Build to Rent Market Report – UK 2020-2024

The number of households in the private rented sector (PRS) has increased rapidly over the past decade, partly reflecting affordability barriers to home ownership. Since the early 2000s, the PRS has been one of the fastest growing sub-sectors of the property market. Since 2012/13, it has overtaken social housing to become the second largest tenure after home ownership, peaking at 5.4 million households across Great Britain in 2016. Growth in the PRS had coincided with a decline in other tenures including social rent and owner-occupier. However, between 2014-2018 home-ownership levels had increased falling sharply from 17.8m to 16.5m in 2019.

CONTENTS

RESEARCH SERVICES OFFERED BY AMA RESEARCH 3
1. INTRODUCTION 8
1.1 BACKGROUND 8
1.2 SOURCES OF INFORMATION 9
1.3 ACRONYMS FREQUENTLY USED IN THE REPORT 10
2. SUMMARY 11
3. PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL RENTAL MARKET OVERVIEW 14
3.1 INTRODUCTION AND DEFINITION 14
3.2 OVERALL SIZE OF UK PRS SECTOR 14
3.2.1 Recent Trends 14
3.3. PRS STOCK 15
3.3.1 By Age of Dwellings 15
3.3.2 By Type of Dwelling 16
3.3.3 Locations of PRS Dwellings 17
3.4 DEMOGRAPHICS 18
3.4.1 Age of PRS Households 18
3.4.2 PRS Household Size 20
3.4.3 Household Incomes 21
3.5 REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF PRIVATE RENTAL HOUSEHOLDS 22
3.6 OWNERSHIP OF PRIVATE RENTED HOUSING 24
4 MARKET SIZE, TRENDS AND DRIVERS 26
4.1 DEFINITION 26
4.2 MARKET SIZE, RECENT TRENDS AND FORECASTS 26
4.3 KEY MARKET FACTORS 30
4.3.1 Housing Affordability 30
4.3.2 Reduction in Grants for Social Housing and the Decline in Newbuild Completions 33
4.2.3 Growth in Institutional Investment 35
4.2.4 Impact of Property Taxation on Private Landlords 36
4.2.5 Planning Issues 38
5. REGIONAL VIEW 41
5.1 OVERVIEW 41
5.2 GREATER LONDON 41
5.3 REGIONAL OVERVIEW 47
5.4 GREATER MANCHESTER 49
5.4.1 Cities of Manchester and Salford 49
5.4.2 Other Greater Manchester 51
5.5 THE MIDLANDS 51
5.5.1 Birmingham 51
5.5.2 Other Midlands 53
5.6 LIVERPOOL AND MERSEYSIDE 53
5.7 YORKSHIRE AND THE NORTH EAST 55
5.7.1 Leeds 55
5.7.2 Sheffield 56
5.7.3 Rest of Yorkshire 57
5.7.4 Newcastle and Tyneside 57
5.8 REST OF ENGLAND AND WALES 57
5.8.1 Bristol and Bath 57
5.8.2 South Hampshire Metropolitan Area 58
5.9 SCOTLAND AND WALES 59
5.9.1 Glasgow 59
5.9.2 Edinburgh Region 60
5.9.3 Cardiff 60
6. BTR/PRS INVESTORS AND DEVELOPERS 61
6.1 LEADING INSTITUTIONAL INVESTMENT – PASSIVE INVESTORS 61
6.1.1 Overview 61
6.1.2 Leading Real Estate Asset/Fund Managers 62
6.2 BTR/PRS INVESTOR-DEVELOPERS (OPERATORS) 68
6.2.1 Overview 68
6.2.2 Larger Investor-Developers (Operators) 69
APPENDICES 82
APPENDIX A: ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT 82
A.1 OVERVIEW AND OUTLOOK 82
A.2 GDP 82
A.3 INFLATION AND INTEREST RATES 84
A.4 EMPLOYMENT AND WAGES 85
A.5 HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION 86
A.6 STERLING 87

TABLES AND CHARTS

CHART 1: CUMULATIVE BUILD TO RENT COMPLETIONS 2016 TO 2020 WITH FORECASTS FOR 2021 TO 2024 – NUMBER OF UNITS 11
CHART 2: GB DWELLING STOCK BY TENURE 2013 TO 2019 – BY NUMBER OF DWELLINGS AT 30 APRIL EACH YEAR 15
CHART 3: ENGLAND PRIVATE RENTAL DWELLINGS 2008 TO 2018 – BY AGE OF DWELLING 16
CHART 4: ENGLAND PRIVATE RENTAL BY TYPE OF DWELLING 2008 TO 2018 – NUMBER (000’S OF DWELLINGS) 17
CHART 5: ENGLAND PRIVATE RENTAL BY LOCATION OF DWELLING 2008 TO 2018 – NUMBER OF DWELLINGS (000’S) 18
CHART 6: PERCENTAGES OF AGE GROUPS (AGES OF HRPS*) LIVING IN PRIVATE RENTAL HOMES 2010-11 TO 2018-19 19
CHART 7: MIX OF AGES OF HRPS LIVING IN PRIVATELY RENTED HOUSING 2010-11 TO 2018-19 20
CHART 8: PRIVATE RENTAL HOUSING BY SIZE OF HOUSEHOLD 2010-11 TO 2018-19 – NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS 21
CHART 9: GROSS ANNUAL INCOME RANGE OF HRP & SPOUSE/PARTNER (ENGLAND) 2010/11 TO 2018/19 – BY NUMBER OF PRS HOUSEHOLDS 22
CHART 10: ENGLAND REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF PRIVATE RENTAL HOUSEHOLDS 2010/11 TO 2018/19 – NUMBER (000’S) 23
CHART 11: ENGLAND REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF PRIVATE RENTAL HOUSEHOLDS 2010-11 TO 2018-19 – % OF ALL DWELLINGS 24
CHART 12: OWNERSHIP OF PRS STOCK IN ENGLAND 2018 – % OF TENANCIES BY NUMBER BY LANDLORD TYPE 25
CHART 13: BUILD TO RENT IN UK ANNUAL STARTS, COMPLETIONS AND CUMULATIVE COMPLETIONS 2017-2020 WITH FORECASTS FOR CUMULATIVE COMPLETIONS 2021-2024 28
CHART 14: ENGLAND – RATIOS OF MEDIAN HOUSE PRICES TO MEDIAN GROSS ANNUAL RESIDENCE-BASED EARNINGS BY REGION 2009 TO 2019 31
TABLE 15: PRIVATE RENTERS EXPECTATIONS OF BUYING A HOME 2018 – BY % OF EACH AGE GROUP 32
CHART 16: PRIVATE RENTERS REASONS FOR BEING UNABLE OR NOT WANTING TO BUY A HOME 2018/19 – % BY AGE GROUP 33
CHART 17: ENGLAND AFFORDABLE/SOCIAL HOUSING COMPLETIONS BY TENURE 2015-16 TO 2018-19 – NUMBER OF DWELLINGS BY TENURE 34
TABLE 18: BUILD TO RENT GROWTH IN LONDON AND KEY REGIONS AS AT Q4 2020 41
CHART 19: AVERAGE HOUSE PRICE TRENDS BY REGION MARCH 2015 TO MARCH 2020 42
CHART 20: MOST EXPENSIVE LONDON BOROUGHS TO LIVE BY RATIO OF MEDIAN HOUSE PRICE TO MEDIAN GROSS ANNUAL RESIDENCE-BASED EARNINGS 2010 TO 2019 43
CHART 21: LONDON PRS DWELLINGS BY NUMBER AND BY % OF TOTAL DWELLINGS APRIL 2013-14 TO 2019-20 44
TABLE 22: LONDON BOROUGHS 10-YEAR TARGETS FOR NET HOUSING COMPLETIONS 2019-20 TO 2029-29 45
CHART 23: BUILD TO RENT IN LONDON ANNUAL STARTS & COMPLETIONS AND CUMULATIVE COMPLETIONS 2016 TO 2020 WITH FORECASTS 2021TO2024 46
CHART 24: BUILD TO RENT IN THE REGIONS ANNUAL STARTS & COMPLETIONS AND CUMULATIVE COMPLETIONS 2015 TO 2020 WITH FORECASTS 2021 TO 2024 48
CHART A1: GVA CHAINED VOLUME MEASURES KEY CONSTITUENT ELEMENTS 2015-2020 84
CHART A2: CPI INFLATION AND BANK OF ENGLAND BASE RATE 2008-2023 85
CHART A3: AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS DATA (GB) TOTAL PAY – 2014 TO 2019 (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 86
CHART A4: DI PER CAPITA & SAVINGS RATIO AT CURRENT PRICES 2008 TO 2023 86
CHART A5: EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONS 2015 TO 2019, STERLING TO THE DOLLAR AND THE EURO SPOT RATES 88