Residential Central Heating Market Report - UK 2023-2027 - AMA Research

Residential Central Heating Market Report – UK 2023-2027

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The 16th edition of the Residential Central Heating Market Report UK 2023-2027 offers insights into market size, growth prospects, key drivers, and competitive landscape, assisting industry stakeholders in making informed decisions.

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The 16th edition of the Residential Central Heating Market Report UK 2023-2027 provides an informed and up-to-date analysis of the market. The report offers insights into market size, growth prospects, key drivers, and competitive landscape, assisting industry stakeholders in making informed decisions.

Key Issues Covered in the Report

The report assesses the impact of the pandemic and economic challenges on the residential central heating industry. It highlights the focus on energy efficiency, including the UK’s carbon net zero target. The growth of smart heating solutions, style and design considerations, demographic influences, and the trend towards off-site solutions are also discussed.

Areas of Particular Interest

  • Impact of economic challenges: The effects of factors like inflation, Brexit, and the Ukraine war on the residential central heating market, including material costs, supply delays, and housing market demand.
  • Focus on energy efficiency and sustainability: The emphasis on energy-efficient heating solutions and the UK’s target of achieving carbon net zero by 2050, along with increasing environmental legislation related to water and energy efficiency.
  • Growth of smart heating solutions: The adoption of smart controls and heating technologies, offering enhanced convenience, energy management, and control options for homeowners.
  • Style and design trends: The growing importance of style and design in residential central heating solutions, considering aesthetics and their integration into the overall design of living spaces.
  • Demographic influences: The impact of the ageing UK population and the corresponding demand for inclusive heating solutions that cater to the needs of all individuals.
  • Off-site construction trend: The trend towards off-site solutions to expedite the construction process, reduce on-site labor costs, and influence the selection and installation of residential central heating systems.

Some Companies Featured In This Report

Worcester Bosch, Vaillant, Ideal and Baxi, Stelrad, Purmo, Zehnder, Kudox, Danfoss, Alpha Therm, Siemens, Drayton, British Gas (Hive) and Google (Nest),
Honeywell, Tado, Daikin, Viessmann, Nibe, Bosch, Vaillant, Grundfos, Wilo, Wavin UK, B&Q, Screwfix and more.

KEY AREAS COVERED IN THE REPORT

Market Summary

  • Market size by value 2023 to 2027, rates of change.
  • Market overview by product sector.
  • Imports and exports data.
  • Market splits including product mix by value.

Market Influences and Drivers

This section reviews the key influences upon the residential central heating market. Whilst legislative measures inevitably shape the type of products used, these also need to be affordable to enable their wider adoption. However, the recent cost-of-living crisis and sharp hike in energy prices, has also led households to consider alternative, longer-term ways of reducing their energy bills and has focused minds on the potential for different fuel sources for heating homes.

End Use Sectors

This section considers the key end use sectors which influence demand for residential central heating systems and includes housebuilding & RMI activity; housebuilding starts & completions; as well as heating types installed across different homes.

Product Sub-Sectors

Central heating is defined as heating from a central source.

Residential central heating systems include:

  • Wet Central Heating Systems – that use water as the medium to get heat from the central source (boiler) to the areas to be heated. The principal fuels that are used are gas (including LPG), oil, solid fuel, and electrical energy.
  • Dry Central Heating Systems – are operated centrally and use electric storage and warm air systems to heat areas of the home.

For the purposes of this report, the UK market for residential central heating systems concerns wet central heating systems and includes the following products:

  • Boilers
  • Circulators
  • Radiators
  • Heating Controls (smart and conventional)
  • Heat Pumps

It should be emphasised that installation costs, maintenance, spare parts, and aftermarket activities are excluded from our market definition, which focuses upon product sales.

Distribution

  • Review of distribution – map, key channels, developments.
  • Company overview and financials of key distributors.

Market Forecasts and Product Innovations

  • Ten-year UK Residential Central Heating market view 2018 – 2023, plus forecasts to 2027, rates of change.
  • Overview of market prospects.
  • Ten-year market view by product sub-sector to 2027 and rates of change.
  • Summary of market prospects.
  • New product innovation and Future Scenarios.

The residential central heating market in the UK is estimated to have significant value. It experienced a decline in 2020 but rebounded in 2021 due to increased building activity and consumer confidence. However, the market is currently facing economic challenges such as rising inflation, Brexit, and the impact of the Ukraine war. There has been a slowdown in housing market demand, but a strong focus on energy efficiency and funding initiatives has helped mitigate declines.

Different sub-sectors within the market have performed to varying degrees. Controls and heat pumps have seen growth, driven by consumer interest and government support. Investment in boilers and radiators has slowed due to tightening household finances and indications of slower delivery in public sector housing programs.

The UK has set ambitious targets for transitioning to more energy-efficient options, including hybrids and renewables like heat pumps. There are plans to ban the sale of 100% gas-only boilers by 2035, leading to anticipated growth in sustainable technologies. Manufacturers are preparing for these changes through new product development.

Key players in the market include Worcester Bosch, Vaillant, Ideal, Baxi (boilers), Stelrad, Purmo, Zehnder, Kudox (radiators), Danfoss, Siemens, Honeywell, Drayton (heating controls), British Gas (Hive), Google (Nest), Honeywell, Tado (smart controls), Daikin, Viessmann, Nibe, Bosch, Vaillant (heat pumps), Grundfos, Wilo (circulators).

Distribution channels primarily consist of merchants and electrical wholesalers, with online retailers and specialist heating companies also gaining share. Energy companies play an indirect role in the market.

CONTENTS

1. INTRODUCTION 7
1.1 CONTEXT 7
1.2 DEFINITION 7
1.3 ABBREVIATIONS 7
2. MARKET SUMMARY 9
2.1 MARKET SIZE (VALUE) 9
2.2 MARKET OVERVIEW 9
2.3 IMPORT/EXPORT 10
2.4 MARKET SPLITS 12
3. MARKET INFLUENCES & DRIVERS 13
3.1 MAIN MARKET INFLUENCES AND DRIVERS 13
3.2 POLITICAL INFLUENCES AND DRIVERS 13
3.3 ECONOMIC INFLUENCES AND DRIVERS 13
3.4 SOCIAL INFLUENCES AND DRIVERS 14
3.5 TECHNOLOGICAL INFLUENCES AND DRIVERS 14
3.6 LEGAL INFLUENCES AND DRIVERS 15
3.7 ENVIRONMENTAL INFLUENCES AND DRIVERS 17
4. END USE SECTORS 17
4.1 RMI SECTOR VERSUS NEW HOUSING ACTIVITY 17
4.2. PROSPECTS FOR HOUSING STARTS & COMPLETIONS 18
4.3. PENETRATION OF CENTRAL HEATING SYSTEMS 19
4.4. REPLACEMENT OF CENTRAL HEATING INSTALLATIONS VERSUS NEW HOUSING 20
5. MARKET SUB SECTORS 29
5.1 BOILERS AND CIRCULATORS MARKET SIZE (VALUE) 29
5.1.1 Boilers And Circulators Market summary 30
5.1.2 Boilers Product Mix By Category (Combination/Condensing, Traditional, System, Other) 30
5.1.3 Boilers Product Mix By Fuel Type 32
5.1.4 Boilers By Position (Wall Mounted, Floor Standing, Back Boilers) 34
5.1.5. Boilers And Circulators Suppliers / Key Players 34
5.2 RADIATORS MARKET SIZE (VALUE) 41
5.2.1 Radiators Market summary 42
5.2.2 Radiators Product Mix 43
5.2.3 Radiators Materials Mix 46
5.2.4 Radiators End Users 46
5.2.5 Radiators Suppliers / Key Players 47
5.3 HEATING CONTROLS MARKET SIZE (VALUE) 52
5.3.1 Heating Controls Market summary 53
5.3.2 Heating Controls Product Mix 55
5.3.3 Heating Controls Type Mix 55
5.3.4 Heating Controls End Users 59
5.3.5 Heating Controls / Key Players 59
5.4 HEAT PUMPS MARKET SIZE (VALUE) 67
5.4.1 Heat Pumps Market summary 68
5.4.2 Heat Pumps Product Mix 69
5.4.3 Heat Pumps Materials Mix 70
5.4.4 Heat Pumps End Users 72
5.4.5 Heat Pumps Suppliers / Key Players 72
6. DISTRIBUTION 79
6.1 MARKET STRUCTURE 79
6.2 MARKET SHARES BY CHANNEL 79
6.3 MERCHANTS 80
6.3.1. Channel definition 80
6.3.2. Key players 80
6.4 ELECTRICAL WHOLESALERS 82
6.4.1. Channel definition 82
6.4.2. Key players market share 82
6.5 HOME IMPROVEMENT MULTIPLES 84
6.5.1. Channel definition 84
6.5.2. Key players market share 84
6.6 ONLINE RETAILERS 85
6.6.1. Channel definition 85
6.6.2. Key players market share 85
6.7 OTHERS 86
6.7.1. Channel definition & Key Players 86
7. MARKET FORECASTS 87
7.1 MARKET PROSPECTS & INFLUENCES 87
7.2 TEN-YEAR MARKET VIEW (FIVE YEARS BACK, FIVE YEARS FORWARD) 88
7.3 BOILERS & CIRCULATORS MARKET FORECAST 89
7.4 RADIATORS MARKET FORECAST 90
7.5 HEATING CONTROLS MARKET FORECAST 91
7.6 HEAT PUMPS MARKET FORECAST 92
8. INNOVATION 93
8.1 INNOVATION 93
8.2 FUTURE SCENARIOS 94
RESEARCH SERVICES OFFERED BY AMA RESEARCH 96

TABLES & CHARTS

CHART 1: UK RESIDENTIAL CENTRAL HEATING MARKET BY VALUE (£M MSP) 2018-2023 EST 9
TABLE 2: IMPORTS OF BOILERS & RADIATORS, £M, 2018 – 2023 (YTD MARCH) 10
TABLE 3: BALANCE OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN BOILERS & RADIATORS, £M, 2022 11
CHART 4: MARKET MIX BY PRODUCT TYPE BY VALUE 2023 EST 12
CHART 5: RMI HOUSING VS NEW BUILD 2022, OUTPUT £BN (CURRENT PRICES) 18
TABLE 6: HOUSING OUTPUT, £M CURRENT PRICES, RMI VERSUS NEW HOUSEBUILDING, 2019 – 2025 18
TABLE 7: GB NEW HOUSING STARTS AND COMPLETIONS, (000’S) 2019 TO 2025F 19
CHART 8: PENETRATION OF BY TYPE WITHIN HOUSEHOLDS, ENGLAND & WALES, % 19
CHART 9: MARKET MIX BY TYPE OF CENTRAL HEATING INSTALLATION (REPLACEMENT, NEW HOUSING, FIRST TIME) BY VOLUME 2023 EST 20
CHART 10: PERCENTAGE OF HOUSEHOLDS WITH CENTRAL HEATING BY TENURE, 2021 (OCCUPIED DWELLINGS), ENGLAND & WALES 21
CHART 11: BOILER TYPES BY NUMBER OF DWELLINGS (000’S) 2021-2022 22
TABLE 12: MARKET MIX BY HOUSEHOLDS, MAIN FUEL TYPE USED IN CENTRAL HEATING, ENGLAND 2021 23
CHART 13: UK HOUSEHOLD PENETRATION OF SMART HEATING CONTROLS 2017, 2020, 2023 (EST) & 2025 FCST 24
TABLE 14: UK UNDERFLOOR HEATING MARKET – BY VALUE (£M MSP) 2019-2023 (BOTH DOMESTIC & RESIDENTIAL) 25
CHART 15: AVERAGE CURRENT & POTENTIAL ENERGY EFFICIENCY SCORES OF HOMES IN ENGLAND & WALES, BY TYPE OF PROPERTY, EPCS LODGED UP TO Y/E MARCH 2022 27
CHART 16: NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS SERVED BY A DISTRICT/COMMUNAL HEATING NETWORK, BY REGION IN ENGLAND & WALES 28
TABLE 17: UK RESIDENTIAL BOILER & CIRCULATORS MARKET BY VALUE (£M MSP) 2018-2023 29
CHART 18: BOILER MIX BY TYPE (COMBINATION, TRADITIONAL, SYSTEM, ETC.) BY VOLUME 2023 EST 31
CHART 19: BOILER SALES MIX BY TYPE OF FUEL (GAS-FIRED, OIL-FIRED, ELECTRIC, ETC.) BY VOLUME 2023 EST. 33
TABLE 20: % MARKET SHARES OF RESIDENTIAL BOILER SUPPLIERS, BY VALUE 2023 EST 34
TABLE 21: CIRCULATOR SUPPLIERS % MARKET SHARE – BY VALUE 2023 EST. 39
TABLE 22: UK RESIDENTIAL RADIATOR MARKET BY VALUE (£M MSP) 2018-2023 41
CHART 23: RADIATOR MIX BY TYPE (STANDARD, DESIGNER, TOWEL WARMERS) – BY VALUE 2023 EST 43
TABLE 24: RESIDENTIAL RADIATOR SUPPLIERS % MARKET SHARES – BY VALUE 2023 EST 47
TABLE 25: UK HEATING CONTROLS MARKET BY VALUE (£M MSP) 2018-2023 EST 52
CHART 26: HEATING CONTROLS MARKET – SMART & CONVENTIONAL; BY VALUE (£M MSP) 2018-2027 53
CHART 27: CONVENTIONAL HEATING CONTROLS PRODUCT MIX BY VALUE 2023 EST 55
TABLE 28: CONVENTIONAL HEATING CONTROLS – LEADING SUPPLIERS 2023 EST 60
TABLE 29: SMART HEATING CONTROLS – LEADING SUPPLIERS 2023 64
TABLE 30: UK RESIDENTIAL HEAT PUMPS MARKET BY VALUE (£M MSP) 2018-2023 EST (EXCL. INSTALLATION COSTS) 67
CHART 31: HEAT PUMP MIX BY TYPE (AIR-SOURCE, GROUND-SOURCE) – BY VOLUME 2016 AND 2023 EST 70
TABLE 32: LEADING RESIDENTIAL HEAT PUMPS SUPPLIERS 2023 73
CHART 33: UK RESIDENTIAL CENTRAL HEATING MARKET DISTRIBUTION, BY CHANNEL, VALUE 2023 EST 79
TABLE 34: UK RESIDENTIAL CENTRAL HEATING MARKET – BY VALUE (£M MSP) 2018-2027 FCST (EXCL INSTALLATION COSTS) 88
TABLE 35: UK BOILERS MARKET – BY VALUE (£M MSP) 2018-2027 FCST 89
TABLE 36: UK CIRCULATORS MARKET – BY VALUE (£M MSP) 2018-2027 FCST 90
TABLE 37: UK RESIDENTIAL RADIATORS- BY VALUE (£M MSP) 2018-2027 FCST 90
TABLE 38: UK RESIDENTIAL HEATING CONTROLS MARKET – BY VALUE (£M MSP) 2018-2027 FCST 91
TABLE 39: UK RESIDENTIAL HEAT PUMPS MARKET – BY VALUE (£M MSP) 2018-2027 FCST 92

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