Social Housing RMI Market Report – UK 2021-2025 - AMA Research

Social Housing RMI Market Report – UK 2021-2025

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This is the first stand-alone edition of the report on Social Housing RMI. It provides a survey of trends in contractors output 2016-2020, with forecasts 2021-2025; review of key growth drivers; review of RMI spending among housing associations and local authorities.

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This is the first stand-alone edition of the report on Social Housing RMI. It provides a survey of trends in contractors output 2016-2020, with forecasts 2021-2025; review of key growth drivers; review of RMI spending among housing associations and local authorities.

Key Issues Covered in the Report

  • Factors underpinning growth in RMI expenditure among social housing providers and contractors’ output:- increased spending on fire safety
  • Early stages of decarbonising social housing
  • Impact of Covid-19 on RMI activity
  • Impact of exiting EU on social housing funding
  • Impact of reversal of 1% cut on social housing rents
  • The Social Housing White Paper
  • Shortages in skilled trades and building materials
  • Local authorities ‘insourcing’ RMI services

Some of the Companies Featured in this Report:

Clarion, London & Quadrant, Sanctuary, Peabody, Wheatley, Notting Hill Genesis, Guinness Partnership, Places for People, Riverside, Anchor Hanover, Optivo, Sovereign, Metropolitan TV, Orbit Group, Home Group, Bromford, Hyde, Thirteen Group, Gentoo, Catalyst, Together Housing, Southern Housing, Aster Group, Platform Housing, Onward Homes, Flagship Group, Torus Group, Citizen Housing, LiveWest, Abri Group, Housing 21, Stonewater, A2Dominion

Areas of Particular Interest

  • Over view of social housing stock and breakdowns by demographic, region and tenure.
  • Review of RMI expenditure for the 30+ biggest spenders on RMI services among housing associations and the 20 biggest spenders on social housing RMI among local authorities.
  • Key procurement groups for social housing RMI; overview of leading external RMI contractors.

KEY AREAS COVERED IN THE REPORT

Market Overview

  • Quantification of trends in contractors social housing RMI output 2016-2015 at a GB level; market forecasts 2021-2025.
  • Review of key market factors:-
    • The Decent Homes Standard and the Social Housing White Paper; Fire and building safety legislation and implementation of fire safety measures; Decarbonising social housing;
    • Impact of the 1% rent cut and its reversal; Leaving the European Union; Accumulation of rent arrears during the pandemic; Shortages of construction trades and professionals;
    • Building materials shortages.

End Use Sector Review

  • Trends in overall RMI output among housing associations within England, Scotland and Wales 2014/15 to 2019/20
  • Trends in overall RMI output among local authorities within England, Scotland and Wales 2014/15 to 2019/20
  • Housing associations -trends by service type i.e. routine, planned etc;
  • Review of social housing providers across GB Identification of the 30+ biggest spenders among housing associations. Reviews of each and mix in RMI spending
  • Identification and review of the 20 biggest spenders on social housing among local authorities
  • External RMI contracting Review of procurement consortia and social housing RMI frameworks
  • Review of the largest private contractors active in the social housing RMI market e.g. Mears, Wates Living Space and Engie.

Over the period 2016-2020, year-on-year output declined, partly due to annual 1% reductions in rents brought about by the government in 2016, which lead to falls in rental income and RMI spending.

In late 2018, there was a return to growth, due to the implementation of vital fire safety remediation works in line with requirements by government following the 2017 Grenfell Tower fire disaster. This has included replacing combustible ACM insulated cladding panels on buildings of 18+ metres and implementing other fire safety measures.

RMI contractors’ output in 2020 fell due to the impact of the pandemic. While most social housing providers have been able to maintain essential responsive repair services, the provision of planned maintenance has been impacted. Capitalised RMI expenditure for the year was £1.6bn, against a £2.4bn forecast for the year as at January 2020. This was because of lockdown restrictions and social distancing measures, limiting the ability of workers to carry out planned

CONTENTS

RESEARCH SERVICES OFFERED BY AMA RESEARCH 3
1. INTRODUCTION 8
1.1 INTRODUCTION 8
1.2 SOURCES OF INFORMATION 8
1.3 GLOSSARY OF TERMS 9
2. SUMMARY 11
3. SOCIAL HOUSING IN THE UK 14
3.1 OVERARCHING ORGANISATIONS 14
3.1.1 England 14
3.1.2 Wales 14
3.1.3 Scotland 14
3.1.4 Northern Ireland 14
3.2 SOCIAL HOUSING PROVISION 15
3.2.1 UK overview 15
3.2.2 Social housing provision in England 16
3.2.3 Social housing provision in Scotland 22
3.2.4 Social housing provision in Wales 23
4.2.2 Stock profile 24
4. SOCIAL HOUSING RMI MARKET OVERVIEW 27
4.1 MARKET SIZE AND TRENDS 27
4.1.1 Recent developments 27
4.1.2 Market prospects 2021 to 2025 28
4.2 KEY MARKET INFLUENCING FACTORS 29
4.2.1 Socio-economic and demographic 29
4.2.2 The Decent Homes Standard and the Social Housing White Paper 30
4.2.3 Fire and building safety legislation and implementation of fire safety measures 31
4.2.4 Decarbonising social housing 32
4.2.5 Impact of the 1% rent cut and its reversal 35
4.2.6 Leaving the European Union 35
4.2.7 Accumulation of rent arrears during the Covid-19 pandemic 36
4.2.8 Shortages of construction trades and professionals 38
4.2.9 Building materials shortages 39
5. RMI TRENDS AMONG HOUSING ASSOCIATIONS AND LOCAL AUTHORITIES 40
5.1 INTRODUCTION 40
5.2 ENGLAND 40
5.2.1 Overview 40
5.2.2 Housing associations 41
5.3 Scotland 42
5.3.1 Overview 42
5.3.2. Housing associations 44
6. SOCIAL HOUSING PROVIDERS AND RMI SERVICES 45
6.1 OVERVIEW OF SOCIAL HOUSING RMI PROVISION 45
6.2 HOUSING ASSOCIATIONS 45
6.2 LOCAL AUTHORITIES 71
6.2.1 Overview 71
6.2.2 REVIEW OF LARGEST LOCAL AUTHORITIES WITH HOUSING STOCK 73
6.3 EXTERNAL RMI CONTRACTING 74
6.3.1 Procurement 74
6.3.3. Leading external contractors 76
APPENDICES 82
APPENDIX A: ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT 82
A.1 OVERVIEW AND OUTLOOK 82
A.2 GDP 82
A.3 INFLATION & INTEREST RATES 84
A.4 EMPLOYMENT & WAGES 85
A.5 HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION 86
A.6 STERLING 87

TABLES AND CHARTS

CHART 1: UK PUBLIC SECTOR HOUSING RMI CONTRACTORS OUTPUT 2016-2020 AND FORECASTS TO 2025 11
CHART 2: DWELLING STOCK BY COUNTRY AND TENURE BY NUMBERS OF UNITS AT 1 APRIL 2020 15
CHART 3: GB SOCIAL HOUSING STOCK – NUMBERS OF SELF-CONTAINED DWELLINGS BY TENURE 2010-2020 16
CHART 4: ENGLAND SOCIAL HOUSING STOCK – NUMBERS OF SELF-CONTAINED DWELLINGS BY TENURE AT MARCH 2012-2020 17
CHART 5: ENGLAND – PRP OWNED STOCK BY % TYPES OF TENURE (MILLION UNITS/BEDSPACES) 18
CHART 6: ENGLAND – REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF PRP OWNED HOUSING STOCK BY NUMBER OF DWELLINGS 19
CHART 7: ENGLAND – REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF LOCAL AUTHORITY HOUSING STOCK BY NUMBER OF DWELLINGS 21
CHART 8: SCOTLAND SOCIAL HOUSING STOCK – NUMBERS OF SELF-CONTAINED DWELLINGS BY TENURE AT MARCH 2014/15-2019/20 22
CHART 9: WALES SOCIAL HOUSING STOCK – NUMBERS OF SELF-CONTAINED DWELLINGS BY TENURE 2010/11-2019/20 24
CHART 10: ENGLAND – HOUSING ASSOCIATIONS AND LOCAL AUTHORITY DWELLINGS BY AGE 25
CHART 11: ENGLAND – HOUSING ASSOCIATIONS AND LOCAL AUTHORITY DWELLINGS BY TYPE 26
CHART 12: ENGLAND – HOUSING ASSOCIATIONS AND LOCAL AUTHORITY DWELLINGS BY TYPE OF LOCATION 26
CHART 13: UK PUBLIC SECTOR HOUSING RMI CONTRACTORS OUTPUT 2016-2020 AND FORECASTS TO 2025 28
TABLE 14: ENGLAND – HOUSEHOLD SIZE ESTIMATES BY ‘000S OF DWELLINGS 2014 – 2039 31
CHART 15: NUMBER OF NON-DECENT SOCIAL HOUSING DWELLINGS 2014-2019 32
CHART 16: ENERGY EFFICIENCY RATING BANDS FOR SOCIAL HOUSING 2009 AND 2019 35
CHART 17: FEDERATION OF MASTER BUILDERS STATE OF TRADE SURVEY Q1 2020 % OF RESPONDENTS REPORTING SKILLED TRADES IN SHORT SUPPLY 39
CHART 18: ENGLAND HOUSING ASSOCIATION AND LOCAL AUTHORITY EXPENDITURE ON RMI SERVICES 2014/15 – 2020/21 42
CHART 19: ENGLAND HOUSING ASSOCIATIONS RMI EXPENDITURE BY SERVICE TYPE 2014/15 -2019/20 43
CHART 20: SCOTLAND HOUSING ASSOCIATION AND LOCAL AUTHORITY ESTIMATED EXPENDITURE ON RMI SERVICES 2014/15 – 2019/20 44
CHART 21: SCOTLAND HOUSING ASSOCIATIONS RMI EXPENDITURE BY SERVICE TYPE 2014/15 -2019/20 45
TABLE 22: GB HOUSING ASSOCIATIONS – BIGGEST SPENDERS ON RMI (£50M+) 2019/2020 47
CHART 23: ENGLISH LOCAL HOUSING AUTHORITIES RMI EXPENDITURE BY TYPE 2019/20 73
TABLE 24: LARGEST SPENDERS ON HOUSING RMI AMONG UK LOCAL AUTHORITIES 2019/20 73
CHART A1: GVA CHAINED VOLUME MEASURES, 2015-2020, KEY CONSTITUENT ELEMENTS 84
CHART A2: CPI INFLATION AND BANK OF ENGLAND BASE RATE, 2008-2023 85
CHART A3: AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS DATA – GB – TOTAL PAY – 2014-2019 (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 86
CHART A4: DI PER CAPITA & SAVINGS RATIO AT CURRENT PRICES 2008-2023 87
CHART A5: EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONS 2015-2019, STERLING TO THE DOLLAR AND THE EURO, SPOT RATES 88

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