Utility Scale Solar Farms Market Report UK 2022-2026 - AMA Research

Utility Scale Solar Farms Market Report UK 2022-2026

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The first in a new series of reports on renewable energy which will also include one on commercial & industrial roof-top solar. It provides an analysis of the development pipeline, key stakeholders (owners, investors and developers) and the key drivers.

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This is AMA Research’s first issue of the Utility-scale Solar Farms Market report, 2022 -2026 and the first in a new series of reports on renewable energy which will also include one on commercial & industrial roof-top solar. It provides an analysis of the development pipeline, key stakeholders (owners, investors and developers) and the key drivers.

With the UK now legally committed to reaching Net Zero carbon emissions by 2050, much of the focus of efforts will be on ramping up solar power capacity. To meet the target, this is not wholly achievable relying solely on roof-top installations. Key to solar power’s contribution is the expanding deployment of utility-scale solar farms of 5MWp and above.

Key Issues Covered in the Report

  • Cumulative utility-scale solar power deployment 2011-2021, under subsidy programmes and at the start of the post-subsidy era.
  • PESTLE analysis of key issues driving the deployment of post-subsidy, utility-scale solar farms- revisions to national policy statements for infrastructure; launch of UK infrastructure bank; growth in institutional investment and power purchase agreements; new funding for upgrading electricity distribution network; co-location of solar farms and battery storage; ongoing efforts to improve solar panel conversion rates; land availability and the planning system. Decreasing costs of solar panels.
  • Construction context – review of how solar power fits in with the UK energy generation mix; trends in solar farm capacity mix and the increasing size of installations

Areas of Particular Interest

  • Stakeholder analysis – owners, investors and developers, with a particular focus on developers, highlighting joint ventures and recent market entrants.
  • Review of forecast pipeline by capacity; what is ‘shovel ready’ for 2022, what is currently in the planning process and awaiting approval; what has been proposed / is in early stages of development.
  • Review of 50+ developers with largest pipelines, identifying what these comprise; project name, capacity, location and status as of February 2022.

KEY AREAS COVERED IN THE REPORT

Market summary

  • Cumulative deployment of 5MWp+ capacity 2011 to 2021
  • Review of deployment under subsidy schemes including highlighting largest projects built.
  • Review of post-subsidy deployment since 2018, identification of major projects.

Market influences and drivers

  • PESTLE analysis-
    • government’s climate change policy;
    • revisions to energy National Policy Statements for infrastructure;
    • Launch of the UK Infrastructure Bank;
    • solar power’s recent re-eligibility for Contracts for Difference;
    • Growth in institutional investment in renewable energy;
    • growth in private purchase agreements (PPAs);
    • falling costs of solar PV systems;
    • increased funding for upgrading the electricity distribution network;
    • connectivity to DNO networks;
    • co-location of solar farms with BESS;
    • improvements in conversion efficiency of silicon solar cells and larger module formats;
    • irradiance levels across the UK;
    • land availability and the planning system.

Construction context

  • Overview of electricity generation within the UK.
  • Trends in utility- scale solar farms deployment within context of total solar power capacity 2011 -2021
  • Trends within utility-scale solar farms by broad capacity ranges, 5<=25MWp vs 25MWp+, 2011-2021.

Regional analysis

  • Regional deployment of total utility-scale solar farm capacity under the Renewables Obligation and the Feed-in-Tariff.
  • Prospective regional deployment of post-subsidy utility-scale solar farms (under construction, approved, awaiting planning decisions and at early-stage development) from 2021 onwards.

Forecasts

  • Review of anticipated trends and an overall pipeline mix between capacity to be built in 2022, project capacity awaiting planning decisions and capacity in early stages of development.
  • Table of 32 projects of 40MWp+ identified to start in 2022; size, location and developers
  • Mix of projects in the 40GWp pipeline by capacity ranges. Tables of all large-scale projects for England and Wales requiring government consent.

Stakeholders review

  • Leading owners of solar farms in the UK, number of sites and total capacity under ownership.
  • Growth in partnerships/joint ventures to deliver large-scale deployment, with comprehensive list of member partners and targeted capacities.
  • Developers overview – listed market entrants since 2018; listed leading developers by size of development pipelines (number and capacity).
  • Company profiles of 55 leading companies in investment, development, construction and management of solar farms. These include: Greencoat group, Octopus group, Foresight group, Bluefield group, Lightsource BP, Enso Energy, Elgin Es Co, Anesco, Low Carbon, EDF Renewables, NextEnergy group, Scottish Power Renewables, Hive Energy group

CONTENTS

1. INTRODUCTION 7
1.1 CONTEXT 7
1.2 DEFINITIONS 8
1.3 FREQUENTLY USED ABBREVIATIONS IN THE REPORT 8
1.4 METHODOLOGY 9
2. MARKET SUMMARY 10
2.1 OVERVIEW 10
2.2. SUBSIDISED SOLAR FARM DEVELOPMENT 10
2.3. BEGINNINGS OF THE POST-SUBSIDY ERA 12
3. MARKET INFLUENCES AND DRIVERS 15
3.1 MAIN MARKET INFLUENCES AND DRIVERS 15
3.2 POLITICAL 15
3.2.1 Overarching climate change policy 15
3.2.2 Revisions to energy National Policy Statements for infrastructure 17
3.3 ECONOMIC INFLUENCES AND DRIVERS 18
3.3.1 Launch of the UK Infrastructure Bank 18
3.3.2 Contracts for Difference 19
3.3.3 Growth in institutional investment in renewable energy 19
3.3.4 Power purchase agreements (PPAs) 21
3.3.5 Falling costs of solar PV systems 23
3.3.6 Increased funding for upgrading the electricity distribution network 23
3.4 SOCIAL INFLUENCES AND DRIVERS 24
3.5 TECHNOLOGY FACTORS 25
3.5.1 Connectivity to DNO networks 25
3.5.2 Co-location of solar farms with BESS 26
3.5.3 Improvements in conversion efficiency of c-Si solar cells and larger module formats 27
3.5.4 Other commercially available cell materials and R & D into new alternatives 31
3.6 LEGAL INFLUENCES AND DRIVERS 32
3.7 ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS 33
3.7.1 Irradiance levels across the UK 33
3.7.2 Land availability and the planning system 35
4. CONSTRUCTION CONTEXT 37
4.1 OVERVIEW OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION WITHIN THE UK 37
4.2. UTILITY SCALE SOLAR FARMS WITHIN CONTEXT 38
4.2.1 Within the context of total solar power capacity 38
4.2.2 Utility-scale solar farms, trends in the capacity mix 2012-2021 39
5. REGIONAL ANALYSIS 41
6. STAKEHOLDER REVIEW 43
6.1 SOLAR FARM OWNERSHIP 43
6.2 PARTNERSHIPS / JOINT VENTURES 43
6.3 DEVELOPMENT 44
6.3.1 Definition 44
6.3.2 Recent market entrants 46
6.3.3 Leading developers 48
6.4 Company profiles 50
7. MARKET FORECASTS 99
7.1 OVERVIEW 99
7.2 SOLAR PROJECTS REQUIRING GOVERNMENT APPROVAL 102
7.2.1 England 102
7.2.2 Wales 103
7.2.3 Scotland 104
APPENDICES 105
APPENDIX A: ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT 105
A.1 OVERVIEW AND OUTLOOK 105
A.2 GDP 105
A.3 INFLATION & INTEREST RATES 107
A.4 EMPLOYMENT & WAGES 108
A.5 HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION 109
A.6 STERLING 110
A.7 TRADE & BUSINESS INVESTMENT 111
RESEARCH SERVICES OFFERED BY AMA RESEARCH 112

TABLES & CHARTS

TABLE 1: UK DEPLOYMENT OF UTILITY-SCALE SOLAR FARMS (CUMULATIVE 5 MWP+ CAPACITY) 2011-2021. 10
CHART 2: UK ANNUAL DEPLOYMENT OF GROUND-MOUNT SOLAR PV INSTALLATIONS UNDER THE RENEWABLES OBLIGATION AND FEED IN TARIFF BY SITE CAPACITY RANGES 2013-2019 11
TABLE 3: LARGEST SOLAR FARMS BUILT UNDER THE RENEWABLES OBLIGATION SCHEME 12
TABLE 4: MAJOR POST-SUBSIDY SOLAR FARM PROJECTS COMPLETED AT OR UNDER CONSTRUCTION AS OF FEBRUARY 2022 13
TABLE 5: UK MARKET PESTLE SUMMARY 2021 15
TABLE 6: LARGEST SOLAR POWER TRUSTS/FUNDS AND THE INVESTMENT MANAGERS 2022 20
CHART 7: MIX BETWEEN SOLAR FARMS PROPOSED UNDER THE RENEWABLES OBLIGATION AND FEED-IN-TARIFF, IN OPERATION, REFUSED AND ABANDONED/WITHDRAWN 24
CHART 8: LONG-TERM AVERAGE PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER POTENTIAL (PVOUT) ACROSS THE UK 1994-2018 34
CHART 9: UK ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY SOURCE 2020 37
CHART 10: UK ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY SOURCE: 2016-2020 38
CHART 11: SOLAR PV -CUMULATIVE INSTALLED CAPACITY FOR 5MWP+ SOLAR FARMS AND OTHER INSTALLATIONS (MWP) 2011-2021 39
CHART 12: UTILITY-SCALE SOLAR PV -CUMULATIVE INSTALLED CAPACITY (MWP) 2011-2021 40
CHART 13: REGIONAL DEPLOYMENT OF UTILITY-SCALE SOLAR FARMS UNDER THE RENEWABLES OBLIGATION AND THE FEED-IN-TARIFF 41
CHART 14: PROSPECTIVE REGIONAL DEPLOYMENT OF POST-SUBSIDY UTILITY-SCALE SOLAR FARMS (UNDER CONSTRUCTION, APPROVED, AWAITING PLANNING DECISIONS AND AT EARLY-STAGE DEVELOPMENT) FROM 2021 ONWARDS 42
TABLE 15: LEADING OWNERS OF SOLAR FARMS IN THE UK 43
TABLE 16: JOINT VENTURES IN THE UK POST-SUBSIDY SOLAR FARM MARKET 2019 -2025 44
TABLE 17: RECENT ENTRANTS INTO THE POST-SUBSIDY SOLAR FARM SECTOR 2018 -TO DATE 47
TABLE 18: LEADING DEVELOPERS OF UTILITY-SCALE SOLAR FARMS BY SIZE OF DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE 48
TABLE 19: AGR GROUP LTD 50
TABLE 20: AMPYR SOLAR EUROPE 51
TABLE 21: ANESCO LTD 52
TABLE 22: ARMSTRONG CAPITAL MANAGEMENT AND RENEWABLE CONNECTIONS DEVELOPMENTS 53
TABLE 23: AURA POWER SOLAR UK LTD 54
TABLE 24: BAYWA R.E.UK LTD 55
TABLE 25: BLUEFIELD GROUP LTD 56
TABLE 26: BNRG RENEWABLES LTD 57
TABLE 27: BOOM POWER LTD 58
TABLE 28: BRITISH SOLAR RENEWABLES LTD 59
TABLE 29: CANADIAN SOLAR UK LTD 60
TABLE 30: CENTRICA ENERGY ASSETS 60
TABLE 31: CUBICO SUSTAINABLE INVESTMENTS LTD 61
TABLE 32: EDF ENERGY RENEWABLES LTD 62
TABLE 33: EDEN RENEWABLES 63
TABLE 34: ELGIN ENERGY ES CO LTD 64
TABLE 35: ENSO ENERGY ES CO LTD & CERO INTERNATIONAL PARTNERSHIP 65
TABLE 36: FORESIGHT GROUP LLP 67
TABLE 37: GREENCOAT SOLAR 68
TABLE 38: GREEN ENERGY INTERNATIONAL 69
TABLE 39: EVOLUTION POWER LTD 69
TABLE 40: HARMONY ENERGY LTD 70
TABLE 41: GRIDSERVE SUSTAINABLE ENERGY LTD 71
TABLE 42: GRIDSOURCE LTD 71
TABLE 43: HIVE ENERGY LTD AND ETHICAL POWER LTD 72
TABLE 44: INFINIS SOLAR DEVELOPMENTS LTD 73
TABLE 45: INNOVA RENEWABLES LTD 74
TABLE 46: INFRALAND LTD 74
TABLE 47: INTELLIGENT ALTERNATIVES LTD 75
TABLE 48: ISLAND GREEN POWER UK LTD 76
TABLE 49: JBM SOLAR PROJECTS (UK) LTD 77
TABLE 50: KRONOS SOLAR UK 78
TABLE 51: LIGHTROCK SOLAR POWER LTD 78
TABLE 52: LIGHTSOURCE BP RENEWABLE ENERGY INVESTMENTS LTD 79
TABLE 53: LOW CARBON GROUP LTD 80
TABLE 54: NAMENE SOLAR AND STEAG SOLAR ENERGY SOLUTIONS PARTNERSHIP 81
TABLE 55: NEXTENERGY CAPITAL GROUP 82
TABLE 56: NOVERGY LTD 83
TABLE 57: NOVUS RENEWABLE SERVICES LTD 84
TABLE 58: OCTOPUS CAPITAL LTD 85
TABLE 59: OPDENERGY UK 86
TABLE 60: PATHFINDER CLEAN ENERGY LTD 87
TABLE 61: PS RENEWABLES LTD 88
TABLE 62: QUEEQUEG RENEWABLES LTD 89
TABLE 63: RENEWABLE ENERGY SYSTEMS LTD 89
TABLE 64: RNA-ENERGY LTD 90
TABLE 65: SCOTTISH POWER RENEWABLES 91
TABLE 66: SOLAR 2 LTD 92
TABLE 67: SPRING CHE LTD 92
TABLE 68: SSE RENEWABLES LTD 93
TABLE 69: STARK ENERGY LTD 93
TABLE 70: STATKRAFT UK 94
TABLE 71: TOUCAN ENERGY HOLDINGS 95
TABLE 72: VOLTALIA UK 96
TABLE 73: WESSEX SOLAR ENERGY LTD 97
TABLE 74: WINDEL ENERGY LTD 98
CHART 75: 5 MWP+ SOLAR FARM PROJECTS BY STAGE IN THE 40 GWP PIPELINE AS OF FEBRUARY 2022 100
TABLE 76: MAJOR SOLAR FARMS OF 40 MWP+ CAPACITY WITH CONSENT PROBABLY TO GO ON SITE IN 2022 100
CHART 77: 5 MWP+ SOLAR FARM PROJECTS IN DEVELOPMENT (INSTALLED CAPACITY MWP) AS OF FEBRUARY 2022 102
TABLE 78: ENGLAND- SOLAR FARM PROJECTS DEFINED AS NSIPS 2022 103
TABLE 79: WALES PROPOSED SOLAR FARM PROJECTS DEFINED AS DEVELOPMENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE (DNS) 2022 103
TABLE 80: SCOTLAND PROPOSED SOLAR FARM PROJECTS DEFINED AS DEVELOPMENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE2022 104
CHART A1: GROSS VALUE ADDED BY SECTOR 107
CHART A2: CPI INFLATION AND BANK OF ENGLAND BASE RATE 108
CHART A3: AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS BY SECTOR 109
CHART A4: DISPOSABLE INCOME PER CAPITA & SAVINGS RATIO 110
CHART A5: STERLING EXCHANGE RATES TO THE DOLLAR AND THE EURO 110
CHART A6: TRADE & BUSINESS INVESTMENT, 2018-2020 111

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