Residential Central Heating Market Report - UK 2021-2025 - AMA Research

Residential Central Heating Market Report - UK 2021-2025

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The 15th edition of the ‘Residential Central Heating Market Report UK 2021-2025 Analysis’ has been published by AMA Research. The report represents an informed and up-to-date review of the residential central heating market and now includes heat pumps.

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The 15th edition of the ‘Residential Central Heating Market Report UK 2021-2025 Analysis’ has been published by AMA Research. The report represents an informed and up-to-date review of the residential central heating market and now includes heat pumps.

Key Issues Covered in the Report

  • Impact of increasing legislation.
  • Increasing focus on renewables.
  • Effects of COVID-19 and the UK exit from the EU,
  • The development of smart heating controls.

Areas of Particular Interest

With the UK Government target for carbon net zero emissions by 2050, residential central heating products will increasingly be designed to deliver improved thermal performance and produce lower carbon emissions.

Some Companies Featured In This Report

Worcester Bosch, Vaillant, Ideal, Baxi, Stelrad, Purmo, Zehnder, Kudox, Daikin, Nibe, Viessmann, British Gas (with Hive), Google (with Nest), Tado, Honeywell, Danfoss, Siemens, Grundfos, Wilo, MHS Radiators, Jaga, Vogue UK, Pitacs,  Biasi, Quinn Radiators, Abacus Direct, UK Heating Group, Heritage Bathrooms, Ultra Finishing, Porcelanosa

KEY AREAS COVERED IN THE REPORT

Market Overview

Historical background – influencing factors, legislation, economic influences etc.
Market size by value – central heating installations 2016-2020. Market prospects to 2025 and key influencing factors –, underfloor heating market, home energy efficiency trends, environmental legislation, community heating schemes etc.
Review of key factors influencing recent growth rates, new housing, legislation, product development etc.
Product mix – boilers, radiators, heat pumps, circulators, smart controls, conventional controls.
Ownership levels – penetration by sector, share by type of application, source of fuel
Renewable energy technologies – heat pumps, use of hydrogen, domestic RHI scheme, 2022 Clean Heat grant.

Product Sectors

Boilers – combination, traditional, system.
Heat pumps – air-source, ground-source.
Radiators – standard panel, decorative, towel warmers etc.
Circulators – stand-alone, boiler-integrated.
Heating controls – conventional, smart controls.

Market Prospects

Impact of increasing legislation regarding the efficiency and environmental impact of residential central heating systems – 2025 Future Homes Standard, Clean Growth Strategy, Part L 2020, SAP 10, Boiler Plus 2018 etc.
Increasing focus on renewables, particularly heat pumps, with requirement to replace fossil fuel boilers in new build homes and existing homes off the gas grid from 2025.
Development of smart heating controls – smart & learning thermostats, TRVs, advanced systems. With trend towards homeworking, smart zoned systems for daytime heating are in increasing demand.

Supply and Distribution

Review of major suppliers in all product sectors – major groups, leading companies, specialist suppliers. Company overview, key products, sectors and financial information.
Review of distribution structure illustrating direct supply and key channels including major companies in each channel.
Company overview and financials for key distributors. Major mix by channel – merchants, home improvement multiples, electrical wholesalers, online retailers, specialist companies, direct from manufacturer or via energy provider, OEMs etc.

The UK residential central heating market is substantial, with an estimated total value of around £1.2 billion at manufacturers’ prices in 2020. Over recent years this market has benefited from more stringent energy efficiency legislation and the introduction of new technologies such as smart heating controls.

In June 2019, the UK became the first major economy to pass laws to end its contribution to global warming. The target will require the UK to bring all greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2050. As a result, it is likely that the type of products used to centrally heat UK residential homes will change considerably in the near future. For example, the government Future Homes Standard, to be introduced by 2025, will require all new build homes to be future proofed with low carbon heating and world leading levels of energy efficiency. This will include the use of renewable heating technologies such as heat pumps as an alternative to boilers, and as such we have now included these in our market calculations.

Central heating is installed in around 92% of UK residential homes, with market penetration remaining at a similar level over the last 5 years. Gas-fired systems currently account for the majority of installations.

CONTENTS

RESEARCH SERVICES OFFERED BY AMA RESEARCH 3
1. INTRODUCTION 9
1.1 BACKGROUND 9
1.2 SOURCES OF INFORMATION 9
2. SUMMARY AND MARKET PROSPECTS 11
2.1 SUMMARY 11
2.2 KEY TRENDS 13
2.3 MARKET PROSPECTS 14
3. UK MARKET FOR RESIDENTIAL CENTRAL HEATING 16
3.1 DEFINITION 16
3.2 MARKET OVERVIEW 16
3.2.1 Market Size by Value 2016 – 2025 16
3.2.2 Product Mix (Boilers, Radiators, Circulators, Heat Pumps, Heating Controls) 17
3.2.3 Household Penetration 18
3.2.4 Type of Installation 21
3.2.5 Main Fuel Type 24
3.3 KEY MARKET INFLUENCES 26
3.3.1 Smart Home Heating Technologies 26
3.3.2 Underfloor Heating Market 27
3.3.3 Energy Efficiency Ratings 28
3.3.4 Environmental Legislation & Incentives 30
3.3.5 Community Heating Schemes 32
4. BOILERS & CIRCULATORS 34
4.1 MARKET OVERVIEW 34
4.1.1 Definition 34
4.1.2 Market Size by Value 2016 – 2025 34
4.1.3 Market Prospects 35
4.2 BOILER MARKET TRENDS 36
4.2.1 Fuel Used (Gas-fired, Oil-fired, Electric, Other) 36
4.2.2 Location (Wall Mounted, Floor Standing, Back Boilers) 37
4.2.3 Condensing Boilers 38
4.2.4 Boiler Plus Legislation 38
4.3 PRODUCT TRENDS 39
4.3.1 Boiler Product Mix 39
4.3.2 Boilers by Type (Combination, Traditional, System, Other) 40
4.3.3 Circulators Product Mix 42
4.3.4 Circulators by Type (Stand-alone, Boiler Integrated) 43
4.4 SUPPLIERS 44
4.4.1 Market Shares – Boilers 44
4.4.2 Market Shares – Circulators 45
4.4.3 Key Company Profiles 45
5. RADIATORS 50
5.1 MARKET OVERVIEW 50
5.1.1 Definition 50
5.1.2 Market Size by Value 2016 – 2025 50
5.1.3 Market Prospects 51
5.2 PRODUCT TRENDS 52
5.2.1 Product Mix 52
5.2.2 Radiators by Type (Standard, Decorative, Towel Warmers) 53
5.3 SUPPLIERS 56
5.3.1 Market Shares 56
5.3.2 Key Company Profiles 57
6. HEATING CONTROLS 60
6.1 MARKET OVERVIEW 60
6.1.1 Definition 60
6.1.2 Market Size by Value 2016 – 2025 60
6.1.3 Market Prospects 62
6.1.4 Legislative Requirements 63
6.2 PRODUCT TRENDS 64
6.2.1 Conventional Heating Controls 64
6.2.2 Smart Heating Controls 68
6.3 SUPPLIERS 71
6.3.1 Market Shares – Conventional Heating Controls 71
6.3.2 Key Company Profiles – Conventional Heating Controls 71
6.3.3 Market Shares – Smart Heating Controls 73
6.3.4 Key Company Profiles – Smart Heating Controls 73
7. HEAT PUMPS 76
7.1 MARKET OVERVIEW 76
7.1.1 Definition 76
7.1.2 Market Size by Value 2016 – 2025 76
7.1.3 Market Prospects 78
7.2 PRODUCT TRENDS 79
7.2.1 Product Mix 79
7.2.2 Heat Pumps by Type (Air-source, Ground-source) 80
7.3 SUPPLIERS 82
7.3.1 Leading Players 82
7.3.2 Key Company Profiles 82
8. DISTRIBUTION 86
8.1 CHANNEL SHARES 86
8.2 KEY COMPANIES 87
8.2.1 Merchants 87
8.2.2 Electrical Wholesalers 89
8.2.3 Home Improvement Multiples 89
8.2.4 Online Retailers and Others 90
APPENDICES 92
APPENDIX A: ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT 92
A.1 OVERVIEW AND OUTLOOK 92
A.2 GDP 92
A.3 INFLATION & INTEREST RATES 94
A.4 EMPLOYMENT & WAGES 95
A.5 HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION 96
A.6 STERLING 97
APPENDIX B: GLOSSARY OF TERMS 99

TABLES & CHARTS

CHART 1: UK RESIDENTIAL CENTRAL HEATING MARKET BY VALUE AND FORECASTS (£M MSP) 2016-2025 11
TABLE 2: UK RESIDENTIAL CENTRAL HEATING MARKET – BY VALUE (£M MSP) 2016-2025 17
CHART 3: MARKET MIX BY PRODUCT TYPE BY VALUE 2020 18
CHART 4: PERCENTAGE OF UK HOUSEHOLDS WITH CENTRAL HEATING 1996, 2006 AND 2019 19
CHART 5: PERCENTAGE OF UK HOUSEHOLDS WITH CENTRAL HEATING BY TENURE 2019 20
CHART 6: NUMBER OF UK HOUSEHOLDS WITH CENTRAL HEATING BY BOILER TYPE (000’S) 2019 21
CHART 7: MARKET MIX BY TYPE OF INSTALLATION (REPLACEMENT, NEW HOUSING, FIRST TIME) BY VOLUME 2020 22
TABLE 8: NEW HOUSING STARTS AND COMPLETIONS (ENGLAND, WALES AND SCOTLAND) (000’S) 2015 TO 2024 23
CHART 9: MARKET MIX BY HOUSEHOLD MAIN FUEL TYPE IN ENGLAND 2019 24
CHART 10: UK HOUSEHOLD PENETRATION OF SMART HEATING CONTROLS 2017, 2020 & 2025 26
TABLE 11: UK UNDERFLOOR HEATING MARKET – BY VALUE (£M MSP) 2019-2023 27
CHART 12: AVERAGE CO2 EMISSIONS OF NEW AND EXISTING HOUSING IN ENGLAND 2014 & 2020 29
CHART 13: % HOUSEHOLDS SERVED BY A COMMUNITY HEATING SCHEME BY REGION 2020 33
TABLE 14: UK RESIDENTIAL BOILER & CIRCULATORS MARKET BY VALUE (£M MSP) 2016-2025 34
CHART 15: BOILER SALES MIX BY TYPE OF FUEL (GAS-FIRED, OIL-FIRED, ELECTRIC, ETC.) BY VOLUME 2020 36
CHART 16: BOILER MIX BY TYPE (COMBINATION, TRADITIONAL, SYSTEM, ETC.) BY VOLUME 2020 40
CHART 17: CIRCULATOR PRODUCT MIX (BOILER-INTEGRATED, STAND-ALONE) – BY VOLUME 2020 42
TABLE 18: RESIDENTIAL BOILER SUPPLIERS % MARKET SHARES – BY VALUE 2020 44
TABLE 19: CIRCULATOR SUPPLIERS % MARKET SHARE – BY VALUE 2020 45
TABLE 20: UK RESIDENTIAL RADIATOR MARKET BY VALUE (£M MSP) 2016-2025 50
CHART 21: RADIATOR MIX BY TYPE (STANDARD, DESIGNER, TOWEL WARMERS) – BY VALUE 2020 53
TABLE 22: RESIDENTIAL RADIATOR SUPPLIERS % MARKET SHARES – BY VALUE 2020 56
TABLE 23: UK HEATING CONTROLS MARKET BY VALUE (£M MSP) 2016-2025 61
CHART 24: HEATING CONTROLS MARKET – SMART & CONVENTIONAL; BY VALUE (£M MSP) 2016-2025 62
CHART 25: CONVENTIONAL HEATING CONTROLS PRODUCT MIX BY VALUE 2020 65
TABLE 26: CONVENTIONAL HEATING CONTROLS – LEADING SUPPLIERS 2020 71
TABLE 27: SMART HEATING CONTROLS – LEADING SUPPLIERS 2020 73
TABLE 28: UK RESIDENTIAL HEAT PUMPS MARKET BY VALUE (£M MSP) 2016-2025 77
CHART 29: HEAT PUMP MIX BY TYPE (AIR-SOURCE, GROUND-SOURCE) – BY VOLUME 2016 AND 2020 80
TABLE 30: LEADING RESIDENTIAL HEAT PUMPS SUPPLIERS 2020 82
CHART 31: UK RESIDENTIAL CENTRAL HEATING MARKET DISTRIBUTION BY CHANNEL BY VALUE 2020 86
CHART A1: GVA CHAINED VOLUME MEASURES, 2015-2020, KEY CONSTITUENT ELEMENTS 94
CHART A2: CPI INFLATION AND BANK OF ENGLAND BASE RATE, 2008-2023 95
CHART A3: AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS DATA – GB – TOTAL PAY – 2014-2019 (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED) 96
CHART A4: DI PER CAPITA & SAVINGS RATIO AT CURRENT PRICES 2008-2023 96
CHART A5: EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONS 2015-2019, STERLING TO THE DOLLAR AND THE EURO, SPOT RATES 97

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