Space Heating Market Report - UK 2022-2026 - AMA Research

Space Heating Market Report – UK 2022-2026

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The 7th edition of the Space Heating Market Report UK 2022-2026 focuses on market size and trends, regulatory developments, product mix, industry supply, distribution, and market prospects.

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With the UK Government target for carbon net zero emissions by 2050 and growing concerns about climate change, space heating products are increasingly designed to be energy efficient and produce lower carbon emissions.

Key Issues Covered in the Report

  • An assessment of the impact of Brexit, the pandemic and the cost-of-living crisis on the UK space heating market, including the ongoing supply chain issues, the high price of energy, soaring inflation and escalating production costs.
  • Review and market size estimate of the residential space heating which includes gas and electric fires, installed electric heating, solid fuel stoves and portable heaters.
  • Review and market sizes estimate of non-residential space heating which includes commercial heating systems (boilers, radiators, other heat emitters), stand-alone heaters (warm air, radiant) and commercial heating controls.
  • Assessment of key end-use applications with a focus on the sectors that offer the greatest potential for growth – new housebuilding, residential RMI, self-build housing, key non-residential applications, etc.
  • Overview of the leading UK space heating manufacturers including company profiles and financials. Supply chain review including market map, main distributors, and key channels.

Areas of Particular Interest

  • Changing legislation impacting market demand for space heating including Interim Part L 2021, 2025 Future Homes Standard, SAP 10.2, ErP 2022, EPBD etc.
  • The government 2050 target for carbon net zero emissions and the influence of increasing environmental legislation regarding energy efficiency.
  • The increasing focus on renewable technologies, particularly heat pumps, and the impact this has on market demand for compatible space heating solutions.
  • With the Government commitment to decarbonise the UK’s electricity supply by 2035, electric space heating is becoming an increasingly low carbon form of heating, meeting SAP10 criteria in certain residential applications.
  • Growing use of smart heating technologies, to manage energy efficiency and support preventative maintenance measures in many commercial applications.

Some of the Companies listed within the report:

ACR Heat Products, ACV UK , AEL Heating Solutions Ltd, Babcock Wanson, Banico Controls, Barbas Bellfires, Baxi Heating UK, Bosch Thermotechnology Ltd, Burley Appliances, Byworth Boilers, Caledonian Control Technology,
CFB Boilers, Dyson, Ecostrad, ELCO Heating Solutions, Electric Radiators Direct, Fischer Future Heat, Flamerite Fires, Focal Point Fires Plc, Glen Dimplex Heating & Ventilation, Hamworthy Heating, Haverland UK, Heat Electric, Herschel Infrared, Purmo Group, Siemens Plc, Technotherm, Terma, TFC Group, Vaillant, Wavin, Wolseley

Key areas covered in the Report

Market Overview

  • Market size by value 2017 to 2022, rates of change.
  • Residential market overview including the general shift in demand for more aspirational products. With high fuel prices and soaring inflation, space heating is being used as an alternative and cost-effective home heating method.
  • Overview of non-residential space heating including the increasing focus on improving thermal performance, energy efficiency and more responsive, intelligent control.

Market Influences and Drivers

  • Main influences that drive the space heating industry including detailed PESTLE analysis.
  • Analysis including impact of Brexit, the pandemic, and cost-of-living crisis. Changes in UK Government leadership, policy, and standards. Economic forecasts and impact on confidence levels. Social factors including changes in consumer buying habits, demand for alternative types of heating, lifestyle factors and variations in population demographics.
  • Product innovations designed to meet more stringent energy efficiency legislation, also the development of connected smart technologies. Environmental influences including the uptake of renewables, particularly heat pumps, and their compatibility with many space heating systems.

End Use Sectors

  • Summary of sectors driving demand for space heating products, market split by sector.
  • Residential new build prospects and influences including housebuilding starts and completions, mix by type of dwelling, self-build market activity, affordable housing.
  • Residential RMI prospects and influences including growth in home improvements and level of house moving activity.
  • Non-residential output prospects and influences including construction activity, overall and by key end-use sectors.

Product Subsectors

  • Residential space heating – sector size by value 2017 to 2022. Market overview including trends and developments by product sector – electric & gas fires, installed electric heating, solid fuel stoves, portable heaters. End users, key players, leading company market shares and profiles.
  • Non-residential space heating – sector size by value 2017 to 2022. Market overview including trends and developments by product sector – commercial heating systems, stand-alone heaters, commercial heating controls. End users, key suppliers, leading company market shares and profiles.

 

Distribution

  • Review of distribution – market map, key channels, direct and indirect supply.
  • Company overview and financials of key distributors – merchants, electrical wholesalers, home improvement multiples, etc.

 

Market Forecasts

  • Ten-year UK space heating market view 2017 – 2021, plus forecasts to 2026, rates of change. Overall and by sector.
  • Summary of market prospects and influences – residential and non-residential space heating.
  • Key product innovations. Use of hydrogen.

With the UK Government target to achieve carbon net zero emissions by 2050 and growing concerns about climate change, both residential and non-residential space heating products are increasingly designed to be energy efficient and produce lower carbon emissions.

Residential space heating products are diverse and include electric and gas fires, installed electric heating systems such as storage heaters and fixed panel heaters, solid fuel stoves, also portable heaters such as fan heaters, convectors and oil filled radiators.

Non-residential space heating encompasses a wide variety of products including commercial and industrial boilers, commercial radiators, heat emitters including fan convectors, fab coil units and air curtains, stand-alone commercial heaters such as warm-air heaters and radiant heaters, also commercial heating controls.

In the residential space heating market sector, there has been a general shift in demand for more aspirational products, supporting value growth. With the high cost of fuel and soaring inflation, people are looking for alternative ways to heat their homes. Space heating is considered by many as an alternative and cost-effective home heating method.

With the UK target to decarbonise the country’s electricity supply by 2035, installed electric heating systems are increasingly used as a low carbon choice. For example, in small 1 or 2-bedroom new build apartments, electric fixed panel heaters can meet the requirements of SAP 10 and provide an energy efficient and low carbon heating method.

The market penetration of solid fuel stoves in UK homes has increased significantly in recent years, and notably in 2022, given the current high price of gas and electricity. In addition, with the trend towards homeworking, householders are increasingly using portable space heaters to heat their home office during the day.

In the non-residential space heating market sector, the focus is on improving thermal performance, energy efficiency and the use of more intelligent, responsive control. Smart technologies are increasingly used for managing energy efficiency, supporting preventative maintenance measures, also enabling remote diagnostics.

The growing use of renewable technologies such as heat pumps is likely to support demand for certain commercial heat emitters. For example, fan convectors and perimeter / trench heaters can work very effectively at low system temperatures, allowing a heat pump to work close to its maximum levels of efficiency.

With the cost-of-living crisis and the UK economy entering a recessionary period from October 2022, we forecast that the overall UK space heating market is likely show some decline in 2023, with a more positive outlook from 2024 to the end of the forecast period.

CONTENTS

1. INTRODUCTION 7
1.1 CONTEXT 7
1.2 SOURCES OF INFORMATION 7
1.3 DEFINITIONS 8
1.3.1 Residential space heating 8
1.3.2 Non-residential space heating 9
1.4 ABBREVIATIONS 9
2. MARKET SUMMARY 11
2.1 MARKET SIZE 11
2.2 MARKET OVERVIEW 12
2.3 IMPORTS AND EXPORTS 14
3. MARKET INFLUENCES AND DRIVERS 17
3.1 MAIN MARKET INFLUENCES AND DRIVERS 17
3.2 POLITICAL INFLUENCES AND DRIVERS 17
3.3 ECONOMIC INFLUENCES AND DRIVERS 19
3.4 SOCIAL INFLUENCES AND DRIVERS 21
3.5 TECHNOLOGICAL INFLUENCES AND DRIVERS 24
3.6 LEGAL INFLUENCES AND DRIVERS 25
3.7 ENVIRONMENTAL INFLUENCES AND DRIVERS 25
4. END USE SECTORS 28
4.1 SUMMARY OF THE SECTORS DRIVING DEMAND FOR THIS PRODUCT 28
4.2 RESIDENTIAL SECTOR PROSPECTS AND INFLUENCES 29
4.2.1 Residential new build activity 29
4.2.2 Residential RMI activity 34
4.3 NON-RESIDENTIAL SECTOR PROSPECTS AND INFLUENCES 36
5. MARKET SUB SECTORS 39
5.1 RESIDENTIAL SPACE HEATING – MARKET SIZE (VALUE) 39
5.1.1 Residential space heating – market summary 39
5.1.2 Residential space heating – product mix 40
5.1.3 Residential space heating – mix by source of fuel 41
5.1.4 Installed electric heating 41
5.1.5 Gas and electric fires 45
5.1.6 Portable space heating 50
5.1.7 Solid fuel stoves and fires 52
5.1.8 Residential space heating – end users 53
5.1.9 Residential space heating – suppliers / key players 54
5.1.10 Residential space heating – company market shares and profiles 54
5.2 NON-RESIDENTIAL SPACE HEATING – MARKET SIZE (VALUE) 65
5.2.1 Non-residential space heating – market summary 65
5.2.2 Non-residential space heating – product mix 66
5.2.3 Non-residential space heating – mix by type of installation 68
5.2.4 Commercial heating systems (boilers, radiators, heat emitters) 68
5.2.5 Stand-alone heaters (warm air heaters, radiant heaters) 73
5.2.6 Commercial heating controls 75
5.2.7 Non-residential space heating – end users 76
5.2.8 Non-residential space heating – suppliers / key players 77
5.2.9 Non-residential space heating – company market shares and profiles 77
6. DISTRIBUTION 94
6.1 MARKET STRUCTURE 94
6.2 CHANNEL SHARES BY SUPPLIER 95
6.2.1 Residential 95
6.2.2 Non-residential 96
6.3 KEY COMPANY PROFILES 98
6.3.1 Merchants 98
6.3.2 Electrical wholesalers 99
6.3.3 Home improvement multiples 101
6.3.4 Online retailers 102
7. MARKET FORECASTS 103
7.1 TEN-YEAR MARKET VIEW (FIVE YEARS BACK, FIVE YEARS FORWARD) 103
7.1.1 Residential space heating – forecast 103
7.1.2 Non-residential space heating – forecast 104
7.2 RESIDENTIAL SPACE HEATING – PROSPECTS AND INFLUENCES 105
7.3 NON-RESIDENTIAL SPACE HEATING – PROSPECTS AND INFLUENCES 107
8. INNOVATION 109
8.1 NEW PRODUCT INNOVATIONS – RESIDENTIAL SPACE HEATING 109
8.2 NEW PRODUCT INNOVATIONS – NON-RESIDENTIAL SPACE HEATING 110
8.3 USE OF HYDROGEN 112
APPENDICES 113
APPENDIX A: ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT 113
A.1 OVERVIEW AND OUTLOOK 113
A.2 GDP 113
A.3 INFLATION & INTEREST RATES 115
A.4 EMPLOYMENT & WAGES 116
A.5 HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION 117
A.6 STERLING 118
A.7 TRADE & BUSINESS INVESTMENT 118
RESEARCH SERVICES OFFERED BY AMA RESEARCH 120

 

TABLES & CHARTS

CHART 1: UK SPACE HEATING MARKET BY VALUE (£M MSP) 2017 – 2022 11
TABLE 2: IMPORTS AND EXPORTS OF ELECTRIC STORAGE HEATING RADIATORS 2019, 2020, 2021 (£M) 15
TABLE 3: IMPORTS AND EXPORTS OF OTHER ELECTRIC SPACE HEATING 2019, 2020, 2021 (£M) 15
TABLE 4: IMPORTS AND EXPORTS OF SOLID FUEL STOVES 2019, 2020, 2021 (£M) 16
TABLE 5: IMPORTS AND EXPORTS OF GAS STOVES 2019, 2020, 2021 (£M) 16
TABLE 6: UK SPACE HEATING MARKET PESTLE SUMMARY 2022 17
TABLE 7: KEY ECONOMIC VARIABLES 2020 – 2024 20
TABLE 8: UK UNDERFLOOR HEATING MARKET BY VALUE (£M MSP) 2017-2021 22
CHART 9: MAIN SPACE HEATING SYSTEM BY TENURE IN ENGLAND 2021 (% BY VOLUME) 23
CHART 10: UK SPACE HEATING MARKET MIX BY END-USE APPLICATION 2021 (% BY VALUE) 28
TABLE 11: RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION OUTPUT BY VALUE (£ BILLION AT CURRENT PRICES) 2017 – 2024 29
TABLE 12: GB RESIDENTIAL STARTS AND COMPLETIONS (ENGLAND, WALES, AND SCOTLAND) (000’S) 2017 – 2024 30
CHART 13: NEW BUILD COMPLETIONS MIX BY TYPE OF DWELLING 2007 – 2021 31
TABLE 14: UK SELF-BUILD MARKET BY NO. OF COMPLETIONS 2017-2021 33
TABLE 15: UK RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY TRANSACTIONS VALUED AT £40K OR ABOVE 2018-2022 36
CHART 16: NON-RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION OUTPUT NEW WORK & RMI BY VALUE 2017 – 2024 (£BN AT CURRENT PRICES) 37
CHART 17: NON-RESIDENTIAL NEW CONSTRUCTION OUTPUT ANALYSIS BY SECTOR 2021 AND 2024 (% BY VALUE) 38
CHART 18: RESIDENTIAL SPACE HEATING MARKET BY VALUE (£M MSP) 2017 – 2022 39
CHART 19: RESIDENTIAL SPACE HEATING MARKET MIX BY PRODUCT TYPE 2021 (% BY VALUE) 40
TABLE 20: UK RESIDENTIAL SPACE HEATING MARKET BY PRODUCT CATEGORY 2021 (£M MSP) 41
CHART 21: RESIDENTIAL SPACE HEATING MARKET MIX BY SOURCE OF FUEL 2021 (% BY VALUE) 41
CHART 22: GAS AND ELECTRIC FIRES % MARKET MIX 2001 AND 2021 (% BY VOLUME) 46
TABLE 23: FEATURES AND BENEFITS OF ELECTRIC FIRES 47
TABLE 24: FEATURES AND BENEFITS OF GAS FIRES 48
TABLE 25: RESIDENTIAL SPACE HEATING SUPPLIERS MARKET SHARES 2021 (% BY VALUE) 55
TABLE 26: GLEN DIMPLEX UK LTD 56
TABLE 27: STOVAX LTD 57
TABLE 28: GAZCO LTD 57
TABLE 29: AJ WELLS LTD 58
TABLE 30: BFM EUROPE LTD 58
TABLE 31: BE MODERN LTD 59
TABLE 32: CHARLTON & JENRICK LTD 59
TABLE 33: ELNUR LTD 60
TABLE 34: FOCAL POINT FIRES LTD 60
TABLE 35: FISCHER FUTURE HEAT LTD 61
CHART 36: NON-RESIDENTIAL SPACE HEATING MARKET BY VALUE (£M MSP) 2017 – 2022 65
CHART 37: NON-RESIDENTIAL SPACE HEATING MARKET MIX BY PRODUCT TYPE 2021 (% BY VALUE) 67
TABLE 38: UK NON-RESIDENTIAL SPACE HEATING MARKET BY PRODUCT CATEGORY 2021 (£M MSP) 67
CHART 39: UK NON-RESIDENTIAL SPACE HEATING MARKET MIX BY TYPE OF INSTALLATION 2021 (% BY VALUE) 68
TABLE 40: COMMERCIAL & INDUSTRIAL BOILERS MARKET SHARES 2021 (% BY VALUE) 78
TABLE 41: COMMERCIAL RADIATORS MARKET SHARES 2021 (% BY VALUE) 78
TABLE 42: HEAT EMITTERS MARKET SHARES 2021 (% BY VALUE) 79
TABLE 43: STAND-ALONE HEATERS MARKET SHARES 2021 (% BY VALUE) 79
TABLE 44: IDEAL BOILERS LTD 80
TABLE 45: HEATING PRODUCTS LTD 81
TABLE 46: BAXI HEATING UK LTD 82
TABLE 47: BOSCH THERMOTECHNOLOGY LTD 83
TABLE 48: COCHRAN LTD 83
TABLE 49: STELRAD LTD 85
TABLE 50: PURMO GROUP UK LTD 86
TABLE 51: ZEHNDER GROUP UK LTD 87
TABLE 52: KUDOX LTD 87
TABLE 53: DUNHAM-BUSH LTD 88
TABLE 54: S & P COIL PRODUCTS LTD 89
TABLE 55: THERMOSCREENS LTD 89
TABLE 56: NORTEK GLOBAL HVAC (UK) LTD 91
TABLE 57: POWRMATIC LTD 92
CHART 58: DISTRIBUTION STRUCTURE FOR SPACE HEATING PRODUCTS 94
CHART 59: RESIDENTIAL SPACE HEATING PRODUCTS DISTRIBUTION BY CHANNEL 2021 (% BY VALUE) 95
CHART 60: NON-RESIDENTIAL SPACE HEATING PRODUCTS DISTRIBUTION BY CHANNEL 2021 (% BY VALUE) 96
CHART 61: NON-RESIDENTIAL SPACE HEATING DISTRIBUTION BY APPLICATION TYPE 2021 (% BY VALUE) 97
TABLE 62: TRAVIS PERKINS LTD 98
TABLE 63: WOLSELEY UK LTD 99
TABLE 64: EDMUNDSON ELECTRICAL LTD 100
TABLE 65: CITY ELECTRICAL FACTORS LTD (CEF) 100
TABLE 66: REXEL UK LTD 101
TABLE 67: B & Q LTD 102
TABLE 68: UK SPACE HEATING MARKET BY VALUE (£M MSP) 2017-2026 103
TABLE 69: UK RESIDENTIAL SPACE HEATING MARKET BY VALUE (£M MSP) 2017-2026 104
TABLE 70: UK NON-RESIDENTIAL SPACE HEATING MARKET BY VALUE (£M MSP) 2017-2026 104
CHART A1: GROSS VALUE ADDED BY SECTOR 114
CHART A2: CPI INFLATION AND BANK OF ENGLAND BASE RATE 115
CHART A3: AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS BY SECTOR 116
CHART A4: DISPOSABLE INCOME PER CAPITA & SAVINGS RATIO 117
CHART A5: STERLING EXCHANGE RATES TO THE DOLLAR AND THE EURO 118
CHART A6: TRADE & BUSINESS INVESTMENT, 2018-2020 118

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