Innovare Systems, HEMSEC Manufacturing, National Custom and Self-build Association (NaCSBA), National Self-build and Renovation Centre (NSBRC), BuildStore, Halifax, Hanley Economic Building Society, The Homes and Communities Agency (HCA), Community & Self-build Agency, Federation of Master Builders (FMB), Crest Nicholson, Barratt Homes, Laing O’Rourke’s, Explore Manufacturing, Legal & General, Berkeley Modular, Urban Splash, nHouse, Ecology Building Society, Insurance Green

Areas of Particular Interest

  • Analysis of factors underpinning and limiting market growth – land availability, access to finance, planning and housing policies, financial incentives to promote self-build.
  • In depth regional analysis reviewing self/custom build activity levels and plot availability in key English regions, Scotland, Wales & Northern Ireland.

KEY AREAS COVERED IN THE REPORT

Market Overview

  • Overview of UK housebuilding; starts and completions 2015/20 and forecasts to 2025, new build, conversions and permitted rights.
  • Review of self/custom build housing; number of completions & output value, construction routes, role played by the public & private sectors, etc.
  • Market drivers in recent years including availability and price of land, planning process, access to finance, exemptions and rebates, Permitted Rights.
  • Self-build costs analysis – land, labour, materials, plant hire, miscellaneous

Sector analysis

  • By project management approach; self-managed, contractor-led, client ‘DIY’ etc
  • By construction method – masonry, timber frame, SIPS etc
  • Use of renewable energy systems e.g. solar panels, heat pumps
  • Regional analyses – self build schemes with planning approval and number of self-build opportunities by county by region by number. Identification of hotspots.

Market Prospects

  • Over the next few years to 2025, growth opportunities depend on how long the pandemic lasts and how quickly the economy and the construction industry recover. Therefore, medium term forecasts are modest.

Supply and Distribution

  • Review of major suppliers of timber frame and SIPs systems – company overview, key products, sectors and financial information.
  • Review of products and materials distribution structure for self-build, illustrating direct supply and key channels including major companies operating in each channel and supply routes for fire resistant glass, ceilings and partitions.

The self-build market is part of the larger overall UK housebuilding sector which is defined as the number of dwellings built in the United Kingdom and includes all private sector, local authority and housing association properties. Self-build (including custom build) is housing built by individuals or groups of individuals for their own use.

Analysis indicates that self-build completions in 2019-20 were estimated to account for around 7-8% of overall completions but accounted for around 12% of total housing output. Since 2015, there has been steady growth in self-build completions, from around 11,800 to approximately 15,100 in 2019.

With the increasing focus on climate change and the government’s pledge to cut ‘greenhouse gas’ emissions to net zero by 2050, self-build offers the freedom to create homes which are energy efficient and sustainable, from recycled construction materials to the latest energy efficient technology.

Although impacted by the pandemic it is estimated that the decline in self-build completions in 2020 will be less than for the overall housebuilding market, falling by around 8% to reach approximately 13,900. This is because of the scale of self-build with smaller sites more likely to remain open during lockdown and the smaller nature of self-build sites making it easier to social distance as there is fewer people onsite. Offsite methods of construction commonly used for self-build, such as timber frame and SIPS, are also more conducive to Covid-19 safety measures such as social distancing.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

RESEARCH SERVICES OFFERED BY AMA RESEARCH 3
1. INTRODUCTION 9
1.1 BACKGROUND 9
1.2 SOURCES OF INFORMATION 9
2. SUMMARY AND MARKET PROSPECTS 11
3. UK HOUSEBUILDING OVERVIEW 16
3.1 Overview of Market Size and Trends 16
3.2 NEWBUILD 17
3.3 CONVERSIONS AND PERMITTED RIGHTS 18
4. SELF-BUILD MARKET IN THE UK 20
4.1 DEFINITION 20
4.2 MARKET SIZE AND TRENDS 20
4.2.1 Numbers of completions 20
4.2.2 Value of self-build market 22
4.2.3 Market prospects 23
4.3 MARKET INFLUENCES 24
4.3.1 Land availability and planning permissions 24
4.3.2 Availability of project finance 26
4.3.3 Availability of exemptions and rebates 29
4.3.4 Input from facilitating organisations 30
4.3.5 Availability of building trades 31
4.3.6 Permitted rights 33
5. MARKET MIXES 37
5.1 ROUTES TO MARKET 37
5.1.1 Self-managed 37
5.1.2 Contractor-led 38
5.1.3 Client DIY 38
5.1.4 Package contractors 39
5.1.5 Developer-built 39
5.1.6 Collective custom build or community-based 39
5.2 CONSTRUCTION METHODS 40
5.2.1 Overview 40
5.2.2 Standard masonry build 43
5.2.3 Timber frame 44
5.2.4 Other building systems 48
5.3 USE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY SYSTEMS IN SELF-BUILD 51
5.3.1 Overview 51
5.3.2 Heat pumps 53
5.3.3 Biomass 56
5.3.4 Solar PV and solar thermal 58
6. REGIONAL ANALYSIS 59
6.1 UK OVERVIEW 59
6.2 ENGLAND 63
6.2.1 Overview 63
6.2.2 South West 65
6.2.3 East Midlands 67
6.2.4 East of England 69
6.2.5 West Midlands 71
6.2.6 North West 73
6.2.7 South East 75
6.2.8 Yorkshire and the North East 77
6.2.9 Greater London 79
6.3 SCOTLAND, WALES AND NORTHERN IRELAND 79
6.3.1 Scotland 79
6.3.2 Wales 81
7. SELF-BUILD MARKET DISTRIBUTION AND SUPPLY 85
7.1 KEY PRODUCT SUPPLY AND DISTRIBUTION CHANNELS 85
7.2 BUILDERS MERCHANTS 87
7.3 INTERNET/DIRECT SALES 89
7.4 SELF-BUILD SPECIALIST SUPPLIERS 89
7.5 ELECTRICAL WHOLESALERS 90
7.6 DIY/HOME IMPROVEMENT MULTIPLES 91
APPENDICES 93
APPENDIX A: ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT 93
A.1 OVERVIEW AND OUTLOOK 93
A.2 GDP 93
A.3 INFLATION & INTEREST RATES 95
A.4 EMPLOYMENT & WAGES 96
A.5 HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION 97
A.6 STERLING 98

TABLES AND CHARTS

TABLE 1: UK SELF-BUILD MARKET BY OUTPUT (£BN) 2015 TO 2025 12
CHART 2: UK HOUSING CONSTRUCTION MARKET BY CONTRACTORS OUTPUT AND NUMBERS (NEWBUILD COMPLETIONS & CONVERSIONS – ‘000S) 2013/14 – 2018/2019 AND FORECASTS TO 2023/24 16
CHART 3: UK HOUSING – NUMBER LEGAL COMPLETIONS 2013/14- 2018/19 AND FORECASTS TO 2023/24 17
CHART 4: ENGLAND & SCOTLAND – NUMBER OF HOUSING CONVERSIONS 2013/14 – 2018/19 AND FORECASTS TO 2023/24 19
CHART 5: UK SELF-BUILD MARKET – ESTIMATED NUMBER OF COMPLETIONS 2015-2020 AND FORECASTS 2021-2025 21
TABLE 6: UK SELF-BUILD MARKET BY VALUE (£BN) 2015-2024 22
TABLE 7: UK SELF-BUILD, MAIN SOURCE OF FINANCE BY % OF PROJECT NUMBERS 2019-2020 27
CHART 8: FEDERATION OF MASTER BUILDERS STATE OF TRADE SURVEY % OF RESPONDENTS REPORTING SKILLED TRADES IN SHORT SUPPLY Q3 2019-Q3 2020 32
CHART 9: ENGLAND & SCOTLAND HOUSING CONVERSIONS BY NUMBER OF COMPLETIONS 2013-2014 TO 2018-2019 34
CHART 10: ENGLAND, HOUSING CONVERSIONS BY TYPE BY % OF PROJECT NUMBERS 2019-2020 35
CHART 11: UK, SELF-BUILD BY PROJECT ROUTES BY % OF SCHEMES 2019-2020 37
CHART 12: UK, SELF-BUILD BY CONSTRUCTION METHOD BY % OF NUMBER OF PROJECTS 2019-2020 41
CHART 13: ESTIMATED AVERAGE BREAKDOWN OF CONSTRUCTION ELEMENTS ON A NEW BRICK & BLOCK BUILT DETACHED TWO STOREY HOUSE 43
CHART 14: UK TIMBER FRAME HOUSEBUILDING COMPLETIONS BY NUMBER OF DWELLINGS (‘000) 2014-2015 TO 2019-2020 44
CHART 15: UK, TIMBER FRAME HOUSING END USE MIX (SOCIAL, PRIVATE, SELF-BUILD) % BY NUMBER OF COMPLETIONS 2019 45
CHART 16: ESTIMATED TYPICAL BREAKDOWN OF CONSTRUCTION ELEMENTS ON A NEW TIMBER FRAME DETACHED TWO STOREY HOUSE 46
CHART 17: GB, DOMESTIC RHI TOTAL DEPLOYMENT OF RENEWABLE HEAT SYSTEMS – % OF TOTAL NUMBER OF ACCREDITATIONS BY TECHNOLOGY APRIL 2014- DECEMBER 2020 52
CHART 18: GB, DOMESTIC RHI DEPLOYMENT OF OFF-GRID RENEWABLE HEAT SYSTEMS (EXCLUDING NORTHERN IRELAND) % OF TOTAL NUMBER OF ACCREDITATIONS BY TECHNOLOGY APRIL 2014-DECEMBER 2020 53
CHART 19: DOMESTIC RHI ACCREDITATIONS FOR HEAT PUMPS NUMBER OF ACCREDITATIONS 2014 -2020 54
CHART 20: GB, AIR SOURCE HEAT PUMPS CAPACITIES (KW) UNDER THE RHI – % OF APPLICATIONS BY CAPACITY APRIL 2014-DECEMBER 2020 55
CHART 21: GB, GROUND SOURCE HEAT PUMPS INSTALLED CAPACITIES (KW) UNDER RHI – % OF APPLICATIONS BY CAPACITY APRIL 2014-DECEMBER 2020 56
CHART 22: GB, BIOMASS BOILERS INSTALLED CAPACITIES (KW) UNDER THE RHI % OF APPLICATIONS BY CAPACITY APRIL 2014-DECEMBER 2020 57
TABLE 23: RUNNING COSTS AND CO2 EMISSIONS OF DIFFERENT SORTS OF HEATING TYPES 57
CHART 24: UK, SELF-BUILD OPPORTUNITIES BY COUNTRY BY % OF NUMBER OF OPPORTUNITIES JANUARY 2021 60
TABLE 25: ESTIMATES OF NUMBER OF SELF-BUILD SITES AND AVERAGE POPULATION DENSITIES BY REGION Q1 2021 61
CHART 26: RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN REGIONAL POPULATION DENSITIES AND NUMBER OF SITES AVAILABLE FOR SELF-BUILD 2020 62
CHART 27: CORRELATION BETWEEN AVERAGE NUMBERS OF SELF-BUILD OPPORTUNITIES AVAILABLE AND AVERAGE PLOT PRICES BY COUNTY Q1 2021 63
CHART 28: ENGLAND, % OF SELF-BUILD SCHEMES WITH DETAIL PLANNING APPROVAL % BY REGION JANUARY 2018 TO DECEMBER 2020 64
CHART 29: ENGLAND, % OF NUMBER OF SELF-BUILD OPPORTUNITIES BY REGION JANUARY 2021 65
CHART 30: SOUTH WEST, % OF SELF-BUILD SCHEMES WITH DETAIL PLANNING APPROVAL BY COUNTY JANUARY 2018-DECEMBER 2020 66
CHART 31: SOUTH WEST, % OF NUMBER OF SELF-BUILD OPPORTUNITIES BY COUNTY JANUARY 2021 67
CHART 32: EAST MIDLANDS, % OF SELF-BUILD SCHEMES WITH DETAIL PLANNING APPROVAL BY COUNTY JANUARY 2018-DECEMBER 2020 68
CHART 33: EAST MIDLANDS, % OF NUMBER OF SELF-BUILD OPPORTUNITIES BY COUNTY JANUARY 2021 69
CHART 34: EAST OF ENGLAND % OF SELF-BUILD SCHEMES WITH DETAIL PLANNING APPROVAL BY COUNTY JANUARY 2018-DECEMBER 2020 70
CHART 35: EAST OF ENGLAND, % OF NUMBERS OF SELF-BUILD OPPORTUNITIES BY COUNTY JANUARY 2021 71
CHART 36: WEST MIDLANDS % OF SELF-BUILD SCHEMES WITH DETAIL PLANNING APPROVAL BY COUNTY JANUARY 2018-DECEMBER 2020 72
CHART 37: WEST MIDLANDS, % OF NUMBER OF SELF-BUILD OPPORTUNITIES BY COUNTY JANUARY 2021 73
CHART 38: NORTH WEST % OF SELF-BUILD SCHEMES WITH DETAIL PLANNING APPROVAL BY COUNTY JANUARY 2018-DECEMBER 2020 74
CHART 39: NORTH WEST % OF NUMBER OF SELF-BUILD OPPORTUNITIES BY COUNTY JANUARY 2021 75
CHART 40: SOUTH EAST % OF SELF-BUILD SCHEMES WITH DETAIL PLANNING APPROVAL BY COUNTY JANUARY 2018 TO DECEMBER 2020 76
CHART 41: SOUTH EAST, % OF NUMBER OF SELF-BUILD OPPORTUNITIES BY COUNTY JANUARY 2021 77
CHART 42: YORKSHIRE AND NORTH EAST, % OF SELF-BUILD SCHEMES WITH DETAIL PLANNING APPROVAL BY COUNTY JANUARY 2018 TO DECEMBER 2020 78
CHART 43: YORKSHIRE AND NORTH EAST, % OF NUMBER OF SELF-BUILD OPPORTUNITIES BY COUNTY JANUARY 2021 78
CHART 44: GREATER LONDON, % SELF-BUILD SCHEMES WITH DETAIL PLANNING APPROVAL BY COUNTY JANUARY 2018 TO DECEMBER 2020 79
CHART 45: SCOTLAND, % OF SELF-BUILD SCHEMES WITH DETAIL PLANNING APPROVAL BY JOINT BOARD AREAS JANUARY 2018 TO DECEMBER 2020 80
CHART 46: SCOTLAND, % OF NUMBER OF SELF-BUILD OPPORTUNITIES BY JOINT BOARD AREA JANUARY 2021 81
CHART 47: WALES, % OF SELF-BUILD SCHEMES IN ACHIEVING DETAIL PLANNING APPROVAL BY PRESERVED COUNTY AREAS JANUARY 2018 TO DECEMBER 2020 82
CHART 48: WALES, % OF NUMBER OF SELF-BUILD OPPORTUNITIES BY PRESERVED COUNTY JANUARY 2021 82
6.3.3 NORTHERN IRELAND 83
CHART 49: NORTHERN IRELAND, % OF NUMBER OF SELF-BUILD OPPORTUNITIES BY COUNTY JANUARY 2021 83
CHART 50: KEY DISTRIBUTION CHANNELS IN THE SELF-BUILD MARKET 85
CHART 51: SELF-BUILD MARKET KEY DISTRIBUTION CHANNELS FOR MATERIALS % SHARE BY CHANNEL 2019-20 86
CHART 52: LEADING MERCHANTS MARKET SHARES 2019 88
CHART 53: ELECTRICAL WHOLESALE MARKET SHARES BY VALUE 2019 90
CHART 54: DIY/HOME IMPROVEMENT MULTIPLES MARKET SHARE 2019 91
CHART A1: GVA CHAINED VOLUME MEASURES, 2015-2020, KEY CONSTITUENT ELEMENTS 95
CHART A2: CPI INFLATION AND BANK OF ENGLAND BASE RATE, 2008-2023 96
CHART A3: AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS DATA – GB – TOTAL PAY – 2014-2019 (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 97
CHART A4: DI PER CAPITA & SAVINGS RATIO AT CURRENT PRICES 2008-2023 97
CHART A5: EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONS 2015-2019, STERLING TO THE DOLLAR AND THE EURO, SPOT RATES 98

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